Cold Blue Sky riding till 13 March

[donbrown]

Okay ... maybe an isolated storm or two this weekend. Depends where low pressure system off California goes. Models say next storm 13-16 March.

Thursday, March 05, 2009 8:48:15 AM


MAMMOTH MT SNOWFALL TOTALS, 4 TO 5 FEET FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH 6.19 INCHES OF H20 IN THE SNOW AT THE MAIN LODGE....IT IS ESTIMATED THAT WE ARE NOW 100% OF NORMAL FOR WATER CONTENT UP ON MAMMOTH PASS...AND 85% OF NORMAL FOR APRIL 1ST. MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN HAS HAD OVER 400 INCHES OF SNOW FALL FOR THE 2008/2009 SEASON SO FAR. THERE IS A 12 TO 16 FOOT BASE OF POWDER AND PACKED POWDER.

IF YOUR NOT UP HERE THIS WEEKEND THEN YOUR REALLY MISSING OUT AS IT DOES NOT GET MUCH BETTER!!

QUICK UPDATE: 3-5-09

NO SURPRISES THIS MORNING...THE BLUE BIRDS SQUAWKING AT THE SOUNDS OF THE GOD-SQUAD SETTING CHARGES OFF DURING SNOW SAFETY.

NEW 12Z THURSDAY WRF SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPED PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE AT 150W. ALONG THE EAST FLANK...THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AT 300MB IS LOCATED OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS JET/SHORT WAVE WILL BE THE KICKER THAT FINALLY KICKS THE REMAINS OF THE OFF SHORE UPPER TROF INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTHERN CA. EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THAT WEAK SYSTEM...THEN THE UPPER JET MERGES WITH THE WEAKNESS TO THE SOUTH WHILE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY FRIDAY/NIGHT....THERE COULD BE A TRACE TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. TODAY'S FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAUSED BY THE REMAINS/VORT CENTER CROSSING THROUGH SO-CAL. THE LAST REMAINING VORT CENTER IS KICKED OVER VEGAS BY 10:00PM TONIGHT AND SHE'S GONE FOR GOOD.

AS A NOTE: BY FRIDAY.....700MB WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY MILD, HOWEVER THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT FOR SOME UPSLOPE WIND OVER THE CREST FOR 50MPH GUSTS.....SO IT LOOKS TO BE A NICE COUPLE OF DAYS WITH OUT ANY MAJOR WINDS OVER WOOLLY'S CREST.

SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS DIGGING A BIT MORE WEST NOW AND SO MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY AM....BUT NO BIG DEAL IF IT DOES. THEN LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND NEXT WEEK BUT DRY WITH COOLER THEN NORMAL TEMPS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE NEXT SERIES OF STORMS WILL BEGIN THAT FOLLOWING WEEKEND

 

[donbrown]

Next storm possible Friday 13 March.
Blue skies and cooler than normal till middle next week.
Enjoy the powder.



Friday, March 06, 2009 7:40:13 AM

"LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS TODAY/NIGHT AS FRONT LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER JET TRANSLATES EAST OF MAMMOTH BY 02Z SATURDAY..SO THE FLURRIES SHOULD END THIS EVENING"

THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE COOLER THEN NORMAL AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL END THIS EVENING WITH A TRACE TO UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER THE CREST TO 60MPH. HIGHS TODAY ON THE MOUNTAIN WILL REACH INTO THE 20S WITH TEMPS IN TOWN IN THE LOW 30S. LOWS TO TONIGHT IN THE TEENS.

EXPECT SOME WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER INSIDE SLIDER TYPE SYSTEM WILL KICK UP SOME UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MAMMOTH MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM TURNS EAST BEFORE IT REACHES THE EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY AND LOOKS TO BE COMPLETELY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS.HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN TO THE LOW 30S MONDAY. STRONGER RIDGING IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S BY MID WEEK.

