finnally a winter storm warning

[acs47x]

finnally a storm warning!!!

Now it needs to do this get sunny for 2 days, do it again pattern
... WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BOISE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... FOR BAKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON... AND THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS... CAMAS PRAIRIE... AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO. THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY... AND BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY... RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO BAKER COUNTY OREGON. IN THE EVENING... THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. WINDS WILL GUST AT OR ABOVE 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... THE SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER AND EASILY BLOWN AROUND. THEREFORE... BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES BELOW 5000 FEET AND FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET IN BAKER COUNTY OREGON... FROM 10 TO 20 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS... AND FROM 4 TO 10 INCHES ON THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND IN SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY. BLOWING OF SNOW MAY RESULT IN DRIFTS UP TO 3 FEET DEEP ABOVE 7000 FEET IN ELEVATION IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET... OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

[powder Head]

Wohoo, I have been holding my breath. We're planning our 2 week Christmas trip in that direction. Was starting to get a little worried. Bring it on..............

 

[jlowe]

yep...we've got a gooder coming to cali finally...

MODEL AGREEMENT IS BETTER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOW SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA. ONLY BIG CONCERN IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SPEEDS IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH. 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH HAS THE LOW CLEARING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE SIERRA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. EVEN MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A LOW OR TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL DATA. THE PATTERN IMMEDIATELY BRINGS THE CONCERN FOR A MULTI DAY SNOW EVENT IN THE SIERRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS Probability SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO LIKELY IN THE SIERRA DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND LOWER ENSEMBLE SPREADS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 FOR THE SIERRA PEAKS AND 15 TO 1 FOR AREAS DOWN TO 6000 FEET INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN SO EVEN QPF TOTALS AS LOW AS 0.50 INCHES WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT POWDERY ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SIERRA. STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO GO UNTIL THE EVENT ARRIVES SO THERE COULD BE CHANGES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW THEY SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE FOR A WINTER STORM

jeff

 

[Catskinner]

yep...we've got a gooder coming to cali finally...

MODEL AGREEMENT IS BETTER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOW SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA. ONLY BIG CONCERN IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SPEEDS IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH. 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH HAS THE LOW CLEARING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE SIERRA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. EVEN MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A LOW OR TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL DATA. THE PATTERN IMMEDIATELY BRINGS THE CONCERN FOR A MULTI DAY SNOW EVENT IN THE SIERRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS Probability SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO LIKELY IN THE SIERRA DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND LOWER ENSEMBLE SPREADS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 FOR THE SIERRA PEAKS AND 15 TO 1 FOR AREAS DOWN TO 6000 FEET INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN SO EVEN QPF TOTALS AS LOW AS 0.50 INCHES WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT POWDERY ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SIERRA. STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO GO UNTIL THE EVENT ARRIVES SO THERE COULD BE CHANGES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW THEY SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE FOR A WINTER STORM

jeff

What???

 

[GMCRMK]

What???

The cows are laying down and facing East. It gonna snow for a day or two!

 

[F-Bomb]

You can tell it's snowing cause the phone is ringing off of the hook.

Yup here we go! OK Momma Nature, lay it down steady until Christmas...THEN SUNNY CALM AND COLD.

Baker to McCall...hey that pretty much has ME covered.

 

[King o the Hill]

The cows are laying down and facing East. It gonna snow for a day or two!

LMAO.... you must have seen the Reno forecasts for a while.....

 

[Catskinner]

The cows are laying down and facing East. It gonna snow for a day or two!

OOHH!! NOW I GET IT.
I was getting very concerned because there was somewhat of a low spread in the Ensemble data. Also, the 00Z GFS is a bit slower than the ECMWF which has the low clearing the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday and I was hoping it would wait until Thursday AM. But even if the "ENSEMBLE MEMBERS" show a low or trough slowly moving south along the coast Sunday through Tuesday. FURTHERMORE, THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FAVORABLE FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL DATA. THE PATTERN IMMEDIATELY BRINGS THE CONCERN FOR A MULTI DAY SNOW EVENT IN THE SIERRA. HAVE INCREASED POPS Probability SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO LIKELY IN THE SIERRA DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT AND LOWER ENSEMBLE SPREADS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 TO 1 FOR THE SIERRA PEAKS AND 15 TO 1 FOR AREAS DOWN TO 6000 FEET INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN SO EVEN QPF TOTALS AS LOW AS 0.50 INCHES WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT POWDERY ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SIERRA. STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO GO UNTIL THE EVENT ARRIVES SO THERE COULD BE CHANGES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW THEY SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A BETTER CHANCE FOR A WINTER STORM...................................................... THIS PHENOMENON RUSULTS IN THE SIERRA'S, SUCKING ALL THE MOISTURE OUT OF THIS STORM BEFORE IT REACHES NORTHERN UTAH!!!

 

[JohnnyQuestUtah]

100%

One Sweet forecast !

Peace Out,

Johnny

 

[GMCRMK]

The hills will be crawling next week!!!!!

 

[Wheel House Motorsports]

hah, my town is in a freakin BLIZZARD WARNING.... thats gonna be fun, glad im down at college, not there!!

 

[2XM3]

Looks really good so far, I hope we get dumped on........