Wednesday December 21, 2011
Posted at 10:42 am by Howard
.This is just a quick update:
Here is some statistics on winters over the past 42 years in relation to dry beginnings up through New Years and the rest of the Ski Season.
Counting this December, if Mammoth Mt does not receive anymore snowfall through the end of the year, we will have received 51.5 inches of snowfall since October 1, 2011. Over the past 42 years, there has been only one year out of ten, that at the end of the ski season, we received “equal to or greater than”, a normal amount of snowfall for the season. That was the winter of 1999-2000 when 382.7 inches fell. Again, if we do not get any more snowfall up until New Years Day, there is only a 1 and 10 chance for a normal winters worth or greater amount of snowfall for the season based upon 42 years of data.
Outlook:
Last Nights models ECMWF and this mornings 12Z GFS, still has that phantom system coming in by the end of the year. Actually, beginning next week, a strong pacific jet makes its way into the pacific NW. The NW will get wet! This is normal for a La Nina year!
A new weather (PATTERN) type begins Christmas Day. Mammothweather has said that there is a chance of some over running next week and that a phantom system was in the cards for the end of the year. However, like was said a few days ago, it is not being taken seriously at this time. What we have this morning from the operational run of the ECMWF is a strong short wave diving through California next Thursday the 29th…and the GFS showing Short Wave wet Storm action coming into the Pacific NW and diving through Northern Calif the second half of next week. The GFS has a series of waves coming into the NW then slowly sagging south with time. Time will tell in future model runs if this STORM is for real or just a tease/heartache for our locals; that is if these short waves will get far enough south to effect Mammoth. As indicated earlier, I will know a bit better by Christmas Eve.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs
Posted at 10:42 am by Howard
.This is just a quick update:
Here is some statistics on winters over the past 42 years in relation to dry beginnings up through New Years and the rest of the Ski Season.
Counting this December, if Mammoth Mt does not receive anymore snowfall through the end of the year, we will have received 51.5 inches of snowfall since October 1, 2011. Over the past 42 years, there has been only one year out of ten, that at the end of the ski season, we received “equal to or greater than”, a normal amount of snowfall for the season. That was the winter of 1999-2000 when 382.7 inches fell. Again, if we do not get any more snowfall up until New Years Day, there is only a 1 and 10 chance for a normal winters worth or greater amount of snowfall for the season based upon 42 years of data.
Outlook:
Last Nights models ECMWF and this mornings 12Z GFS, still has that phantom system coming in by the end of the year. Actually, beginning next week, a strong pacific jet makes its way into the pacific NW. The NW will get wet! This is normal for a La Nina year!
A new weather (PATTERN) type begins Christmas Day. Mammothweather has said that there is a chance of some over running next week and that a phantom system was in the cards for the end of the year. However, like was said a few days ago, it is not being taken seriously at this time. What we have this morning from the operational run of the ECMWF is a strong short wave diving through California next Thursday the 29th…and the GFS showing Short Wave wet Storm action coming into the Pacific NW and diving through Northern Calif the second half of next week. The GFS has a series of waves coming into the NW then slowly sagging south with time. Time will tell in future model runs if this STORM is for real or just a tease/heartache for our locals; that is if these short waves will get far enough south to effect Mammoth. As indicated earlier, I will know a bit better by Christmas Eve.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs
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