Is it beginning to look alot like storming?
- Thread starter donbrown
- Start date
we need snow soooo badly right now.
is there a legend describing what the colors indicate? i see the bar graph on edge of page. is that inches of rainfall,snow?
Thanks
Thanks
the weather moves naturally from west to east
blue nothing red alot black holy cow
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Winter Storm Atticus Dumped Up to 21 Inches of Snow in the Twin Cities; Great Lakes Damaging Wind Threat | The Weather Channel
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Temperatures going below normal for protracted period of time as WX pattern shifts into active mode…..MJO shifts into phase 7 then phase 8 with possible Major AR resulting for Ca around Christmas….question is Where?
December 8, 2021
So the long awaited Active Pattern is shaping up nicely. Upper high in the right position feeding short waves via AK south east into long wave trof. The combo of the Thursday storm and the Sunday night through Tuesday night may dump some 6 feet of snow on the upper mountain. Amounts forecasted will adjust over the next few days so stay tuned as there is an decent, categorically weak AR with it and so amounts can change up or down.
The main point here is that the long wave appears to be locked in for a few weeks. Shure glad I was not one of those dry foot long range forecasters touting doom and gloom! Last month I shared a scientific paper about La Niña, and the negative phase of the QBO. One of the points in the research paper was that there was a stronger correlation for the MJO to continue east, past that LA Nina area of upper convergence into the central pacific, Phases 7/8. More frequent strato warms too. Last winter the MJO ran out of gas over the western pacific. What the current forecast suggests is that it will remain strong into phase 8. The results deepen the PV over NE Asia and pump the central pacific ridge to kingdom come. Eventually cutting off the high with the potential of a southern stream jet into CA later this month. This suggests; 1st a lot of snowfall for the Sierra up to about The 22nd. Then if the MJO actually makes it strong into phase 8, the “the potential of a very significant AR for a part of CA. This is a teleconnection, not a forecast so just sit back and enjoy the big snow producing storms for the next 6 to 10 days. By the time we get to week 2 the models will let us know if a large AR is in the offering……. California needs the water so let’s hope we get lots. Just hope it does not turn to rain
Radar Data
Level-II and Level-III NEXRAD data include three meteorological base data quantities: reflectivity, mean radial velocity, and spectrum width as well as 40+ products generated using computer algorithms.
www.ncei.noaa.gov
Right now we(east Idaho) are in noman's land for snow. Storm are going to go North or south of us till Ocean currents and jet stream change
SnowMegeddon! Week two suggesting storm after storm through years end!
December 12, 2021
So the models are in this afternoon and all are in agreement that the pattern will remain active through the 28th. It will not snow everyday as there looks to be a break developing some time next Friday into Sunday. The QPF suggests a solid 10 inches of water through next Friday. Somewhere between 8 and 10 feet of snowfall over the upper elevations for Mammoth MT is still reasonable for the combined two storms. There looks to be a break next weekend., however, the following week will bring the opportunity for more moderate to heavy snow producing storms as well. Next week the main the upper jet seems to favor the southern half of the state more than Northern California. Good for both the Southern and Central Sierra, Good for Mammoth! . Amounts will be updated later this week but preliminary Est are some 4 to 6 inches of water, (without a major AR). I say that as although all model runs do not show a major AR in many runs, there are enough ensemble members that still have it considered, so only time will resolve this issue. If we do have a Moderate or Strong AR, then all bets off on snowfall next week as it will be, “Snow Megeddon!” Most likely time frame around Christmas.
This Monday Tuesday storm has a very low end moderate AR (barely Level 2) So far, it appears that this Monday-Tuesday storm will bring the heaviest snowfall totals in the shortest period of time.
BTW, the IVT forecasts from the GFS show the potential for a weak AR on the 23rd and the European, a moderate AR on the 26th. It seems that the idea of a significant AR keeps is still in the cards, it is still possible and until we get closer to the week 2 period, we can only watch with interest.
In the meantime, I expect Mammoth Mt to have the best Christmas and New Years Week skiing, in several years!!
Happy Holidays!!
3-5 feet by 15 dec maybe another 6-10 feet 20thru 25 dec
www.ncei.noaa.gov
Radar Data
Level-II and Level-III NEXRAD data include three meteorological base data quantities: reflectivity, mean radial velocity, and spectrum width as well as 40+ products generated using computer algorithms.
www.ncei.noaa.gov
December 12, 2021
12/13/2021 730pm PST
Todays guidance and the ensembles, continue the trend, that this stormy period for California is just beginning and that it is likely to continue beyond Christmas. The main point here is that the eastern pacific ridge “retrogrades” during week 2 ) next week and that pulls the long wave west for more storms with good moisture taps. Snow Megeddon is an eastern colloquial term that is being used for not one storm but the accumulation of many between today and years end. There is a particularly large one, that will possibly hit around Christmas, the timing will be better kn own by this weeks end, A lot will depend upon how strong the AR is. There seems to be several weak ARs in store for the high country through years end.
12/13/2021 730pm PST
Todays guidance and the ensembles, continue the trend, that this stormy period for California is just beginning and that it is likely to continue beyond Christmas. The main point here is that the eastern pacific ridge “retrogrades” during week 2 ) next week and that pulls the long wave west for more storms with good moisture taps. Snow Megeddon is an eastern colloquial term that is being used for not one storm but the accumulation of many between today and years end. There is a particularly large one, that will possibly hit around Christmas, the timing will be better kn own by this weeks end, A lot will depend upon how strong the AR is. There seems to be several weak ARs in store for the high country through years end.
Gonna snow for most of whats left of December in California ... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1431475251
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