Good Storm ??? MASSIVE !!!!!

[donbrown]

STORM IS EXPECTED TO DROP 4 TO 16 INCHES OF WATER WHERE IT HITS OVER 3-4 DAYS. MOST LIKELY TO HIT SUNDAY / MONDAY

Area will be at least a 100 mile vertical path somewhere on the Sierras

SNOW LEVELS 8500 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 6000 FEET AT NIGHT.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/n...ww/leads_images/satellite/EP1/IR/&NUMBLOOP=10

HERE IT IS JUST NORTH OF HAWAII

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/NHC/IR/&NUMBLOOP=1

 

[snengineer]

Wow.....

SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
530 AM PST THU DEC 16 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 7000 FEET...

A WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 7000 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET.

* SNOW LEVELS: WILL RISE AND FALL AT TIMES DURING THIS SERIES
OF STORMS...RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 6000 FEET TO 8000 FEET...
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM.
HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT AND ABOVE
7000 FEET.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY...INCREASING IN INTENSITY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: TUOLUMNE MEADOWS IN YOSEMITE PARK...
HUNTINGTON LAKE...LODGEPOLE IN SEQUOIA PARK...CAMP NELSON.

 

[donbrown]

Forecast dropping snow levels to 5000 at night ... 7500 day.

Storm will hit from Los Angeles to Susanville. Brunt of storm from Truckee / Tahoe / Mammoth Bass Lake Huntington to KINGS canyon.

The 5-10 feet is above 8000 feet ... expect more within 100 mile radius of epicenter

 

[sks rider]

Too bad the snow levels are going to be so high. Im really going to have a hard time getting to the snow if that is the case. Well just have to wait and see.

Edit: Not like id really want to ride in 5-10ft of fresh anyways. haha

 

[jpxp154]

We have some what of a base already it was 2 feet on sunday 7308. We were wearing T-shirts in december couldn't belive it, It doesnt matter all the good stuff is above 7000 feet anyways, know what mean. It does suck its warm but take what we can get.

 

[GarlandM8]

looks like another low moving in Mon/Wed behind this one, and bringing colder
air with it.

HIGH LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK IS IN PLACE WITH MODELS DEVELOPING A
PROGRESSIVE JET UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCK ROUGHLY ALONG 40N. THIS
SHOULD DRIVE ENERGY/MOISTURE INLAND AND ALLOWING COLDER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE NEAR THE DATELINE SHOULD ALSO
PLAY A ROLE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BY ALLOWING
COLD POLAR AIR TO RE-ENERGIZE THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

00Z ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR POSITION WITH THE JET AS THE GFS...BUT MAKES
USE OF THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW BY DRIVING COLDER ENERGY INTO THE SIERRA
ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF SNOW LEVELS ARE BELOW 5500 FEET DUE TO THE
OPEN TAP OF COLD AIR FROM ALASKA.

 

[donbrown]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 402 PM PST THU DEC 16 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HEAVY RAIN AND VERY HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW EXPECTED AT TIMES. && .DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BUT SOME LATE AFTERNOON EROSION IS NOW OCCURRING. THIS COULD BE CONSIDERED THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM OR BETTER YET CALM BEFORE THE SERIES OF STORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP GULF OF ALASKA UPPER LOW STEERING A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 30N-40N TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE. PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER HEAVY SURGE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRECIP ESTIMATES REMAIN HIGH WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE SJ VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...HEAVIEST ON THE EAST SIDE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND FROM THE ABUNDANT LEAF FALL RECENTLY. QPF OF 5-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ROCK AND MUDSLIDES AS WELL AS RAPID RISES AND FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FLUCTUATE DURING THE WEEKEND BUT IS MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 7000 TO 8000 FEET. HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL AT TIMES WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET. A WINTER STORMS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA ABOVE 7000 FEET FROM YOSEMITE NP DOWN TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE FROM 10AM FRIDAY THROUGH 4PM SUNDAY. LOWER QPF IS EXPECTED OVER KERN COUNTY BUT THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. THE KERN DESERT WILL EXPERIENCE SOME RAIN SHADOWING BUT STILL MAY SEE FROM AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS COULD DEVELOP ON THE FAR WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VALLEY NEAR THE DIABLO AND TEMBLOR RANGES...ESPECIALLY AROUND AVENAL AND KETTLEMAN. IT LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY AROUND MONDAY BUT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE IS EXPECTED TUES-WED WITH MORE HEAVY PRECIP. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS FOR THAT SYSTEM YET...BUT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF PRECIP ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND APPEARS LIKELY.

 

[donbrown]

Most intense (for moisture) is now in the stater of California.

Moisture will be inches per hour and snow feet per hour today Sunday 19 Dec

Storm is very warm

7000 feetr seems to be getting washed out.
Snow starts at 8000-9000 feet but stations report a mixture of rain / snow.

