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It's Spring till Spring then storms for a WEEK

donbrown

Well-known member
Lifetime Membership
Scarce Scattered showers expected up/down Sierra's MON -TUES

TURNING FAIR TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. WARMER DAY'S ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN MAMMOTH LAKES. LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE 20S. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES OVER THE CREST.

Storm conditions commencing 21 MARCH and may last till April.

NEED ABOUT 8.5 INCHES OF WATER TO BRING THE SNOW PACK TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGE

LA NINA STILL APPEARS TO BE IN CONTROL.


Monday, March 16, 2009 9:16:31 AM

"EXPECT A BREEZY CLOUDY DAY TODAY.....GIVING WAY TO CALMER CONDITIONS ST. PATTY'S DAY......SOME NUISANCE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY...THEN A STRETCH OF FAIR WX MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SERIES OF STORMS BEGINNING "ABOUT" SATURDAY NIGHT...SPRING ROLL'S IN LIKE A LION"


LATEST MONDAY 300MB WRF ANALYSIS SHOWED A 130 KNOT UPPER JET INTO OREGON/WASHINGTON/NORTHERN IDAHO. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER JET IS PRETTY FAR TO THE NORTH FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE 700RH FIELDS CLEARLY INDICATED A 50% RH ISOPLETH BANKED UP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY SIERRA. AS THE DESERT HEATING KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON, BREEZES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE TODAY, ONLY A TRACE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN TODAY WITH GUST TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CREST. THE UPPER JET WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKENING, SO THE WEATHER WILL "MELLOW OUT" FOR TOMORROW ST PATTY'S DAY.

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL DE-AMPLIFY OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG WITH THE WEATHER TURNING FAIR TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. WARMER DAY'S ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN MAMMOTH LAKES. LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE 20S. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES OVER THE CREST.

THE LONGER RANGE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING A REKINDLING OF A QUASI WET PATTERN BEGINNING THE END OF THIS WEEK....LASTING INTO VERY EARLY APRIL. THE DWEEBS WOULD LIKE TO SEE ONE MORE SERIES OF STORMS BEFORE MOTHER NATURE LIFTS THE UPPER JET OUT FOR GOOD. WE STILL NEED ABOUT 8.5 INCHES OF WATER TO BRING THE SNOW PACK TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGE.....SO THERE IS STILL TIME.

OF NOTE:

LA NINA STILL APPEARS TO BE IN CONTROL. A NEW RESURGENCE OF SST COOLING OFF THE EQUATORIAL COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS CLEARLY EVIDENT, DURING A TIME WHERE USUALLY THIS SIGNAL IS WEAKENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DANCE OF LA NINA MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER YEAR AND FURTHER THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE PDO. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE....WINTERS CAN END EARLIER WITH LA NINA'S CONDITIONS HERE IN MAMMOTHS WHILE SUMMER'S ARE OFTEN HOTTER HERE IN THE EASTERN SIERRA. IT IS A GOOD THING WE RECEIVED A MUCH BETTER SNOW PACK IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS WINTER.
 
Weather report projects the following

Los Angeles 20 % CHANCE 21 MARCH HIGH 68 LOW 42
Kernville 20 % CHANCE 21 MARCH HIGH 53 LOW 38
Mammoth Lakes 30 % CHANCE 21 MARCH HIGH 41 LOW 20
Truckee 40 % CHANCE 21 MARCH HIGH 40 LOW 10
Chester 60 % CHANCE 21 MARCH HIGH 50 LOW 26

No amount or snow elevations declared
 
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