Clear Skies Baby Storms 28 Jan - 8 Feb

[donbrown]

Mammoth Clear skies possible storm Friday - Saturday.

More likely to have more snow as go north from Mammoth.
Chances 20% Mammoth , 30% Truckee , 0% Sequoias, 60% Shasta

Vary in temps lows 10-20's highs upper 30's low 40's.​

Wednesday, January 27, 2010 9:24:47 AM

SPLIT FLOW BLUES FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA.....HOWEVER....THE PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS....OFFERING TO CHASE THEM BLUES AWAY!

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA.

EXPECT FAIR SKIES TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AS A RESULT FROM YESTERDAYS SPLITTING SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY WILL BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S FROM YESTERDAYS LOW 40S. INVERSIONS WILL TIGHTEN UP TOMORROW WITH A LOT CHILLIER AIR RETURNING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS. UPPER ELEVATIONS, INCLUDING THE RESIDENTIAL AREAS OF MAMMOTH AND JUNE WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 40S. THE "POGONIP" WILL RETURN TO AREAS SURROUNDING MONO LAKE.

ANOTHER SPLITTING SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE MONO COUNTY AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH COOLING EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OVER ALL.....
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE UPPER ELEV'S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OVER NIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S NEAR THE VILLAGE AT MAMMOTH. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE RESIDENTIAL AREAS OF MAMMOTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

JANUARY 27TH:

TELECONNECTIONS AND LONG RANGE:

BOTH POSITIVE PHASE PNA AND NEGATIVE PHASE NAO INDEXES ARE CURRENTLY LESS THEN 1 STANDARD DEVIATION OF NORMAL. THE NAO IS TRENDING TOWARD NEUTRAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE BY LATER NEXT WEEK.

LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS TRENDS SUPPORT THESE TELECONNECTIONS DRIFTING TOWARD NEUTRAL DURING "WEEK TWO", SO FROM THAT STAND POINT, THE PRESENT RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE FAR WEST SHOULD BOTH DE-AMPLIFY WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EAST. THE EXCESSIVE WAVE LENGTH SHOULD ALLOW SHORT WAVE SYSTEMS TO PENETRATE FURTHER INLAND AS THE FLOW OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC OPENS UP ALLOWING THE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY FAR WEST TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED.

THE ONLY ADDITIONAL COMMENTS THIS MORNING THE DWEEBS WOULD ADD, IS THAT THERE IS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MID TO LONG RANGE CONFIDENCE "THIS MORNING" VIA THE DAYS+ GFS MEANS, THAT THE PATTERN WILL TURN WET THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND FOR CALIFORNIA. THE PATTERN IN THE LONGER RANGE CHARTS SUGGEST A TREND TO A PERIOD OF LARGER SCALE, PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE TROFING THAT INITIALLY SETS UP A BIT EAST OF 140W BETWEEN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS TIME, THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED, AND WITH A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC CURVATURE THAN THE LAST SEQUENCE WITH AN ADDED TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE TRADITIONAL TYPE STORM SEQUENCE WITH A GOOD STRONG FETCH WITH PERIODIC ITZ TAPS. THE SUBTROPICAL TAPS WILL MAINLY EFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED IN THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS 700RH. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SOUTHERN CA.

AT THIS TIME....THIS IS JUST A GOOD STORMY PATTERN FOR CA...NO DOOM AND GLOOM FORECASTS LIKE SOME OF THE OTHER FORECASTS THAT ACCOMPANIED THE LAST SEQUENCE OF STORMS FOR CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY THING THAT THE DWEEBS WOULD ADD IS THAT SO-CAL HILLSIDES ARE PRETTY SATURATED FROM THE LAST SEQUENCE IN THE SO-CAL AREA. HOWEVER, I WOULD IMAGINE THAT RESIDENTIAL AREAS ARE PRETTY PREPARED BY THIS TIME.

UPPER JET:

THE UPPER JET AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO WANT TO SET UP MORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RATHER THEN NORTHERN BAJA. ALTHOUGH NOT IDEAL...THIS SHOULD BE A BIT WETTER FOR THE MAMMOTH AREA THEN THE LAST SERIES. ALL OF THIS OF COURSE IS SUBJECT TO ADJUSTMENT THIS FAR OUT, HOWEVER ALL VERY PROMISING. STAY TUNED>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

THE DWEEBER................

 

[jpxp154]

TIME TO RIDE.

 

[donbrown]

TIME TO RIDE.

Oh ya !

 

[donbrown]

Light snow Late Friday Saturday from Mammoth to Shasta.

1-3 inches accumulation.

Friday Sat estimates

Shasta %0%
Susanville 30-60%
Truckee 20-70%
Mammoth 20-60%
Sequoia 0%
Big Bear 0%

Possible storm Tues-Wed 2-3 Feb with accumulation of a few inches.

 

[donbrown]

Mammoth Says small storm measured in inches Tuesday Wed but not sure how much snow for weekend of 8-9 Feb

Late weekend storm (now say Sun-Tues) may be large ... over a foot but not sure where it is going to fall in California

Los Angeles saying up to 1/2 inch rain Tuesday Wed and 1-2 inches for weekend of 8-9 Feb


Nor Cal saying similar above with biggest snowfall around Tahoe

Snow falling to 4000 feet with accumulation above 5500

Shasta 40 % Tuesday thru Sunday
Below is for Tuesday Wednesday but not weekend cause it is not published yet.
Susanville 30-50%
Truckee 40-50%
Mammoth 40-50%
Sequoia 30-50%
Big Bear 20-30%
​

Sunday, January 31, 2010 8:01:22 AM

BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY AND PRETTY NICE AS WELL MONDAY...THEN MORE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS....BETTER STORM PREDICTED FOR WEEKS END.....>>>>

UPPER RIDGE TO HOLD THOUGH MONDAY WITH FAIR BUT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

FIRST TWO SYSTEMS VERY WEAK THIS WEEK WITH ONLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

LARGER SCALE DEVELOPING TROF WILL TAKE ITS TIME COMING IN WITH SNOW BEGINNING EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY....THEN GOOD CHANCE FOR BENEFICIAL SNOWFALL NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.


