Lets hope they are wrong...

[White Rad]

Just looked at the latest climate prediction center maps for this winter and they show the NW is generally above normal or normal temps and below average precipitation. Cali looks like what we had last year with below normal temps and above normal precipitation. We all know its impossible to predict anything that far out but it sure makes you feel better when they are hyping up the cold wet winter over the warm dry!

 

[newtrout]

Standard El Nino prediction. Fortunately it doesn't look very strong.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

[byeatts]

Just looked at the latest climate prediction center maps for this winter and they show the NW is generally above normal or normal temps and below average precipitation. Cali looks like what we had last year with below normal temps and above normal precipitation. We all know its impossible to predict anything that far out but it sure makes you feel better when they are hyping up the cold wet winter over the warm dry!

Cali last year was bone dry. 20 inches precip in central Sierras and normal is 50 inches. Not sure where you get your info?

 

[White Rad]

Cali last year was bone dry. 20 inches precip in central Sierras and normal is 50 inches. Not sure where you get your info?

Im not talking about last year....the prediction for this year for cali is normal or cooler temps and above normal precip (like they predicted for us last year) while the PNW is above normal temps and below average precip. Got my info from the only useful source on the matter NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Here is for Dec-Jan-Feb:

Jan-Feb-Mar:

 

[PowderMiner]

I haven’t modeled it yet this year, but it would show a higher probability of a less than average snow year based on current and forecasted ENSO conditions.

but... just based on my personal observations, it seems that we get decent snow events, during positive ENSO periods, when the ENSO is going down. (spring 2009)

I know i don’t have time this year, but that would be another good model to build; the snow fall rate (monthly, weekly or 3 storm events, etc.) vs. ENSO rising/falling rate.

Someone has to have a smart kid with some math or science extra credit desires that could do this??? I'd send them my Excel mess (lost most of it when old computer crashed) for a start or an example of de minimis. Good historic data sets of snow are Paradise, Snoqualmie, other snotel. recent data for storm specific is NWS http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/interactive/html/map.html use date selection at any snowtel or modeled site.