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How High Does The Avy Danger Have To Be Before You Stay Away From Potential Slide Zon

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Take the time to look over this information.
Especially notice the percentages of fatalities associated with the danger level. Once you have read through this please post what level you are comfortable with and why you are comfortable with that level.


- Level 1, Low Danger: The snowpack is generally well bonded or loosely packed and low in stress (typical situation in mid-winter with shallow snow cover). A high additional load is required for artificial triggering, even in extreme terrain (e.g. brought about by explosions or winter sports activities). Human-triggered avalanches are unlikely, but cannot be ruled out entirely. The endangered zones are sparse, mostly limited to extreme terrain, and usually easy to localise.
Natural avalanches rarely occur, apart from small slides and small avalanches in steep terrain.
About 6 per cent of all fatalities occur at this danger level.

- Level 2, Moderate Danger: The snowpack is only moderately bonded in some places, as generally indicated in detail in the Avalanche Bulletin by reference to the altitude zone, aspect or type of terrain. Provided that routes are selected carefully, the conditions for winter sports activities are generally favourable. The possibility of an avalanche being triggered cannot be disregarded, however, especially in the presence of a large additional load (see Chapter 8.3.2). Moreover, avalanches can be released even by a small additional load on steep slopes with less favourable snowpack conditions (see Chapter 8.3.2).
For transportation routes and settlements there is hardly any danger of natural avalanches since these occur only in isolation, if at all. Safety measures are also generally unnecessary on marked and open pistes.
About 30 per cent of all fatalities occur at this danger level.

- Level 3, Considerable Danger: The snowpack is only moderately to weakly bonded in many places. Triggering is possible even with low additional loads, especially on steep slopes in the indicated aspects and altitude zones (see Chapter 8.3.2). Isolated slab avalanches can be released even from well outside the starting zone (remote triggering).
The danger of natural avalanches can vary greatly; in case of weak snowpack layering and shallow snow cover, medium-sized avalanches are to be anticipated only sporadically. If this danger level is announced after new snow or in connection with (daytime) warming, however, isolated large avalanches are likely as well, depending on the influence of the weather. Such conditions give rise to the use of explosives (especially in the case of new snow) or temporary closures (especially if temperatures are expected to rise) for exposed parts of transportation routes and, above all, the ski slopes that are subject to protection by technical measures. Backcountry touring and freeriding activities are inadvisable without experience and the ability to assess avalanche danger. Steep slopes in the indicated aspect and altitude zone are to be avoided as far as possible.
About 45 per cent of all fatalities occur at this danger level.

- Level 4, High Danger: The snowpack is weakly bonded in most places. Triggering is probable with even small additional loads, and remote triggering is often possible. Depending on the snowpack and amounts of new snow, many medium-sized natural avalanches and an increasing number of large avalanches can be expected. Sections of transportation routes and settlements in the areas affected by such avalanches are often endangered. Explosions and closures become more and more essential. The conditions outside marked and open pistes are unfavourable.
About 18 per cent of all fatalities occur at this danger level.

- Level 5, very high danger: The snowpack is generally weakly bonded and therefore largely unstable (consistent with large quantities of new snow and new snow instabilities). Extensive weak layers can also exist deep in the snowpack; these can fail if exposed to a heavy burden of overlying snow and give rise to large avalanches. Numerous large natural avalanches are to be expected, so that extensive safety measures are required (closure and evacuation etc. in some circumstances). Backcountry touring is not recommended and usually impossible in any case.
Fatalities occur at this danger level most often in winters with large avalanches, as in 1951, 1968, 1975, 1984 and 1999, and comprise about 1% of total fatalities.
 
making my first trip west this year, so I guess I'd be more prone to let the locals I'm going with make the call.

Kinda shocked the at where the most fatalities occur.
 
Would be interesting to see some statistics on the amount of people in the back country durring the different ratings. I would assume by the numbers that most people still partake in backcountry activities when the rating is moderate, therefore the higher fatalities. Once the ratings rise to High and beyond I would think the number of people in the back country would lessen, thus less chance of someone being caught in a slide.

Looks to me like everytime we unload the sled there is considerable risk of being caught in a slide of some kind. :eek:


I would still ride in the back country at a considerate level.
 
Would be interesting to see some statistics on the amount of people in the back country durring the different ratings. I would assume by the numbers that most people still partake in backcountry activities when the rating is moderate, therefore the higher fatalities. Once the ratings rise to High and beyond I would think the number of people in the back country would lessen, thus less chance of someone being caught in a slide.

Looks to me like everytime we unload the sled there is considerable risk of being caught in a slide of some kind. :eek:


I would still ride in the back country at a considerate level.[/QUOTE]

Between the record number of deaths last year, and the number so far this year, this statement does not surprise me.

Sorry to single you out firecat162, but you need to educate yourself. If you dont know what the conditions are before you head out, then you have no business riding in the backcountry. And you need to understand what those conditions mean.

