Install the app
How to install the app on iOS

Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.

Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.

  • Don't miss out on all the fun! Register on our forums to post and have added features! Membership levels include a FREE membership tier.

Crap, another El Nino winter

N

nuggetau

Well-known member
The forecast is for another El Nino winter which means warmer and drier for a big chunk of the west. The only real good news is for the guys near the sierra/nevada's they will likely get hammered again this year. The rest of us will likely have a sub par to crappy winter. Hope like hell the NWS is WRONG! Here's a link in case you want to read the bad news yourself. We should already have some good snow at 8000', instead it's only a couple inches and raining at 5-7000', not a good start!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html
 
North of the border yes, south of the border warmer and drier than normal, so says the NWS. REALLY hope they are wrong!
 
Heck the last 2 years in Idaho have been real good winters but the snow has not come until mid december so I am not worried. If there is no snow at christmas than I will get worried. Weather forecasters are about as reliable as my 8 year old boy keeping his room clean.
 
Heck the last 2 years in Idaho have been real good winters but the snow has not come until mid december so I am not worried. If there is no snow at christmas than I will get worried. Weather forecasters are about as reliable as my 8 year old boy keeping his room clean.

So your saying I'm as reliable as your son cleaning his room! Thanks a lot:rolleyes:
 
I read just the opposite couple of days ago. Read that the midwest will be warmer and dryer and the east and west coast will not. Don't take too much faith in nws forecast. Remember how wrong they were the winter of 1996? I do. October 17 there were more trucks spun out of Snoqualmie than hooks to pull em' up the hill.
 
I would make a distinction where people get their weather forecast. If you get it from your local weather guy/girl I would give it less credibility as they often try and tweak the forecast/data and put their local spin/interpretation on it, many Internet forecasts are just plain pathetic day in and day out. However, I have to give NOAA/NWS some props, that is where I get my weather forecast each day and they are usually spot on, temperature predictions are within 2 degrees day in day out and the actual predictions for precipitation is in the high 90% for accuracy. Admittedly long range forecasts are less reliable, but still they get it more right than wrong. (Still hoping they are wrong this time)

Virtually all weather forecasts and data come from the NWS, but the interpretation of that data/forecasts by others is VERY suspect. Get your weather forecasts from the source, not some second rate local TV weatherman.
 
I read the elnino currents are already heading south and will be back to "normal" by end of December. :beer;
Then again, we had our world record snowfall during a elnino winter, so who really knows :confused:
 
For some reason, I seem to remember the Old Farmer's Almanac forecast for this year disagreeing with the NOAA forecast for this winter.

The Old Farmer's Almanac supposedly uses sun spot activity as part of its formula to predict weather and sun spot activity remains extremely low.

Does anyone have a copy of the Old Farmer's Almanac prediciton for this winter? I sure like to see a copy.
 
Weather forecasters are about as reliable as my 8 year old boy keeping his room clean.

I would love to have a job where I could be wrong every day and still get
paid.
Long term forecasts are a joke. Just like long term economic forecasts.
Partly sunny or partly cloudy.....ah what? You're good etiher way unless it is cloudless or rains all day.
If you really want to hedge your bets, just throw in the 10 to 20% P.O.P. and your covered no matter what.
It's all the same voodoo "science" that Gore uses to push his global warming B.S.
Well one thing they are good at is sunrise and sunset times. Kinda hard to screw that up.:beer;
 
Up here in Northern BC i heard today that Powder king Ski Village is open with 73 cm base!!!! full hill open a month early!!!!!!!
This is my main base of sledding its called the Pine Pass or the Stewart Range.
The really great bowl after bowl places are still a month away but the Alpine is ridable and a MONTH EARLY!!!!!!!!!
so you elninio foracasters are dead wrong in my neck of the woods!

i just found out today so my engine swap is on high prority dropping all the side jobs and gettin it done!! 900 cat in CR racing Gen II.


Brian
 
The farmers almanac does say pretty much the opposite, I personally don't lend much credence to their predictions as they make theirs even further ahead in time (due to publishing requirements), and they use some dubious methods for weather predictions,in the past they used A LOT of old wives tales like "their was a lot of this or that bug doing XYZ" kind of thing (voodoo science). Which isn't to say they can't guess right once in a while. Nor, can I attest that is the kind of "science" they currently use for their predictions.

If the NWS is correct, Idaho doesn't have much to look forward to, drier and warmer=crappy snow year!

When people tell me they think the weather report is usually wrong I ask them where they are getting their forecast from, it's usually from the local tv weatherman, accuweather/weather channel/google homepage etc. If that is your source for weather prediction then yes your perception will be that the predictions are frequently wrong. I have been using the pinpoint NWS/Noaa weather forecast for several years now, it's very rare that they have been wrong, or even off by a few degrees. Perfection, no, but to be right most of the time is impressive. If you are not getting your weather predictions from the source then your perception will be MUCH different.

Here is a link to what I use, just plug in your zip code, then look at the map that appears mid page, right hand side and move the cursor to your exact location, it will then formulate the forecast for your exact location.

http://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php

Yes, you guys in BC will have a good snow year (most likely), as the El nino doesn't have the same effect on you as us south of the border.
 
Here is another useful tool when planning a trip, or when you don't know where the snow is. This snow depth map from the NWS can at least give you an idea of where the snow is and how deep. It only gives color ranges so it's not going to tell you exactly how deep the snow is, but still useful.

Here is the map from my area, look at all that snow up in BC already! Damn canadians are bogarting all the snow! :) Look how it stops right at the border, that's just not right.:(

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_mod...911/nsm_depth_2009110705_Northern_Rockies.jpg

Snow Depth

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?year=2009&month=11&day=7&units=e&region=Northern_Rockies
 
Last edited:
I have been looking forever to find something to tell me exactly how much snow was in a specific area, I have been using a few snotel sites(automated remote weather site), but they were hard to find and difficult to use. While prowling around the NWS/NOAA website I hit absolute gold, what I have been looking for. Links that immediately overlay on google earth, ALL the snotel sites and all the data, also overlays the color coded snow depth maps. Wow, this is one of the coolest things I have found on the web, this will make deciding where to go riding this winter so much easier, I will always know exactly where the best snow is! Damn, our government can do something right.:D

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/earth/
 
Farmers Almanac

I will stick to what the Farmers Almanac says, higer percip, colder temps. means great snow for the NW.:beer;
 
Premium Features



Back
Top