I see STORM ... de storm ... de storm
- Thread starter donbrown
- Start date
CalTrans will close the gates on both hwy's 108 & hwy 4 tomorrow at the Sno-Parks 
SR 4
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA]
WILL BE CLOSED FROM 0.5 MI EAST OF THE JCT OF SR 207 /MT REBA TURNOFF/ TO
THE JCT OF SR 89 /EBBETTS PASS/ (ALPINE CO) AT 1200 HRS ON 1/18/12 - DUE TO
INCOMING STORM - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE
SR 108
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
WILL BE CLOSED FROM 7.2 MI EAST OF STRAWBERRY TO 5.3 MI WEST OF THE
JCT OF US 395 /SONORA PASS/ (TUOLUMNE,MONO CO) AT 1200 HRS ON 1/18/12 - DUE TO
INCOMING STORM - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE
SR 4
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA]
WILL BE CLOSED FROM 0.5 MI EAST OF THE JCT OF SR 207 /MT REBA TURNOFF/ TO
THE JCT OF SR 89 /EBBETTS PASS/ (ALPINE CO) AT 1200 HRS ON 1/18/12 - DUE TO
INCOMING STORM - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE
SR 108
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
WILL BE CLOSED FROM 7.2 MI EAST OF STRAWBERRY TO 5.3 MI WEST OF THE
JCT OF US 395 /SONORA PASS/ (TUOLUMNE,MONO CO) AT 1200 HRS ON 1/18/12 - DUE TO
INCOMING STORM - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE
There are 1st 1 storm "fronts" stay from KERN north and the third seems to make it all the way to LA ...
Mammoth private forecaster is saying 2-5 inches moisture equates to 2-5 feet snow.
GOVT are giving a wait and see on the amounts but issuing winter storm advisories.
Los Angeles expecting 1-2 inches 60% chance
Susanville start 18 JAN WED 2-4 iches a day with heavy AT weekend ... 100% chance BETWEEN 20-22 JAN
Levels to 5000 feet then up to 8000 feet then back to 5000 feet.
Truckee start 18 JAN WED 2-4 iches getting heavy levels to 6500 feet.
100% chance BETWEEN 20-22 JAN
Gusts to 100 MPH
Mammoth Lakes 90% chance BETWEEN 20-22 JAN 2-5 feet expected from town to lodge.
OREGON WILL GET HAMMERED.
Downtown Seattle expects 6-12 inches.
For Tahoe area ... The Europen model shows about 2-4 feet while the GFS shows 4-6 feet possible on the mountain.
Rubies ... 1-2 feet initially ... then?
Mammoth private forecaster is saying 2-5 inches moisture equates to 2-5 feet snow.
GOVT are giving a wait and see on the amounts but issuing winter storm advisories.
Los Angeles expecting 1-2 inches 60% chance
Susanville start 18 JAN WED 2-4 iches a day with heavy AT weekend ... 100% chance BETWEEN 20-22 JAN
Levels to 5000 feet then up to 8000 feet then back to 5000 feet.
Truckee start 18 JAN WED 2-4 iches getting heavy levels to 6500 feet.
100% chance BETWEEN 20-22 JAN
Gusts to 100 MPH
Mammoth Lakes 90% chance BETWEEN 20-22 JAN 2-5 feet expected from town to lodge.
OREGON WILL GET HAMMERED.
Downtown Seattle expects 6-12 inches.
For Tahoe area ... The Europen model shows about 2-4 feet while the GFS shows 4-6 feet possible on the mountain.
Rubies ... 1-2 feet initially ... then?
Last edited:
Why so confident ?
The moisture extends from Washington to Hawaii.
It has to go somewhere and there are no lows to dump it into the ocean ... like it has the last several months.
In fact it is moving with a weak high pressure system holding the moisture.
http://http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/EP1/IR/&NUMBLOOP=10
The moisture extends from Washington to Hawaii.
It has to go somewhere and there are no lows to dump it into the ocean ... like it has the last several months.
In fact it is moving with a weak high pressure system holding the moisture.
http://http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/EP1/IR/&NUMBLOOP=10
Last edited:
I agree the moisture has no where to go but over Cali. It's about time.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
115 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...WINTER WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...
.A SERIES OF AT LEAST THREE WINTER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA...BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST STORM WILL IMPACT YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE SECOND AND THIRD STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AS FAR SOUTH AS SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
CAZ096-180530-
/O.NEW.KHNX.WW.Y.0001.120119T2000Z-120121T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KHNX.WS.A.0001.120121T0200Z-120123T0200Z/
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
115 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM
PST FRIDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000 FEET...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM PST FRIDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. A WINTER STORM
WATCH ABOVE 5000 FEET HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM
WATCH ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IS IN
EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: THE FIRST STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES TO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. THE
SECOND AND THIRD STORMS COULD BRING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO
18 INCHES.
* ELEVATION: THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.
* TIMING: THE FIRST STORM WILL REACH YOSEMITE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE THIRD STORM ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: INITIALLY...TUOLUMNE MEADOWS AND TIOGA PASS.
THE SECOND AND THIRD STORMS ALSO WILL IMPACT SHAVER LAKE AND
HUNTINGTON LAKE.