Take an avy awareness class. check the avy danger before heading out. you have loved ones who want you to come home.

I'm tired of reading about avy deaths. no more excuses.
 
modsledr,

Ive been singled out my whole life, I have pretty thick skin.:) Im also experienced enough to get around in the back country. Born and raised in it. Because I state I would ride in the back country, does no way state that I would be highmarking or riding through avy run outs etc. There are alot of areas to ride even durring extreme avy danger. Areas you will never see a slide.I hope you guys practice what you preach because its usually those that know best that mess up!!

Ride Safe.:beer;
 
The level 2 and 3 Fatalities are a real eye opener! I have ridden under those 2 conditions a lot (even with IceCap) We always ride smart when it comes to wind-loaded slopes but, under level 2 seems like a free for all! It seems like, to me I'm the whiney little b!tch when it comes to sketchy riding in our group. With what is going on this season I will really be watching out!

Especially if we ever get any snow!

Great thread Ice!
 
modsledr,

Ive been singled out my whole life, I have pretty thick skin.:) Im also experienced enough to get around in the back country. Born and raised in it. Because I state I would ride in the back country, does no way state that I would be highmarking or riding through avy run outs etc. There are alot of areas to ride even durring extreme avy danger. Areas you will never see a slide.I hope you guys practice what you preach because its usually those that know best that mess up!!

Ride Safe.:beer;

Good points...my point was to know what the dangers are so you can make wise decisions while riding in the backcountry, and be able to avoid the areas that will lead to more tragedy.

ride hard and ride safe!! :beer;
 
modsledr,

Ive been singled out my whole life, I have pretty thick skin.:) Im also experienced enough to get around in the back country. Born and raised in it. Because I state I would ride in the back country, does no way state that I would be highmarking or riding through avy run outs etc. There are alot of areas to ride even durring extreme avy danger. Areas you will never see a slide.I hope you guys practice what you preach because its usually those that know best that mess up!!
Ride Safe.:beer;

Maybe your point and statement about yourself is why Modsledr is worried;)
 
Would be interesting to see some statistics on the amount of people in the back country durring the different ratings. I would assume by the numbers that most people still partake in backcountry activities when the rating is moderate, therefore the higher fatalities. Once the ratings rise to High and beyond I would think the number of people in the back country would lessen, thus less chance of someone being caught in a slide.

I'll bet you more than 50% of the people in the back country didn't check the avalanche danger the day they go out!! I'll bet bet 20% never check.
 
Its kinda hard to admit, but I was one of those guys that didn't check the avalanche danger before riding... Dumb and lucky.
Take a course, it will open your eyes!
 
you are a future statistic...i feel for your family.

Wow, that's a hell of a thing to say to a person. But since you brought it up, anybody (this definitely includes myself) that has ever been on or near a 30 to 45 degree slope has the potential to become a victim no matter what the danger scale rating is. If that is you in your avatar pic, consider yourself just another member of the "future statistic" club.
 
Take the time to look over this information.
Especially notice the percentages of fatalities associated with the danger level. Once you have read through this please post what level you are comfortable with and why you are comfortable with that level.


- Level 1, Low Danger: The snowpack is generally well bonded or loosely packed and low in stress (typical situation in mid-winter with shallow snow cover). A high additional load is required for artificial triggering, even in extreme terrain (e.g. brought about by explosions or winter sports activities). Human-triggered avalanches are unlikely, but cannot be ruled out entirely. The endangered zones are sparse, mostly limited to extreme terrain, and usually easy to localise.
Natural avalanches rarely occur, apart from small slides and small avalanches in steep terrain.
About 6 per cent of all fatalities occur at this danger level.

- Level 2, Moderate Danger: The snowpack is only moderately bonded in some places, as generally indicated in detail in the Avalanche Bulletin by reference to the altitude zone, aspect or type of terrain. Provided that routes are selected carefully, the conditions for winter sports activities are generally favourable. The possibility of an avalanche being triggered cannot be disregarded, however, especially in the presence of a large additional load (see Chapter 8.3.2). Moreover, avalanches can be released even by a small additional load on steep slopes with less favourable snowpack conditions (see Chapter 8.3.2).
For transportation routes and settlements there is hardly any danger of natural avalanches since these occur only in isolation, if at all. Safety measures are also generally unnecessary on marked and open pistes.
About 30 per cent of all fatalities occur at this danger level.

