February Dumpage?!!

[sledsurfer]

A friend of mine from Stevens Pass just sent this to me, hopefully they're right!:

"Our weather forecaster at Stevens Pass said we are entering a LaNina pattern starting this weekend. The ocean temperatures at the equator are cooling down and the winds that make the storms will be good for the Washington cascades and southern B.C. "

Monthly forecast for temp and precipe.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

 

[deepdiver]

If they consulted with Fordman there may be some merit to this, but if they didnt Hmmmmmmmmm.

 

[UBRultra]

At the risk of comming off like a pessimist...

I'll believe any forecast that's calling for snow when it's piled up on the ground. Have had too many hopes dashed this season to believe any of the weather-guessers....

 

[wheresthesnow]

That's about the most vague gobeldy goop weather forecast I've ever read. Uh Huh, bank on dat.

 

[rynokron]

I hope so becase this El'Sucko pattern we have now is really bummin me out.

 

[snowryder]

A friend of mine from Stevens Pass just sent this to me, hopefully they're right!:

"Our weather forecaster at Stevens Pass said we are entering a LaNina pattern starting this weekend. The ocean temperatures at the equator are cooling down and the winds that make the storms will be good for the Washington cascades and southern B.C. "

Monthly forecast for temp and precipe.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

Take a look at these 2 links...There might be hope for this year after all!

http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2009/108/1

http://seagrant.oregonstate.edu/blogs/h2onc/2009/01/08/la-nina-settles-in-late-high-probability-of-continued-wet-and-cold-winter/

 

[Flakey]

That's about the most vague gobeldy goop weather forecast I've ever read. Uh Huh, bank on dat.

Hahaha gobeldy goop....... Lol

 

[UBRultra]

Those articles are both from Jan. 8. How much snow have we had in WA since then? Answer, very little. From what I see via the snowtel sensor network, there's been NO snowfall between Jan 12 through 26th. And between the 26th and now, there's been a .9 inch change...

When we start to see 1 - 2 feet of new being rung out from a storm, I'll be overjoyed..

 

[Yamamauler]

I just took care of this, no more worries. I'm predicting snow in 2'-3' range by Wednesday at the latest.
I just washed my truck, I sealed in bad weather by dressing the tires with meguires. Fresh coat of wax also. Should be raining by 4:45 am tomorrow, about the time I pull out of the garage.
If I were pushing for sun I would have put on new wiper blades and coated the windows with Rain-X.

Y

 

[UBRultra]

We will all owe you BIG time if your prediction comes to pass...

 

[PowderMiner]

Revisited Last Fall's Math...

Looked at my graph again with data that I didn't have yet in the fall. I plotted the rest of last years Southern Pacific Oscillation temperatures with Plain Washington snowfall data found in the hardware’s monthly newsletter. I originally used the snow measurement taken near Fish Lake of 243" inches last year; while Plain only measured 181". Also the SPO temperature oscillation was warmer than originally predicted. Where I used a neutral oscillation of 0 (as predicted); the actual readings (August - November) were actually ~ +1. December was -1.41 degrees Celsius lower than "normal" prompting the recent predictions of a colder and wetter Pacific Northwest. This changed the average oscillation, for the year, from an assumed -.475 degrees to an actual -.25 degrees.

The original graph (October 2008) and trend line showed a 22.3% (R sq) chance of 160” being the #; while I said, looking at the graph that we were in the “snow sweet spot” (and made a bold, possibly bias, prediction of 200”+ due to the snow check of one said 09 D8) due to 4 (3 real 1 assumed) seasons with 200 + within a .5 degree range.

Last Fall's Graph

The adjusted trend line #, with the actual average SPO of -.25, is 150” with a 22.5% (R sq) chance.

Updated graph

The Midway snow season to date total is 102.5” leading me to assume Plain is ~97” (Fish Lake x .945).

SO if you look at the December –1.41 and the January –1.1 degree oscillation; along with the forecast from many of a colder and wetter winter/spring remaining….

I calculated the 75th percentile of the last 39 years of monthly snowfall data from plain to come up with 31” in February, 13.5” in March, and 1” in April, giving Plain a predicted 2008/2009 total snowfall of 142.5” and near Midway (Fish Lake) 151”.

I apologize if I got anyone’s hopes up or even worse if I influenced you to purchase something. Even the experts said that the La Nina to warm and back to cold is very unusual; we will know in May!

 

[2PolarisRiders]

Farmers Almanac weather forecast

Snow?
Precipitation-wise, most of the South, as well as the Midwest, should experience above-normal conditions, while the rest of the nation will average close to normal. With below-normal winter temperatures and an above-normal precipitation forecast, the Great Lakes and Midwest will see above-normal snowfalls, especially during January and February.

Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the Southwest during December 2008 and for the Southeast in January and February 2009. It should also turn out to be an unusually wet and/or snowy February across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

In contrast, for the Pacific Northwest, where wet weather is usually the rule during the winter, February could actually turn out to be a bit drier than normal.
http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/could-this-winters-weather-add-to-economic-woes

Thats it - we're movin to the mid west!

 

[Higgins-LCHC]

There was a gentleman from the Chelan Co. PUD on the radio this morning talking about the snowpack in the mtns. It has been messured out at 70% of what we had compared to last year at this time. It better snow soon.
Higs