* WINDS: WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS: TIOGA PASS MAY BE AFFECTED BY SNOW AND WINDS BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY. TRAVEL INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW AS WELL AS STRONG
WINDS. PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECASTS AND HEED PARK...FOREST AND
PUBLIC SAFETY OFFICIALS. CARRY CHAINS AND BE PREPARED FOR DELAYS
AND ROAD CLOSURES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
346 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...SERIES OF WINTER STORMS TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...
.A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL WINTER
STORMS THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND BRING LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SUCCESSIVELY WETTER AND WARMER STORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAZ068-069-181400-
/O.NEW.KSTO.WW.Y.0001.120119T1800Z-120120T0600Z/
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
346 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
THURSDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ABOVE
7000 FT.
* ELEVATION: ABOVE 6000 FEET.
* TIMING: SNOW MAY BEGIN IN LASSEN PARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LASSEN PARK...INTERSTATE 80...HIGHWAYS 50...
4...88...AND 108.
* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH POSSIBLE OVER EXPOSED RIDGETOPS.
* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES. DANGEROUS BACK COUNTRY TRAVELING
CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
=============================== End of Transmistion
http://www.squaw.com/squaw-valley-weather-blog
Let the season begin
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
115 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...WINTER WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...
.A SERIES OF AT LEAST THREE WINTER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA...BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST STORM WILL IMPACT YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE SECOND AND THIRD STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AS FAR SOUTH AS SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
CAZ096-180530-
/O.NEW.KHNX.WW.Y.0001.120119T2000Z-120121T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KHNX.WS.A.0001.120121T0200Z-120123T0200Z/
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
115 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM
PST FRIDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000 FEET...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM PST FRIDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. A WINTER STORM
WATCH ABOVE 5000 FEET HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM
WATCH ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IS IN
EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: THE FIRST STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES TO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. THE
SECOND AND THIRD STORMS COULD BRING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO
18 INCHES.
* ELEVATION: THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.
* TIMING: THE FIRST STORM WILL REACH YOSEMITE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE THIRD STORM ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: INITIALLY...TUOLUMNE MEADOWS AND TIOGA PASS.
THE SECOND AND THIRD STORMS ALSO WILL IMPACT SHAVER LAKE AND
HUNTINGTON LAKE.
* WINDS: WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS: TIOGA PASS MAY BE AFFECTED BY SNOW AND WINDS BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY. TRAVEL INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW AS WELL AS STRONG
WINDS. PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECASTS AND HEED PARK...FOREST AND
PUBLIC SAFETY OFFICIALS. CARRY CHAINS AND BE PREPARED FOR DELAYS
AND ROAD CLOSURES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
346 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...SERIES OF WINTER STORMS TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...
.A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL WINTER
STORMS THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND BRING LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SUCCESSIVELY WETTER AND WARMER STORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAZ068-069-181400-
/O.NEW.KSTO.WW.Y.0001.120119T1800Z-120120T0600Z/
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
346 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
THURSDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ABOVE
7000 FT.
* ELEVATION: ABOVE 6000 FEET.
* TIMING: SNOW MAY BEGIN IN LASSEN PARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LASSEN PARK...INTERSTATE 80...HIGHWAYS 50...
4...88...AND 108.
* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH POSSIBLE OVER EXPOSED RIDGETOPS.
* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES. DANGEROUS BACK COUNTRY TRAVELING
CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
=============================== End of Transmistion
http://www.squaw.com/squaw-valley-weather-blog
Let the season begin
Last edited:
I agree the moisture has no where to go but over Cali. It's about time.
View attachment 163565
View attachment 163566
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
115 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...WINTER WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...
.A SERIES OF AT LEAST THREE WINTER STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA...BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST STORM WILL IMPACT YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE SECOND AND THIRD STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AS FAR SOUTH AS SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
CAZ096-180530-
/O.NEW.KHNX.WW.Y.0001.120119T2000Z-120121T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KHNX.WS.A.0001.120121T0200Z-120123T0200Z/
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
115 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM
PST FRIDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 5000 FEET...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM PST FRIDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. A WINTER STORM
WATCH ABOVE 5000 FEET HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM
WATCH ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IS IN
EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: THE FIRST STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES TO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. THE
SECOND AND THIRD STORMS COULD BRING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO
18 INCHES.
* ELEVATION: THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 8000 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT WILL LOWER TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.
* TIMING: THE FIRST STORM WILL REACH YOSEMITE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE SECOND STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE THIRD STORM ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: INITIALLY...TUOLUMNE MEADOWS AND TIOGA PASS.
THE SECOND AND THIRD STORMS ALSO WILL IMPACT SHAVER LAKE AND
HUNTINGTON LAKE.
* WINDS: WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS: TIOGA PASS MAY BE AFFECTED BY SNOW AND WINDS BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY. TRAVEL INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE
AFFECTED BY ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW AS WELL AS STRONG
WINDS. PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECASTS AND HEED PARK...FOREST AND
PUBLIC SAFETY OFFICIALS. CARRY CHAINS AND BE PREPARED FOR DELAYS
AND ROAD CLOSURES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
346 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...SERIES OF WINTER STORMS TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...