LONG RANGE DISCUSSION:


DAYS +3 MEANS SHOWS THAT THERE IS AN UPPER TROF OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST...HENCE THE INSIDE SLIDER PATTERN WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE AFTER... THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC DE AMPLIFIES MID WEEK AS WE TRANSITION AGAIN. THE GFS DAYS +8 (FRIDAY 13TH) HAS A TROF AT 140WEST AND A MODEST RIDGE NEAR THE DATELINE. THE DAY +11 HAS A STRONG BLOCK UP OVER GREENLAND. THE GFS PROGRESSES THE TROF INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH ALL THAT SAID, THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER BLOCK JUST NORTH OF HUDSON BAY AT THE SOMETIME WITH CONTRARILY DIFFERENT EFFECTS UPON THE UPSTREAM PATTERN. THE POSITION OF THE BLOCK WITH HAVE A MAJOR EFFECT UPON THE WESTERLIES AND THEIR EFFECT UPON MAMMOTH WEEK 2.


DISCUSSION FROM TUESDAY:

A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR AS THE CURRENT TROF EXITS. THE 1ST INSIDE SLIDER TYPE SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL MERGE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CURRENT EXISTING SYSTEM FRIDAY, WITH THE FRONT LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE NEW UPPER JET RE ENERGIZING SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE 2ND INSIDE SLIDER WILL NOW SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST MONDAY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND NOT OVER THE SIERRA, WITH ITS IMPACTS MORE LIKELY JUST AN INCREASE OF NE WIND OVER THE CREST ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

MAIN EXTENDED MESSAGE:

"IT LOOKS TO BE A BLUE BIRD WEEKEND....IF YOU THINKING ABOUT COMING UP TO SKI MAMMOTH THIS WEEKEND....YOU WILL BE IN FOR A TREAT! IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON A FAIR WEATHER WEEK OF SKIING...CHOOSE NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIR, POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SERIES OF STORMS BEGINNING POSSIBLY THAT FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

 

[donbrown]

Colder than normal today

Chance of snow / rain ... Chester 30% Mammoth 20% Kernville "slight" TRUCKEE 60% with light snow !!!

Clear warming into weekend.Storm forecasted for 15th March has dematerialized. Today ... no snow for 2 weeks.

Monday, March 09, 2009 8:31:59 AM


BEWARE OF THE IDES OF MARCH!

MONDAY UPDATE:

EXPECT A COLD WINDY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE......HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN TOWN....TEMPS ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER ELEVATIONS IN THE TEENS...WITH GUSTY WINDS. IT IS A COLD DAY UP ON THE HILL...DRESS WARMLY.

THE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW BACKING OFF THE WET SCENARIO OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.....NOT MUCH OF ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE WITH MAIN WEST COAST ISO-TAC 300MB TRENDS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER JET INTO BC, CAN.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE OUT OF SYNC TO A GREAT DEGREE. THE ECMWF HAS RIDGING OVER US ON THE 15TH WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN THE 19TH....THE GFS HAS A WINDY DRY INSIDE SLIDER PATTERN FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA ON THE 15TH AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER US ON THE 19TH.

WILL THE SYSTEM EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THE 15TH OF MARCH SHOW UP AGAIN?

FOR THE TIME BEING.....THE DWEEBS HAVE A FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS. WINTER IS NOT OVER....JUST TAKING A BREAK WE BELIEVE.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS.............................

 

[donbrown]

Snow flurries than warm (too warm) till 18 March.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009 8:06:45 AM

WEDNESDAY AM UPDATE:

WEAK IMPULSE TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AM...NO BIG DEAL.....WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE TO OUR DRY AIR MASS (DP 2F AT 8:00AM).....THEN NORTHWEST SLIDER BRINGS BLUSTERY/WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING......MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TASTE OF SPRING!!!

NEXT UPDATED DISCUSSION THIS WEEKEND THURSDAY:

THE DWEEBER.....

 

[donbrown]

SUMMER SUCKS STICKERS NEED TO BE ORDERED

Thursday, March 12, 2009 9:31:56 AM

DRY...AND AT TIMES BREEZY THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DRY WEATHER (WX) WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER WEEK.....NEXT CHANCE FOR A STORM ABOUT THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING....


THE WEAK OFF SHORE UPPER LOW DECIDED TO TRACK SOUTH DOWN THE SOUTHERN CALIF COAST AND IS JUST WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THIS WEAK SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY. SOME CLOUDS...AND SOME WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IS ABOUT IT.

