Saturday, October 10, 2009 6:07:06 AM
"AFTER A FAIR WEEKEND......MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS INDECATED BY CURRENT MODEL RUNS"
ALL GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CONSISTANT IN BRINGING REMENENTS FOR OLD TYPHOON MELOR AS WELL AS ITS DYNAMICS ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS MOISTURE. CERTAINLY, THIS IS ONE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS FORCASTED TO EFFECT THE WEST IN MANY YEARS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER....KEEPING IN MIND THAT IF THIS STORM WERE TO ARRIVE IN JANUARY, IT WOULD BE NO BIG DEAL.
THE DWEEBS FIND THE TRANSITION TO THE WET PATTERN PRETTY INTERESTING IN THE MODELS. THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE AT 135WEST WILL REALLY GET AMPLIFIED AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PLOWS EASTWARD. THE BREAK THROUGH OF THE WESTERLIES OCCURS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT ABOUT 135WEST AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND UPPER FLOW HEAD ACROSS BAJA CA.
THEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE PINCHES TO A CUTOFF HIGH THAT BUBBLES UP OVER ALASKA....A CONTINENTIAL UPPER LOW OUT OF CANADA RETROGRADES UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AND COUPLES WITH THE REMNENT TYPHOON SYSTEM WHICH SETS UP A 982 SURFACE BOMB OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT....ALL THE WHILE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA GETS HAMMERED WITH NEEDED RAINFALL.
UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN QPF IS FORECASTED FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA CREST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SO THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CREST COULD REACH BETWEEN 120MPH AND 140MPH OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA.
AS A NOTE:
THERE ARE STILL SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS BRINGS A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE STATE WHICH WOULD BEGIN ON THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
IN CONTRAST.....THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OFTEN TIMES WE WILL SEE A BLEND OF THE TWO AND IN THIS CASE, GIVING MAMMOTH ITS FAIR SHARE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
REMEMBER, 500MB HEIGHTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 564DM WITH THICKENSSES DOWN TO ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 560S. THAT'S A SNOW LEVEL ABOUT 9000 TO 8000 FEET WITH TYPICAL NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM. IN THE CASE OF THIS SYSTEM....THIS AIRMASS WILL GET PRETTY SATURATED AT 700MB AND WITH ALL THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT.....FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER THEN USUAL. THUS IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH ALL RAIN IN THE TOWN OF MAMMOTH.
THE DWEEBS WILL CHECK OUT THE DETAILS AGAIN SUNDAY AM AND REPORT ON KMMT SUNDAY MORNING AT 8:50AM.