.A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL WINTER
STORMS THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND BRING LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SUCCESSIVELY WETTER AND WARMER STORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
CAZ068-069-181400-
/O.NEW.KSTO.WW.Y.0001.120119T1800Z-120120T0600Z/
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
346 PM PST TUE JAN 17 2012
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
THURSDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 8 INCHES. HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ABOVE
7000 FT.
* ELEVATION: ABOVE 6000 FEET.
* TIMING: SNOW MAY BEGIN IN LASSEN PARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LASSEN PARK...INTERSTATE 80...HIGHWAYS 50...
4...88...AND 108.
* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH POSSIBLE OVER EXPOSED RIDGETOPS.
* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES. DANGEROUS BACK COUNTRY TRAVELING
CONDITIONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
=============================== End of Transmistion
http://www.squaw.com/squaw-valley-weather-blog
Let the season begin
NICE REPORTING!!!
Looks like NOAA just caught on to the colder temps on the crest of the sierra near Truckee, switching from a winter weather advisory to a winter storm warning for tomorrow through Friday am, then a winter storm watch for Friday afternoon through Saturday. In fact a pin point forecast for Castle Peak is calling for 27-48 through Friday night. Bring it ULLR!
Now that's a forecast you can sink your teeth into
Well might snow Monday thru Tuesday BUT suppose to be light. From Susanville to Mammoth. Chances SUN 70% MON 50% TUES 30% WED 10%
Temp high for MON - Tues day at 7000 feet 35-38
WED 25 JAN will be above freezing for 24 plus hours with with highs in the mid 40's & no storms forecasted AFTER WED 25 JAN.
They aren't talking about more snow amounts except it will be more than 2 feet at 7000 feet and 5 feet at 10000 feet with a chance of rain between FRI-SUN storms but might end up snowing at 7000 feet (between storms) causing more than 2 feet at 7000 feet.
WINDS over the crest between storms will be over 100 MPH
REMEMBER the forecasting has been very poor this year so they are discounting the forecasted significance of the storm because most forecasts this season have been lackluster.
I think by SATURDAY ... after the WED-FRI storm we will get an idea
Last edited:
Okay now saying the 2 storms done by MONDAY sunrise.
1feet at 7000 feet minimum 2 feet at 10000 feet minimum but may go as high as 5 feet if snow level dip below 5000 feet. Dusting ar 5000 feet. COLD will slow the storm.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
626 PM PST THU JAN 19 2012
SHOWERS
ARE BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER INTO THE SIERRA FRONT. WE AREN`T
EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL FOR 19 JAN TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOULD HELP OUT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 45-55 MPH AROUND THE WASHOE
DRIVE FIRE OVERNIGHT, LESS THAN THE 70+ MPH WINDS WE WERE SEEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS ONLY SET TO GO
UNTIL 10 PM, DUE TO THE INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LESSENING FIRE
DANGER, BUT SINCE WITH THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND
45-55 MPH OVERNIGHT, THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 4 AM
FRIDAY MORNING. HOON
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM PST THU JAN 19 2012/
SHORT TERM...
WINDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTS OF 60
MPH OR MORE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WASHOE DRIVE FIRE AND
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT THROUGH 7PM. SIERRA RIDGE
GUSTS OF 80-100 MPH WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING 19 JAN.
FIRST SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SIERRA IS PROVIDING THE ENERGY FOR
THE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DECLINE LATER THIS EVENING
BUT REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AND
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE EXTENDED THE RED FLAGS
AND WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
PLUMAS...LASSEN COUNTIES DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH AND VERY
DRY AIR IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT THE SNOW
ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG HIGHWAY 89 AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA
CREST PEAK AMOUNTS TO APPROACH 10 INCHES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST for 19 JAN.
DUE TO STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE MUCH
LESS...PERHAPS LESS THAN 4 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CARSON RANGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AN END TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS SET UP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE
SIERRA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY SNOW IN THE UPPER
ELEVATIONS STARTING BY FRIDAY EVENING 20JAN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
COUPLING THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE BEST LIFT FROM THE JET PASSING
THROUGH RENO-TAHOE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY RISE TO 7000 TO 8500 FEET FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HELP BOOST MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FOR HIGH ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
VALLEY RAIN. LIQUID AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES (snow water equivalent) ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY SHORT EVENT DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEAR 0.50 ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMOUNTS UP TO
1 INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA COULD PRODUCE MINOR RUN OFF ISSUES IN URBAN AREAS.
SNOW TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST ABOVE
8000 FEET...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE CREST DOWN TO 7000 FEET. IN
THE TAHOE BASIN 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT END AMOUNTS WILL
BE DETERMINED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW LEVELS DROP FRIDAY NIGHT.
