Mammoth forecaster says storming soon

[donbrown]

A full latitude upper Trof is expectred to develop by the 17th/18th over the West Coast according to both ECMWF and the GFS. Considering the support of the GSDM and MJO…..the Dweebs regard this as a high confidence outlook even a full week away…… Additionally, the PNA is now forcasted to become negitive. Western Trof/Eastern Ridge….La Nina Style……Winter is setting in……….

Evwen though a week away "models" predict storm will be here 17-20 NOV.

Ya another Thursday thru Sunday but this is the "FIRST GOOD SNOW" prediction by the Mammoth forecaster

 

[R J snow]

Thanks for your weather updates and analysis.Hows the healing going?

 

[donbrown]

Thanks for your weather updates and analysis.Hows the healing going?

DR says tendons are good, top of rotator still healing where the bone spur was located.
First day of moving the shoulder was Friday ... felt really good after 6 weeks of cramps !!!!

 

[donbrown]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
722 PM PST SUN NOV 13 2011

AT TIMES TO CENTRAL CA. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL THRU AT LEAST THURS.

LONGWAVE RIDGING TO FCST TO BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PAC BY THURS 17 NOV THEN
MOVE INTO THE GLFAK BY SAT. 19 NOV THIS FORCES A FAIRLY COLD TROF TO DIG
SOUTH ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

AS THE TROF DEEPENS
SOUTHWARD THE FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL CA WILL TURN TO THE SW-W. A

WEAK SUBTROP JET IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CA.
THE INTERACTION OF THE DIGGING TROF AND SUBTROP JET BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


THIS WILL BE A COLD TROF WHEN IT ARRIVES...AND SNOW LEVELS COULD
BE THE LOWEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THE SNOW LEVEL IN ADVANCE OF
THE TROF WILL BE ABOVE 8K...BUT LOWER TO AROUND 5K FRI. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU CENTRAL CA FRI WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SECONDARY TROF MOVES SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE MEAN TROF. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER RE-ENFORCEMENT OF THE COLD
AIR...

WHICH WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL 2000 TO 3000 FEET ON SAT 19 NOV.

RENO GIVES A SIMILAR FORECAST FROM LASSEN SOUTH

 

[donbrown]

MAMMOTHWEATHER.COM Monday 14 NOV

Central Pacific Ridging develops by Thursday 17 NOV. A cold upper level trof carves out along the west coast Friday 18 NOV with the first cold front moving through Central Ca Friday.

Moderate snowfall is possible Friday 18 NOV EVENING. This will bring the coldest weather of the year so far by Saturday 19 NOV.

At the moment, the ECMWF has a more over water trajectory with this first system as compared to the GFS. So the GFS is drier and the EC is wetter. More often then not, a compromise solution results and so for the time being, a good guess for a about foot seems reasonable by Saturday morning. Once we get closer in time, the Dweebs will fine tune. Additionally, the models are advertizing some modified Arctic air into Ca by Saturday……so this will be an especially cold storm as well.

POSSIBLE staging for a major snow event around 22-23 NOV the “Thanksgiving Holiday” Stay tuned

 

[shredder]

MAMMOTHWEATHER.COM Monday 14 NOV

Central Pacific Ridging develops by Thursday 17 NOV. A cold upper level trof carves out along the west coast Friday 18 NOV with the first cold front moving through Central Ca Friday.

Moderate snowfall is possible Friday 18 NOV EVENING. This will bring the coldest weather of the year so far by Saturday 19 NOV.

At the moment, the ECMWF has a more over water trajectory with this first system as compared to the GFS. So the GFS is drier and the EC is wetter. More often then not, a compromise solution results and so for the time being, a good guess for a about foot seems reasonable by Saturday morning. Once we get closer in time, the Dweebs will fine tune. Additionally, the models are advertizing some modified Arctic air into Ca by Saturday……so this will be an especially cold storm as well.

POSSIBLE staging for a major snow event around 22-23 NOV the “Thanksgiving Holiday” Stay tuned

stop teasing us.

