Long range forecasts could cause a stroke!

[jerrydecoy]

Is it just me or do long range forecasts suck ars? I find myself getting excited about the thought of some fresh this time of year and I'm constantly checking accu weathers 25 day forecast. It amazes me how I'm like a kid in a candy store when I see 10" of new snow 18 days out only to have it turn to partly sunny and 50 three days later.
Maybe it's a conspiracy within the snowmobile industry to get me to buy more after market products? It seems to work cuz I do it every year. I'm not sure why I watch the weather because they can barely get the 3 day forecast right let alone 25! I guess its human nature to believe the things we want to happen and call bs on the things we don't. I'd better check accu weather again!

 

[alt]

My Advice for what its worth. Dont listen to the farmers Almanac or watch the weather long range f cast. They only lead to a trip to the doctor for medication. I havent checked the snotel for awhile but here it looks very promising. It could be that mother nature is just a railroad worker walking around looking busy with the high country socked in a lot lately and cold, but if so ive taken the bait. Seems like we went from a normal indian summer every year to not and right into winter around here since mid September. No worries, it for all of us will come. Thanks!
Dan

 

[fitler]

Don't drive your self crazy. There is no accurate way to predict Snow totals expecially over the long term. In colorado we have Joel at opensnow.com and he is awesome. He gives it to you straight and provides models and graphics to show what is happening and why he is making his prediction. He is very consistent but does not give long term forecasts becuase even he has not idea what could happen before the storm arrives. SNOW

 

[Jeff800]

I don't watch the "Weatherman" anymore, only the channels with a Women reporting the weather. That way when the forecast sucks I at least feel I got something.

 

[snengineer]

Accuweather and similar sights is like watching CNN during an election, dang entertaining but frustrating if you want facts.

Here are a few good places to watch for snow reports. Powderchasers.com. Weather.gov. NWS climate outlook.

Another place for the weather geek, GFS. NAM Is pretty accurate but only 3 days out. This is where the tv weather people get there information. But again it's for geeks.

 

[POLZIN]

The weather girl is the only reason I watch the weather !SO HOT!

 

[R J]

I used to watch the forecasts way out and I still look at them a bit to see what the general idea is, not actually what they are predicting on any given day however as that just leads to disappointment.

Best is to not pay attention to it and be surprised when it does come down!

Things in the long range prediction office of most sites look to be on the same thinking which is good. I'm in the Midwest and it could be a normal winter here. Hope so.

 

[sabels]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...map=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text#.UnbXOWt5mSN

Weather.gov allows you to get the forecast for elevation also. If you look on the right side under forecast details you will see a link for forecast discussion, click and read and it will help make sense of the forcast. By far and above weather.gov is the most accurate and dependable for us weather geeks. In-accuweather.com is not! Over time by comparing weather.com,weather underground, accuweather, and weather.gov I found forcast accuracy of weather.gov to be the best. Just my .02$ though.

 

[Jorli]

I've always joked (sort of) that there is a great class action suit to be made against the weather services. I think one winter, I literally watched them call it wrong every single day for 3 months straight. If only I could find a job where I'd got paid to make sh%t up all the time- Actually, come to think of it I guess I do, its called film production.....So what do you think? snowmobilers vs. weather services??? Anyone care to offer their legal opinion? Do we have a case? haha!

 

[jerrydecoy]

I do watch the noaa site quite a bit because I do like being able to get the forecast for different elevations. Although better then accuweather, noaa can foul it up as well. I'm sure long range weather is not easy to predict but it just seems that they are wrong more often then right.

 

[dgreet77]

Weather service also does the "point forecasts" so you can click on the map in the spot you are interested in. I find they are decently accurate, even in remote areas.