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW (RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE) MAY
HELP DRAG SNOW LEVELS LOWER IN THE SIERRA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD INCREASE SNOW TOTALS. HOWEVER IF THE SNOW
LEVELS HANG UP AT 7000-8000 FEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING 21 JAN SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5000 FEET...AND MAY BRING A AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION TO
THE WESTERN NEVADA FOOTHILLS. BY SATURDAY THE COLD POOL FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEVADA...INCREASE THE INSTABILITY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. BRONG
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WINTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
COLD POOL BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE FINAL SYSTEM IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING WITH THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE AS INITIAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FINAL SYSTEM AS IT SHOWS A WETTER
SOLUTION WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS. THE ECMWF ISN`T AS WET AND SHOWS A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL JET, WHILE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN BETWEEN.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED NOW THAT THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
HAS LINED UP, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PEAK PRECIPITATION LOOKING TO FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING . EXPECT ABOUT A
FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING 23 JAN SUNRISE WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW/RAIN IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS ALONG THE FRONT. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET DURING THIS EVENT.
1feet at 7000 feet minimum 2 feet at 10000 feet minimum but may go as high as 5 feet if snow level dip below 5000 feet. Dusting ar 5000 feet. COLD will slow the storm.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
626 PM PST THU JAN 19 2012
SHOWERS
ARE BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER INTO THE SIERRA FRONT. WE AREN`T
EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL FOR 19 JAN TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH EVEN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS SHOULD HELP OUT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 45-55 MPH AROUND THE WASHOE
DRIVE FIRE OVERNIGHT, LESS THAN THE 70+ MPH WINDS WE WERE SEEING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS ONLY SET TO GO
UNTIL 10 PM, DUE TO THE INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LESSENING FIRE
DANGER, BUT SINCE WITH THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND
45-55 MPH OVERNIGHT, THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 4 AM
FRIDAY MORNING. HOON
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM PST THU JAN 19 2012/
SHORT TERM...
WINDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING AS GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTS OF 60
MPH OR MORE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WASHOE DRIVE FIRE AND
WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT THROUGH 7PM. SIERRA RIDGE
GUSTS OF 80-100 MPH WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING 19 JAN.
FIRST SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SIERRA IS PROVIDING THE ENERGY FOR
THE GUSTY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DECLINE LATER THIS EVENING
BUT REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AND
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE EXTENDED THE RED FLAGS
AND WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
PLUMAS...LASSEN COUNTIES DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH AND VERY
DRY AIR IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT THE SNOW
ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG HIGHWAY 89 AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA
CREST PEAK AMOUNTS TO APPROACH 10 INCHES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST for 19 JAN.
DUE TO STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE MUCH
LESS...PERHAPS LESS THAN 4 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CARSON RANGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AN END TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS SET UP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE
SIERRA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY SNOW IN THE UPPER
ELEVATIONS STARTING BY FRIDAY EVENING 20JAN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
COUPLING THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE BEST LIFT FROM THE JET PASSING
THROUGH RENO-TAHOE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY RISE TO 7000 TO 8500 FEET FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HELP BOOST MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY ALONG THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FOR HIGH ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
VALLEY RAIN. LIQUID AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES (snow water equivalent) ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY SHORT EVENT DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEAR 0.50 ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMOUNTS UP TO
1 INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA COULD PRODUCE MINOR RUN OFF ISSUES IN URBAN AREAS.
SNOW TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST ABOVE
8000 FEET...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE CREST DOWN TO 7000 FEET. IN
THE TAHOE BASIN 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT END AMOUNTS WILL
BE DETERMINED BY HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW LEVELS DROP FRIDAY NIGHT.
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW (RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE) MAY
HELP DRAG SNOW LEVELS LOWER IN THE SIERRA PRIOR TO THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD INCREASE SNOW TOTALS. HOWEVER IF THE SNOW
LEVELS HANG UP AT 7000-8000 FEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH LESS.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY MORNING 21 JAN SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP
BELOW 5000 FEET...AND MAY BRING A AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION TO
THE WESTERN NEVADA FOOTHILLS. BY SATURDAY THE COLD POOL FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEVADA...INCREASE THE INSTABILITY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. BRONG
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WINTER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
COLD POOL BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE FINAL SYSTEM IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST SUNDAY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING WITH THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE AS INITIAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FINAL SYSTEM AS IT SHOWS A WETTER
SOLUTION WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS. THE ECMWF ISN`T AS WET AND SHOWS A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL JET, WHILE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN BETWEEN.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED NOW THAT THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
HAS LINED UP, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
PEAK PRECIPITATION LOOKING TO FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING . EXPECT ABOUT A
FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING 23 JAN SUNRISE WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW/RAIN IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS ALONG THE FRONT. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET DURING THIS EVENT.
Last edited:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
335 PM PST FRI JAN 20 2012.
SHORT TERM...