 

[shredder]

is that big yellow stripe what you are alluding to?
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeswestpacusir.html

 

[donbrown]

is that big yellow stripe what you are alluding to?
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeswestpacusir.html

Yes plus the cold from Alaska and the moisture LAT to Baja

Mammoth says Fri-Sun 18-20 Nov storm 6in to a foot. With a 1-3 inch dusting in Bishop

Truckee at 100% chance for storm
Mammoth at 80%
Susanville at 90%
SLC UT 70%
KERN 70%
LA at 50%


It gonna get cold this weekend Fri-Sun ... single digits at 7000 feet

Still trying to figuire out Thanksgiving storm

 

[donbrown]

Reno forecaster says dusting to "valley" floor and up to a foot around

Truckee during the day on FRIDAY 18 NOV Single digit temps on Saturday morning at 7000 feet

 

[donbrown]

Los Angeles Forecaster says ... Looks like the bulk of this weekend storm 18-20 NOV will dump the moisture into the ocean because the low pressure system will not make it to shore.



If it comes inland .... a real dumping where ever it hits but now 1/4 to 1 rain which equates to 3 inches to a foot of blowing powder !



Just gonna get cold !

 

[GarlandM8]

Yup, looks to stay off shore like last weekend....... only a couple inches forecasted now for Mammoth.....

But confidence is still high for a wet system over Turkey Day weekend.... maybe a foot or better they say......... we'll see

These "coastal-hugger", cut off Lows suck....

 

[donbrown]

Yup, looks to stay off shore like last weekend....... only a couple inches forecasted now for Mammoth.....

But confidence is still high for a wet system over Turkey Day weekend.... maybe a foot or better they say......... we'll see

These "coastal-hugger", cut off Lows suck....

Ya bummer ... now they say a few inches ... and not a foot.

Well its gonna be cold for the weekend

 

[donbrown]

New post later today ... storms are splitting up in the ocean prior to reaching land.

Top part of storm is pounding ID UT CO MN ND and we are getting the bottom part of storm from ALASKA.

The bottom part is dumping all the moisture prior to getting on land.

Next storm SAT -SUN 19-20 NOV

Then Thanksgiving 24 NOV

Then monday 28 NOV

Weather forecasters are saying the "model projection" are only accurate for 48 hours.

So a good storm will be on very short notice and likely to be underestimated prior to its arrival , that is if it is a "split system"

 

[donbrown]

Mammoth says storms are fading ... on a bright side it's snow a few states

above us pretty good.

I'm getting bummed from no DEEP snow to ride on

Road trip?

 

[donbrown]

Arghh ! Snow flurries next 48 (23-25 NOV wed-FRI) hours then a major high pressure system over CAlifornia.

High pressure keeps the moisture away For how long .... into December


Looking at the NOAA interactive snow the most snow in California is SHASTA. Never rode there so don't know real conditions.

Rest of state seems to have 2 feet or less around Whitney.

Also NOAA interactive snow map shows tons of snow in BC some in OR, UT, ID , WY , and Colorado. But looking in detail it appears you need to know where to go for snow cause it is not at a uniform depth ... even around West Yellowstone

Here is the NOAA interactive snow map link on this page already set up for snow depth.

http://www.sugarloafers.com/weather.html

Scroll down on page till you see NOAA interactive snow Website clink on it and it will take you there.

REDRAW the map WITH TOMORROW'S DATE to get current information

This this page already set up for snow depth and all you do is take mouse and left click and drag over area you want detail of. Is it accurate to a square mile and refreshed at least every hour.

You casn hit SNOTEL stations by clicking the Query ... arrow with the letter i. Then the mouse cursor changes and when you go over a snotel station the identifing address apprears. If you click omn a snotel a new windows screen will pop up and give you a graphic historical weather report

 

[Twostroke]

What's the forecast now? I need to make a trip to Tahoe..

 

[REDLINEBILL]

Clear and dry for the next week at least.

 

[donbrown]

What's the forecast now? I need to make a trip to Tahoe..

Clear skies above normal temps till DEC. Then a cold dry spell 1st week DEC temps 20's 40's.

No major storms ( only measured in inches) in forecast ... not even a trend for storms to be possible.

Not much snow on the ground to go off trail ... or even on trail

 

[shredder]

Clear skies above normal temps till DEC. Then a cold dry spell 1st week DEC temps 20's 40's.

No major storms ( only measured in inches) in forecast ... not even a trend for storms to be possible.

Not much snow on the ground to go off trail ... or even on trail

sorry don, but you get a thumbs down for that post....

 

[donbrown]

sorry don, but you get a thumbs down for that post....

It sucks ... but it is the truth !

What am I suppose to say to the fellow rider?

At least I didn't mention the wind advisory from Tahoe to Los Angeles with gusts over the crest at 100 MPH and up to 80 MPH in the valleys the next 48 hours along with temps dropping