DR HOWARD AND THEW DWEEBS...........................

SO-CAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 235 PM PST SUN JAN 31 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH MORNING AND NIGHTTIME FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE DISTRICT BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. && .DISCUSSION...VALLEY FOG BURNED OFF THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WHILE 24 HOUR TREND IN TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING SOME 5 DEG-F BELOW THAT OF SATURDAY...TODAYS SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SIMILAR CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD...WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THIS MORNING AND MAINLY ALONG THE RIVER SYSTEM NEAR THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY. BY TUESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS PROG THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STORMS TO ENTER THE DISTRICT. CURRENT PROG SHOW THE PRECIP PATTERN HAVING DIFFICULTY GATHERING STEAM AS IT PASSES CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LATEST SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM/GFS SHOW A SPLITTING SYSTEM WITH MUCH OF ITS ENERGY EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WHILE THE DISTRICT MAY SEE PRECIP... AMOUNTS MAY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SPECIAL PRODUCTS TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL UNFOLD. IF THIS STORM DOES SPLIT...MUCH OF OUR PRECIP MAY BE FROM OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF AXIS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PRECIP ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ENTER THE REGION TOWARD FRIDAY. WHILE THE TIMING MAY BE OFF ON WHEN THE PRECIP ENDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PRECIP STARTS ON FRIDAY...KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AT CLIMO LEVELS FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW LESS UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAYS STORM AS DYNAMICS COULD PROVIDE FOR BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP. BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THE JET STREAM SHIFTING NORTH WITH A +120KT JET MAX PUSHING INTO THE AREA CLOSER TO SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MORE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SETS UP OVER CALIFORNIA. ECMWF/GFS/NOGAP AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW THIS DEVELOPING SOLUTION TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN THE LONG TERM.

Nor CAl forecast

000
FXUS65 KREV 312034
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1234 PM PST SUN JAN 31 2010

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERAL S-SW FLOW
MON-WED WITH MAIN WEATHER FEATURE A SPLITTING UPPER LOW THAT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MODELS IN IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO TUES...BUT
DIVERGE GREATLY BY WED. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW AND IF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT MOVES ONSHORE. SRN PART
OF THE SPLIT WILL BE NEAR BAJA AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR. EC
IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SPLIT COMING ONSHORE NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER WHILE THE NAM BRINGS THE SPLIT SOUTH OF THE BAY
AREA. GFS IS IN BETWEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON. ATTM...WHILE THE
NAM IS SOMEWHAT PLAUSIBLE WILL DISCOUNT IT FOR NOW AND GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE GFS/EC WHICH HAVE MOST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.

FIRST PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST
TOMORROW...BUT NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED HERE EXCEPT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR TUES...ALTHOUGH I WOULD EXPECT A
BETTER CHC FOR PRECIP WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND. STILL...AFTER A
GNLY DRY FCST THE NEXT 24 HRS...HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS IN THE
SIERRA AND SLGT CHC INTO EXTREME WRN NV FOR MON NIGHT AND TUES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF HWY 95. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 5-5500 FEET...AND ANYTHING
THAT DOES FALL WILL BE SHOWERY AND LIGHT. REALLY NO SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE.

MAIN WAVE THEN TO MOVE THROUGH WITH THE NRN PART OF THE SPLIT LATE
TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FOLLOWING THE GFS/EC...DID INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY IN SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH...WITH SOME LOW CHCS INTO
EXTREME NW NV. A LITTLE MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING AS IT COME IN NEG
TILT. AGAIN...NEG TILT WILL MINIMIZE ANY GOOD OROGRAPHICS AND
SPILLOVER SO DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED. SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
LOWER TO 4-4500 FEET BY WED NIGHT AS COLD AIR BLEEDS IN SINCE
THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED FRONT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE SIERRA CREST FROM TAHOE NORTH WITH
MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AS YOU DROP IN ELEVATION. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST COAST THIS PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HOWEVER HAVE BEEN CONSISTENLY TARGETING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SPILLOVER INTO
WESTERN VALLEYS. THEREFORE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS 12-HR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA THAT COULD RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW AS THE JET REMAINS FAR SOUTH...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
30N LATITUDE.

LEADING UP TO SATURDAY THE GFS HAS COME INTO LINE WITH PREVIOUS EC
SCENARIOS WHICH DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
WEDNESDAYS TROUGH. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA
FOR THURSDAY BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW. MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IN PUSHING
THE RIDGE EAST PUTTING OUR AREA IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS
PERIOD WHILE THE EC CONTINUES TO HIT THE CA COASTAL RANGE AND
QUICKLY WEAKEN ENERGY MOVING INLAND.

BY SUNDAY THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AGAIN WITH THE EC HANGING
ONTO A TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE GFS INDICATING
CONTINUATION OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW RESULTING IN RIDGING AND A
QUICK END TO PRECIPITATION.

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT IN THE 5K-6K RANGE THURSDAY BUT WILL RISE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...PROBABLY INCREASING 1000 TO 1500 FEET. THIS COULD BOOST SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE THE TAHOE LAKE LEVEL SATURDAY DURING SOME OF THE
HEAVIER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY EVENING
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH. JAH