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OFF THE PACIFIC IS MOVING INTO THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH INCREASING SNOW LEVELS. PROFILER DATA IN
CALIFORNIA HAVE REPORTED SNOW LEVELS NEAR 9000 FEET...WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS IN THE SIERRA SHOWING SNOW LEVELS AS HIGH AS 9500
FEET. A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL PASS THROUGH THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS AND PRODUCING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY TO
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR
AND RAINFALL RATES OF 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SNOW LEVELS TO
9000-9500 FEET THIS EVENING. THIS MEANS LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN THE
SIERRA BELOW 7000 FEET...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY BELOW
7000 FEET UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY MAY CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FLUCTUATE AS MUCH
AS 500-1000 FEET TONIGHT...BY DRAGGING COLD AIR DOWN TOWARD THE
SURFACE.SNOW TOTALS WILL REMAIN IMPRESSIVE ABOVE 8000 FEET IN THE SIERRA
WITH 2-3 FEET OF HEAVY WET SNOW. HOWEVER BELOW 8000 FEET TOTALS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT DROP BELOW 7000 FEET IN
THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE AREA UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY...THUS SNOW MAY NOT
STICK UNTIL THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 6 INCHES AT LAKE
LEVEL...THOUGH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
SHORE.FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND BURN AREAS IN WASHOE COUNTY...NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL IMPACTING THE AREA
FROM 8PM-2AM. TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR RENO-CARSON WILL BE AT 0.50 TO
0.75 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE
FOOTHILLS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. THOSE DRIVING BETWEEN
RENO AND CARSON CITY ON GEIGER GRADE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WET ROADS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN AND SNOW AS THE BIGGER IMPACT HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR RENO-CARSON.
BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REDEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND/OR LAKE WINDS
ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA. BRONG
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS IN CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WINTER SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN
THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE STORM, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON TEMPS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE FINAL SYSTEM
IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS APPROACHES THE WEST COAST SUNDAY EVENING.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF SUNDAY NIGHT`S
SHORTWAVE WITH INITIAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
ECMWF AND HALF OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM
IN A FULL 12 HOURS LATER, WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION FALLING MONDAY
MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
THEREFORE KEEPING THE FORECAST TIMING CONSISTENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE COME CLOSER
TO THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWESTERN NV. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION LOOKING TO BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN WESTERN NV BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 6000 FEET SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN FALL TO LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY FLOORS BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN
ABOVE 6000 FEET IN FAR EASTERN CA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA
FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NV ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS H700 WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS.
THIS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN SIERRA RIDGE WINDS UP TO 80 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN
THE TAHOE BASIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NV VALLEYS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM TUESDAY ON, WHICH DOES NOT
PUSH THE JET AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THERE FOR, HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PORTOLA
TO GERLACH AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY MORNING.
LABELLE
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT KRNO OVERNIGHT WITH -SHRA CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP TO 2KFT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DROPPING LOWER AS HEAVIER RA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 06-10Z. -RA SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SAT
MORNING.
FOR KTRK AND KTVL, IFR CONDITIONS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS IN
-RA/SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. EXPECT RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO BEGIN AFTER 12Z WITH 3-6 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
FOR KMMH, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH RASN DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z.
THIS WILL LOWER CIGS/VIS TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3-6
INCHES POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z.
335 PM PST FRI JAN 20 2012.
SHORT TERM...
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OFF THE PACIFIC IS MOVING INTO THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH INCREASING SNOW LEVELS. PROFILER DATA IN
CALIFORNIA HAVE REPORTED SNOW LEVELS NEAR 9000 FEET...WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS IN THE SIERRA SHOWING SNOW LEVELS AS HIGH AS 9500
FEET. A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER JET WILL PASS THROUGH THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS AND PRODUCING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY TO
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR
AND RAINFALL RATES OF 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SNOW LEVELS TO
9000-9500 FEET THIS EVENING. THIS MEANS LOWER SNOW TOTALS IN THE
SIERRA BELOW 7000 FEET...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY BELOW
7000 FEET UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY MAY CAUSE SNOW LEVELS TO FLUCTUATE AS MUCH
AS 500-1000 FEET TONIGHT...BY DRAGGING COLD AIR DOWN TOWARD THE
SURFACE.SNOW TOTALS WILL REMAIN IMPRESSIVE ABOVE 8000 FEET IN THE SIERRA
WITH 2-3 FEET OF HEAVY WET SNOW. HOWEVER BELOW 8000 FEET TOTALS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SNOW LEVELS WILL NOT DROP BELOW 7000 FEET IN
THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE AREA UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY...THUS SNOW MAY NOT
STICK UNTIL THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 6 INCHES AT LAKE
LEVEL...THOUGH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
SHORE.FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND BURN AREAS IN WASHOE COUNTY...NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL IMPACTING THE AREA
FROM 8PM-2AM. TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR RENO-CARSON WILL BE AT 0.50 TO
0.75 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE
FOOTHILLS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. THOSE DRIVING BETWEEN
RENO AND CARSON CITY ON GEIGER GRADE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WET ROADS AND LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN WIND PRONE AREAS. HOWEVER WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN AND SNOW AS THE BIGGER IMPACT HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR RENO-CARSON.
BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REDEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND/OR LAKE WINDS
ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA. BRONG
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS IN CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WINTER SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN
THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE STORM, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON TEMPS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE FINAL SYSTEM
IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS APPROACHES THE WEST COAST SUNDAY EVENING.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF SUNDAY NIGHT`S
SHORTWAVE WITH INITIAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AND PEAKING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
ECMWF AND HALF OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM
IN A FULL 12 HOURS LATER, WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION FALLING MONDAY
MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
THEREFORE KEEPING THE FORECAST TIMING CONSISTENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THE ECMWF AND NAM HAVE COME CLOSER
TO THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWESTERN NV. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION LOOKING TO BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN WESTERN NV BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO AROUND 6000 FEET SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN FALL TO LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY FLOORS BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN
ABOVE 6000 FEET IN FAR EASTERN CA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA
FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NV ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS H700 WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS.