Mammoth Lakes CA airport 4 plus feetat 7500 feet
Town mammoth 6 pluis feet at 7900 feet
Mammoth lodge / ski chair #1 10 plus feet at 9300 feet.

Tioga pass

Ebbets Pass 9600ft 10 plus feet with 20 inches water (very thick snow)

Leavitt lake 9600 feet 14 feet plus with 26 inches water
Sonora Pass 8600 feet 9 plus feet with 17 inches water

Rubicon Lake Tahoe 7500 feet 5 feet plus with 14 inches water

Truckee CA 6500 feet 3 feet with 12 inches water

Lassen Peak 8200 feet 4 feet with 10 inches water.

TEMPS are well below 25F above 8000 feet from Los Angeles to Susanville.
Should stay that way all day and dump the fluffy stuff !!!

 

[donbrown]

Snow level went to at least 7000 feet last night ... Kern, Tulare , Kings, Mammoth , Inyo , Sonora , Arnold , oakhurst, Truckee , Tahoe.

Most indicators report 1-2 feet at 7000 feet and another 3-5 feet at 8000-10000 feet ! This is ontop of the 6-10 feet from Friday-Saturday.

Storms likely with 1-2 feet (8000 feet) daily to 27 December WITH small 12 hour windows if any break between storms.

Temps are expected to drop and stay below freezin (at 8000 feet) from now till 27 December.

After 27 December prediction models say another BIG storm !!!!

 

[NorCal-sledder]

The snow elevation in NorCal this morning was around 2000ft as it was snowing in Dunsmuir. I don't think were getting quite the quantities up here as it is down south but the snow level definitely seems to be quite a bit lower in the Lassen to Shasta region.

 

[donbrown]

The snow elevation in NorCal this morning was around 2000ft as it was snowing in Dunsmuir. I don't think were getting quite the quantities up here as it is down south but the snow level definitely seems to be quite a bit lower in the Lassen to Shasta region.

The storm starting tonight is a "new" storm coming from the north and should be colder.

 

[donbrown]

Cold front here to stay until 27 December.

Pushed moisture south to at least KERN/Tulare County.

Snow forecasted for Los Angeles Countuy .... 1-6 feet above 7000 feet!

Rain 3-8 inches next 48 hours in Los Angeles.

North of Kern up to Susanville (that is as far as I checked) ... some light snow nothing major until 25 Dec.

Suppose to stay below freezing above 7000 feet for a while.

For Kern Tulare County

2 plus feet at Horse meadow Gate! (Bob from NFS says this via Kernville NFS stattion)

Sherman Peak has at least 12 feet .... Big Meadow 30 inches.

They are gonna start plowing Sherman to Horse meadow turnoff from Sherman and expect to be complete by the 27th ... if they don't get more snow.

 

[shredder]

Don , what si your forcast for Nor Cal for next week?
thanks
scott

Cold front here to stay until 27 December.

Pushed moisture south to at least KERN/Tulare County.

Snow forecasted for Los Angeles Countuy .... 1-6 feet above 7000 feet!

Rain 3-8 inches next 48 hours in Los Angeles.

North of Kern up to Susanville (that is as far as I checked) ... some light snow nothing major until 25 Dec.

Suppose to stay below freezing above 7000 feet for a while.

For Kern Tulare County

2 plus feet at Horse meadow Gate! (Bob from NFS says this via Kernville NFS stattion)

Sherman Peak has at least 12 feet .... Big Meadow 30 inches.

They are gonna start plowing Sherman to Horse meadow turnoff from Sherman and expect to be complete by the 27th ... if they don't get more snow.

 

[donbrown]

Don , what si your forcast for Nor Cal for next week?
thanks
scott

The forecasters are so focused on the next 3 days ... they are only going out for 7 days. They are focusing on dam and drainage failure like the one that happened in Mcfarland today.



These previous week and next few days will be a record for many areas ... Mammoth has 15 feet in 3 days !!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/hnx/

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
830 PM PST TUE DEC 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 PM PST TUESDAY...KMUX RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF
RAIN MOVING OVER THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. PRESENT FORECAST
LOOKS SPOT ON INDICATING HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE WET WEATHER CYCLE CONTINUES TO UNFOLD WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL
SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. QPF FORECAST BY THE MODELS IS
AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH ON AVERAGE BUT SOME SPOTS MAY GET MORE DUE TO
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

THE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL DRY OUT BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM COMES ROLLING IN OFF THE PACIFIC FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. QPF LOOKS
TO BE ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO THE STORM WE`RE GETTING TONIGHT. TWO SOLID
DAYS OF DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT JUST ENOUGH SO THE
NEXT STORM IS NOT LIKELY TO LEAD TO ANY MAJOR HYDRO PROBLEMS.

PRESENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH LOOKS ON TRACK. SEE NO REASON FOR
UPDATES TONIGHT.