- Level 3, Considerable Danger: The snowpack is only moderately to weakly bonded in many places. Triggering is possible even with low additional loads, especially on steep slopes in the indicated aspects and altitude zones (see Chapter 8.3.2). Isolated slab avalanches can be released even from well outside the starting zone (remote triggering).
The danger of natural avalanches can vary greatly; in case of weak snowpack layering and shallow snow cover, medium-sized avalanches are to be anticipated only sporadically. If this danger level is announced after new snow or in connection with (daytime) warming, however, isolated large avalanches are likely as well, depending on the influence of the weather. Such conditions give rise to the use of explosives (especially in the case of new snow) or temporary closures (especially if temperatures are expected to rise) for exposed parts of transportation routes and, above all, the ski slopes that are subject to protection by technical measures. Backcountry touring and freeriding activities are inadvisable without experience and the ability to assess avalanche danger. Steep slopes in the indicated aspect and altitude zone are to be avoided as far as possible.
About 45 per cent of all fatalities occur at this danger level.

- Level 4, High Danger: The snowpack is weakly bonded in most places. Triggering is probable with even small additional loads, and remote triggering is often possible. Depending on the snowpack and amounts of new snow, many medium-sized natural avalanches and an increasing number of large avalanches can be expected. Sections of transportation routes and settlements in the areas affected by such avalanches are often endangered. Explosions and closures become more and more essential. The conditions outside marked and open pistes are unfavourable.
About 18 per cent of all fatalities occur at this danger level.

- Level 5, very high danger: The snowpack is generally weakly bonded and therefore largely unstable (consistent with large quantities of new snow and new snow instabilities). Extensive weak layers can also exist deep in the snowpack; these can fail if exposed to a heavy burden of overlying snow and give rise to large avalanches. Numerous large natural avalanches are to be expected, so that extensive safety measures are required (closure and evacuation etc. in some circumstances). Backcountry touring is not recommended and usually impossible in any case.
Fatalities occur at this danger level most often in winters with large avalanches, as in 1951, 1968, 1975, 1984 and 1999, and comprise about 1% of total fatalities.



LEVEL1--oh well--crap happens after all it is mother nature--but so is getting hit by a bolt of lightening.

LEVEL2--Complacency plays in here--people believe they are safe but are not--this is what many consider low--DUH it will not happen to me stage--so lets go up that cliff.

LEVEL3--Plays with level 2 discription but much more likely to create a avy by riding uneducated about rstings and actually dangers.

LEVEL4--High--either ignorant as to conditions and does not care--first place they head to--the steepest and deepest---DUHR!!

LEVEL5--Should be removed from the human gene pool---Numbers are at all time low for humans where they should not be.

1--everyone rides
2--everyone rides with a sense of false security.
3--everyone rides--in reality with the same sense of false security as number 2--really likely to create a avy--Being wreckless in where and how they are riding, Riding like conditions are 1.
4--Idiots--lower numbers of people-still headed for the steep and deep without a clue--but in MUCH smaller numbers than 2 and 3.

5--Only the dumbest of the dumbest are back there in these conditions--as stated before--need to be removed from the human gene pool--By themselves.

This is why the numbers are what they are!! More people taking more chances in a questionable conditions--I am not sure of numbers---But most ( I would bet 97%) of avys that kill someone in the backcountry--are caused by humans.

So--My answer

I am never comfortable--always watching the conditions and the change in conditions thru the day. Always plan where to ride according to the NWAC.

I have already said to much--Great Post Ice Cap.

H20SKE...
 
You can check out all the forecasts you want but....

Checking the forecasts are only a rough guideline!!

If you don't know how to examine the snow pack yourself, and see what you are up against, what you are riding NOW, HERE. you will always be playing Russian roulette.
The stability can change from a sparsely treed area to open alpine so much, you almost think you are in a different mountain range. Take the time to test. see what you are up against personally. It could be as easy as cutting a deep trench in a small hill and starting from there, to actually performing a Rutshblock test. or something in that fashion.
Check out the vid, it can give some insight.
http://www.fsavalanche.com/Default.aspx?ContentId=23&LinkId=28&ParentLinkId=3
 
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Wow, that's a hell of a thing to say to a person. But since you brought it up, anybody (this definitely includes myself) that has ever been on or near a 30 to 45 degree slope has the potential to become a victim no matter what the danger scale rating is. If that is you in your avatar pic, consider yourself just another member of the "future statistic" club.

My comment was in response to his statement of staying out of potential avy zones only when the danger level is high. 75% of avy deaths occur when the danger is moderate to considerable.

Drawing a conclusion from a thumbnail avatar pic is amusing. You know nothing of the terain, snow conditions, or the avy danger that day.

YOu are 100% correct about the slope angle danger...but my point was about being educated about the danger level and to not take the lower levels lightly.

good thread.
 
I think that all the arguing and finger pointing doesn't mean s**t.

there is only one person that can make sure we don't get burried.............


DON'T LET THE MONSTER GET YOU!!
 
I think that it would take an avalanche taking out the road/highway/ freeway TO the riding area for it to sink in to some that this is a bad day to be in this area............

And then it might not sink in that they shouldn't be up there....... it might just be stuck in their heads that they couldn't be up there......

Ubelievable year......
:mad:
 
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