THIS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN SIERRA RIDGE WINDS UP TO 80 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN
THE TAHOE BASIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NV VALLEYS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM TUESDAY ON, WHICH DOES NOT
PUSH THE JET AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THERE FOR, HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PORTOLA
TO GERLACH AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV FRIDAY MORNING.
LABELLE
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT KRNO OVERNIGHT WITH -SHRA CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP TO 2KFT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DROPPING LOWER AS HEAVIER RA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 06-10Z. -RA SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SAT
MORNING.
FOR KTRK AND KTVL, IFR CONDITIONS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS IN
-RA/SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. EXPECT RUNWAY SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO BEGIN AFTER 12Z WITH 3-6 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
FOR KMMH, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH RASN DEVELOPING OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z.
THIS WILL LOWER CIGS/VIS TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3-6
INCHES POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
845 PM PST FRI JAN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
FINALLY, MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND IN PARTS
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SNOWS ARE FALLING ON
THE SIERRA CREST. THIS PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS SATURDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
&&
...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RAISED SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT IN THE SJ VLY...
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERT...
.DISCUSSION...TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND BRING BENEFICIAL PRECIP TO
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT STORM IS CENTERED OFF THE PAC NW COAST.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE
ONSHORE FROM NORTHERN CA NORTHWARD. UNTIL THAT FRONT GETS HERE...MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS STORM
TONIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8K FEET.MEANWHILE...A POWERFUL 160+ KT JET WILL BE DRIVING THIS STORM INLAND.
AS THE 300 MB JET PUNCHES INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING...IT WILL GENERATE VERY HEAVY PRECIP ALONG THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME QUITE STRONG ALONG THE SIERRA CREST DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
GUSTING OVER 80 MPH ON THE EXPOSED RIDGES. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE RAIN SHADOWING ALONG THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH END
OF THE SJ VLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE EAST SIDE AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS END UP WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOAKING. ADDITIONALLY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE SJ VLY WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
STORM SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. A SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT LIKELY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERNEV UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. BY THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS STORM WILL BE OVER AND RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CWA FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS FORECAST THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THIS LATE WEEKEND
STORM WILL BE A BIT COLDER...IT WILL ALSO BE PACKING FAR LESS MOISTURE.NONETHELESS...THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WILL CERTAINLY
BE WELCOME.
WHILE THE NEXT TWO STORMS PUT A DENT IN THE LARGE PRECIP DEFICIT ACROSS
CENTRAL CA...IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY ENOUGH TO BRING US EVEN CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT ONCE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MANY DAYS AFTERWARD...
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. AND AFTER
REPLENISHMENT OF WATER IN THE SOIL OF THE SJ VLY DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
FORMATION RATHER PROLIFIC UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING
TUESDAY.
845 PM PST FRI JAN 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
FINALLY, MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND IN PARTS
OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND MORE IMPORTANTLY SNOWS ARE FALLING ON
THE SIERRA CREST. THIS PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS SATURDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
&&
...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RAISED SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT IN THE SJ VLY...
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND KERN COUNTY DESERT...
.DISCUSSION...TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND BRING BENEFICIAL PRECIP TO
MUCH OF THE CWA. THE CURRENT STORM IS CENTERED OFF THE PAC NW COAST.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE
ONSHORE FROM NORTHERN CA NORTHWARD. UNTIL THAT FRONT GETS HERE...MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS STORM
TONIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8K FEET.MEANWHILE...A POWERFUL 160+ KT JET WILL BE DRIVING THIS STORM INLAND.
AS THE 300 MB JET PUNCHES INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING...IT WILL GENERATE VERY HEAVY PRECIP ALONG THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME QUITE STRONG ALONG THE SIERRA CREST DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
GUSTING OVER 80 MPH ON THE EXPOSED RIDGES. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE RAIN SHADOWING ALONG THE WEST SIDE AND SOUTH END
OF THE SJ VLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE EAST SIDE AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS END UP WITH A PRETTY GOOD SOAKING. ADDITIONALLY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE SJ VLY WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
STORM SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. A SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT LIKELY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERNEV UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. BY THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS STORM WILL BE OVER AND RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CWA FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS FORECAST THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THIS LATE WEEKEND
STORM WILL BE A BIT COLDER...IT WILL ALSO BE PACKING FAR LESS MOISTURE.NONETHELESS...THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS SYSTEM BRINGS WILL CERTAINLY
BE WELCOME.
WHILE THE NEXT TWO STORMS PUT A DENT IN THE LARGE PRECIP DEFICIT ACROSS
CENTRAL CA...IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY ENOUGH TO BRING US EVEN CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT ONCE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MANY DAYS AFTERWARD...