EXPECT A MILD DAY FRIDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE. NOTED ON THE 300MB CHARTS THIS MORNING...THERE IS A BIT OF SPEED CONVERGENCE ALOFT DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS WITH A 50KNOT UPPER JET THAT TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST...THIS COULD MEAN A PERIOD OF WIND IN THE MORNING FRIDAY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER ELEVATIONS. THEN FAIR WX WITH WEAK RIDGING THE REMAINDER OF THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SATURDAY....A NORTHWEST SLIDER COMES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MUCH LIKE THE MODELS SHOWED A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT EVEN FURTHER NORTH THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME STRONG WINDS TO NORTHERN CA...HOWEVER IT IS REALLY TO FAR NORTH FOR ANY WIND PROBLEMS HERE. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND RIDGE TOP GUSTS IN THE 60S MPH.....SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED. IT WILL BE A DRY 5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AHEAD.

MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS SOME PRETTY NICE WEATHER FOR SAINT PATTY'S DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.....NO BLARNEY!!!

UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP IT ALL TO THE NORTH. WE EVEN EXPECT WARMER THEN NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME SPRING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONGER RANGE:

IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF SPRING, THE UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH AGAIN INTO CENTRAL CA FOR A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX FOR A FEW DAYS....WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW. THIS IS JUST AN OUTLOOK OF COURSE. IT IS BECOMING VERY OBVIOUS THAT THERE IS A LOT OF SPRING IN THE OUTLOOK MAPS NOW! CHECKING THE PNA INDEX THIS MORNING (ESRL/PSD ENSEMBLE) SHOWS THE -PNA STILL CONTINUING TO BE WEAKLY NEGATIVE, HOWEVER IT IS TRENDING NEUTRAL.

AS AN ADDITION....THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY MEAN HEIGHTS SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. THE SCREAMING MASSAGE HERE IS THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE IS TOO FAR WEST LOCATED NEAR THE DATELINE WHICH TELE-CONNECTS THE LONG WAVE TROF TO ABOUT 140WEST. THIS IS ALL ABOUT 700 TO 1500 MI WEST OF WHERE I WOULD LIKE THEM TO BE. MY FAVORITE LOCATION FOR THE LONG WAVE TROF IS AT 130WEST WITH THE 552 HEIGHTS IN THE MEAN RUNNING RIGHT THROUGH MAMMOTH!

ON A POSITIVE NOTE....THE HUDSON BAY LOW IS WELL EAST OF ITS WINTERTIME POSITION. IT IS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS NORTH THROUGH THE DAVIS STRAITS. GOOD EXCESSIVE WAVE- LENGTH. BUT...NOT MUCH GOOD IT WILL DO WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AT 180W AND MAIN PV IN THE GULF OF AK. LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC UPPER JET FROM HELL IS BACK FOR WASHINGTON STATE AND WESTERN, BC.

THROUGH ALL OF THIS CIAOS, THIS PATTERN IS DECIDEDLY UNSTABLE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE. NOT SURPRISINGLY...AS SPRING IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER AND WITH THE SEASONAL CHANGE... CONTINENTAL HEATING WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH THE NUMERICAL MODELS.

WE NEED ONE MORE GOOD STORM OR TWO FOR THE SEASON.....LETS HOPE IT COMES!

 

[donbrown]

Snow showers / rain at 6500 feet next few days from Tahoe North.
Possibility to 17 March.

Snow / rain unlikely next 5 days south of Mammoth.

Next major storm front Possible the First Day of Spring ... 20 March

Spring Equinox, also known as Ostara, occurs in the middle of March. It marks the beginning of Spring and the time when days and nights are of equal length. The Goddess manifests as Ostara or Eostre with her basket of eggs. She is accompanied by the Hare or Rabbit, a manifestation of the God. Green has been sacred to this Sabbat since ancient times, because it represents the greening of the land with vegetation. This is a festival of new growth.

Prepare egg dishes and share them with friends. Organize egg games, such as egg hunts. Decorate your home with spring flowers and sprouting greens. Wear green clothing as an affirmation of new growth within yourself and Nature. Bless any seeds you plan to plant in your garden. Begin a new project. Make a growth charm out of a hard-boiled egg -- decorate it with symbols, write on it the quality you would like to manifest more fully within yourself, energize it, and then eat it.