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS. AND AFTER
REPLENISHMENT OF WATER IN THE SOIL OF THE SJ VLY DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG
FORMATION RATHER PROLIFIC UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING
TUESDAY.
expect 2-4 feet from Mammoth thru Truckee above 8500 feet happening now.
For second storm SUN-MON ... hit and miss for snow meaning if it does snow in an area it will be much more than todays SAT 21 JAN storm.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
344 AM PST SAT JAN 21 2012.SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVELY WET WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO POUND THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO COME
DOWN IN THE SIERRA, WITH SLIDE MOUNTAIN DOWN TO 26 DEGREES AND SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 6500 FEET. THE WELL-ADVERTISED DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
HASN`T FAILED TO IMPRESS. RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS, WITH RATES OF UP TO 0.4" PER HOUR AT TIMES IN THE
SIERRA. THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH RAINFALL THAT LAKE TAHOE HAS RISEN BY
MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WE HAVEN`T HAD ANY ISSUES
WITH RIVERS OR STREAMS, BUT ALL HAVE SEEN RISES OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TAPERING OFF AROUND THE RENO AREA,
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM 1.5"
ON THE NEVADA SIDE AND AROUND 3.5" ON THE CALIFORNIA SIDE. AS FOR
RAINFALL IN WESTERN NEVADA, RENO AND CARSON CITY HAVE GOTTEN ABOUT
0.6" SO FAR, WITH ABOUT 1.5" OF RAINFALL IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 395. HAVEN`T GOTTEN MANY REPORTS OF SNOW AMOUNTS YET, SINCE
SNOW LEVELS HAVE SPENT MOVE OF THE NIGHT ABOVE 8500 FEET. WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED THAT SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AROUND LAKE TAHOE
ABOVE 8500 FEET GOT 2-4 FEET OF HEAVY WET SNOW.AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS MORNING, SNOW LEVELS WILL COME DOWN
TO NEAR VALLEY FLOORS BY MIDDAY. WE DO EXPECT TO SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE SIERRA, ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION
RATES WON`T BE AS MUCH AS WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT. I DID BUMP UP SNOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, WITH SNOW LIKELY NOT
ACCUMULATING DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL UNTIL AFTER 7 AM. LATEST NAM STILL
SHOWS A BURST OF PRECIP IN THE SIERRA BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM, WHEN
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY BE DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL. WE COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES ABOVE 7000FT THROUGH, WITH 2-4 INCHES TO LAKE
TAHOE LEVEL. IF THIS DOESN`T MATERIALIZE, THEN WE WON`T SEE MUCH AT
ALL FOR ACCUMULATIONS AT THE LAKE. AS FOR MONO COUNTY, THEY`VE SEEN
ABOUT 10 INCHES SO FAR ALONG THE CREST, BUT WILL SEE EVEN MORE AT
THE MAIN PRECIP BAND SAGS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED, THIS MEANS THAT THE RENO-CARSON
CITY AREAS WON`T BE SEEING MUCH SNOW AT THE VALLEY FLOORS. STILL
EXPECTING AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE FOOTHILLS ABOVE 5500 FEET,INCLUDING VIRGINIA CITY, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
LOWERING TO VALLEY FLOORS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE DONE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH IN WESTERN NEVADA. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE AS WELL AS MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES, WHERE THE GRADIENTS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. PRECIPITATION
WILL REALLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TEMPORARILY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD,
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ALL TOGETHER. HOON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF HAS COME A BIT MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND GEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE SLOWED JUSTA BIT. ECMWF REMAINS THE DRIER OF THESE THREE WHILE THE NAM IS
SHOWING ITS TYPICAL DRY BIAS EAST OF THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS AND
TIMING OF THE PCPN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BUMP UP MID LVL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
SYSTEM. THIS WARMING MAY BE SLIGHTLY OFF SET BY INCREASED PCPN
INTENSITY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A COLDER SYSTEM
OVERALL THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BUT IT IS ALSO DRIER.
THIS WILL REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT WHERE SNOW DOES FALL RATIOS WILL
BE HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM. AS GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY
FAVOR THE TIMING OF THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO DELAY THE HIGHEST
POPS JUST A BIT UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. ALSO TRIED TO SHOW A RISE IN
SNOW LEVELS A BIT MORE OVER CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN BRING THE SNOW LEVELS BACK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
IT IS LIKELY THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF LASSEN AND SIERRA COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE TAHOE AREA AND INTO
MONO COUNTY FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW END WARNING IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TAHOE
BASIN.WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY EARLY SUNDAY...
BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUB ADVISORY EAST OF THE SIERRA. LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SUNDAY. THEN WITH ONSET OF PCPN WINDS
WILL DECREASE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST SPILL
OVER CHANCES FOR WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SHOWERS. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE OVER THE FAR NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE
TUESDAY BUT IS BEING HELD OFF BY A FLAT RIDGE. WILL INCLUDE SOME
VERY LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NRN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BIT OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION PCPN. MLF
ON WEDNESDAY THE FLAT RIDGE OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
PUSHES THE MAIN JET NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEEK JET DYNAMICS KEEP THE CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. BUMPED UP POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE JET. ZTT/MLF
&&
For second storm SUN-MON ... hit and miss for snow meaning if it does snow in an area it will be much more than todays SAT 21 JAN storm.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
344 AM PST SAT JAN 21 2012.SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVELY WET WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO POUND THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO COME
DOWN IN THE SIERRA, WITH SLIDE MOUNTAIN DOWN TO 26 DEGREES AND SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 6500 FEET. THE WELL-ADVERTISED DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
HASN`T FAILED TO IMPRESS. RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS, WITH RATES OF UP TO 0.4" PER HOUR AT TIMES IN THE
SIERRA. THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH RAINFALL THAT LAKE TAHOE HAS RISEN BY
MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. WE HAVEN`T HAD ANY ISSUES
WITH RIVERS OR STREAMS, BUT ALL HAVE SEEN RISES OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TAPERING OFF AROUND THE RENO AREA,
WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM 1.5"
ON THE NEVADA SIDE AND AROUND 3.5" ON THE CALIFORNIA SIDE. AS FOR
RAINFALL IN WESTERN NEVADA, RENO AND CARSON CITY HAVE GOTTEN ABOUT
0.6" SO FAR, WITH ABOUT 1.5" OF RAINFALL IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 395. HAVEN`T GOTTEN MANY REPORTS OF SNOW AMOUNTS YET, SINCE
SNOW LEVELS HAVE SPENT MOVE OF THE NIGHT ABOVE 8500 FEET. WOULDN`T
BE SURPRISED THAT SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AROUND LAKE TAHOE
ABOVE 8500 FEET GOT 2-4 FEET OF HEAVY WET SNOW.AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN THIS MORNING, SNOW LEVELS WILL COME DOWN
TO NEAR VALLEY FLOORS BY MIDDAY. WE DO EXPECT TO SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE SIERRA, ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITATION
RATES WON`T BE AS MUCH AS WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT. I DID BUMP UP SNOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, WITH SNOW LIKELY NOT
ACCUMULATING DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL UNTIL AFTER 7 AM. LATEST NAM STILL
SHOWS A BURST OF PRECIP IN THE SIERRA BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM, WHEN
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FINALLY BE DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL. WE COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES ABOVE 7000FT THROUGH, WITH 2-4 INCHES TO LAKE
TAHOE LEVEL. IF THIS DOESN`T MATERIALIZE, THEN WE WON`T SEE MUCH AT
ALL FOR ACCUMULATIONS AT THE LAKE. AS FOR MONO COUNTY, THEY`VE SEEN
ABOUT 10 INCHES SO FAR ALONG THE CREST, BUT WILL SEE EVEN MORE AT
THE MAIN PRECIP BAND SAGS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED, THIS MEANS THAT THE RENO-CARSON
CITY AREAS WON`T BE SEEING MUCH SNOW AT THE VALLEY FLOORS. STILL
EXPECTING AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE FOOTHILLS ABOVE 5500 FEET,INCLUDING VIRGINIA CITY, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
LOWERING TO VALLEY FLOORS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE DONE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH IN WESTERN NEVADA. WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE AS WELL AS MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES, WHERE THE GRADIENTS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. PRECIPITATION
WILL REALLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN TEMPORARILY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD,
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ALL TOGETHER. HOON
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE ECMWF HAS COME A BIT MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND GEM...MAINLY BECAUSE THEY HAVE SLOWED JUSTA BIT. ECMWF REMAINS THE DRIER OF THESE THREE WHILE THE NAM IS
SHOWING ITS TYPICAL DRY BIAS EAST OF THE SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS AND
TIMING OF THE PCPN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BUMP UP MID LVL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
SYSTEM. THIS WARMING MAY BE SLIGHTLY OFF SET BY INCREASED PCPN
INTENSITY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A COLDER SYSTEM
OVERALL THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH BUT IT IS ALSO DRIER.
THIS WILL REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT WHERE SNOW DOES FALL RATIOS WILL
BE HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM. AS GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY
FAVOR THE TIMING OF THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO DELAY THE HIGHEST
POPS JUST A BIT UNTIL LATER SUNDAY. ALSO TRIED TO SHOW A RISE IN
SNOW LEVELS A BIT MORE OVER CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN BRING THE SNOW LEVELS BACK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
IT IS LIKELY THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF LASSEN AND SIERRA COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE TAHOE AREA AND INTO
MONO COUNTY FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW END WARNING IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TAHOE
BASIN.WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY EARLY SUNDAY...
BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUB ADVISORY EAST OF THE SIERRA. LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SUNDAY. THEN WITH ONSET OF PCPN WINDS
WILL DECREASE A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST SPILL
OVER CHANCES FOR WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SHOWERS. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE OVER THE FAR NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE
TUESDAY BUT IS BEING HELD OFF BY A FLAT RIDGE. WILL INCLUDE SOME
VERY LOW POPS OVER THE FAR NRN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BIT OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION PCPN. MLF
ON WEDNESDAY THE FLAT RIDGE OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
PUSHES THE MAIN JET NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. A PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEEK JET DYNAMICS KEEP THE CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. BUMPED UP POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MODELS ARE SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE JET. ZTT/MLF
&&
Last edited:
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