Best storm of the year ? 15-19 MAR
- Thread starter donbrown
- Start date
Storm starts warm levels at 8000 feet 13-14 MAR falling to 5000 feet by FRI-SAT 16-17 MAR
Moisture starts north then goes south ... Amounts of snow depends what day the cold mixes with the mloisture.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
320 AM PST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY WILL PREVAIL AS RIDGE OVER CA-NV FLATTENS
AND SW FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS ABOVE 6000 FEET WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AS 700 MB TEMPS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BUT FOR
THE VALLEYS TEMPS WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHANCE TO TOUCH 70 DEGREES
AS AIR MASS WILL BE WELL MIXED. MOS GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
WERE AGAIN TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THE SAME RESULT IS PROBABLE TODAY.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BUT COVERAGE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE VERY THICK THIS AFTERNOON.
A CHANGE TO A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
BUT AT LEAST THRU EARLY IN THE WEEK THIS TRANSITION WILL EVOLVE
SLOWLY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NERN CA-
NWRN NV AND THE CA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN LATE TONIGHT THRU
SUNDAY, BUT THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WASH OUT SUN NIGHT WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIP FAILING TO PROGRESS BEYOND THESE AREAS. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS TO WRN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE LATE MONDAY THRU MON NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SHADOWING WILL BE STRONG AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW
WITH DRIER AIR AND STABLE LAYER ABOVE 600 MB. INCREASING 700 MB
WINDS TO NEAR 60 KT MAY PUSH SOME LIGHT PRECIP A FEW MILES
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CREST AT BEST, WHILE THE WEST SLOPE OF THE
SIERRA RECEIVES STEADY RAIN AND SNOW WITH QPF UP TO 1 INCH FROM
SUN AFTN THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR WRN NV AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN CA, WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT THRU MON NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY-SUN NIGHT
WILL BRING THE FIRST INCREASE IN WINDS WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH IN
MOST AREAS, EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT STRONGER IN FAR NWRN NV. FOR
MONDAY-MON NIGHT, THE STRONGER 700 MB FLOW WILL BRING A FURTHER
INCREASE IN WIND MONDAY AFTN-MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIDGES
AS GUSTS COULD REACH 100 MPH. HOWEVER, THE BASE OF THE STABLE
LAYER AS INDICATED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS STARTS AT 600 MB, WHICH
IS TOO HIGH ABOVE RIDGE LEVEL FOR PRODUCING A HIGH IMPACT DOWNSLOPE
OR MOUNTAIN WAVE INDUCED WIND EVENT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS
IT STANDS NOW, GUSTS SHOULD STILL REACH OR EXCEED 40 MPH IN MOST
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 50 MON AFTN-EVE.
WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY-MONDAY, THE MAGNITUDE OF
COOLING IS LESS SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. MOST
VALLEYS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 50S BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER
NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. MJD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 13-16 MAR CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION
EVENT IN THE SIERRA FROM ALPINE COUNTY NORTH TO WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY, WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL FROM TUESDAY TO
FRIDAY BELOW 7000 FEET. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SEVERAL
FEET OF SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY-THURSDAY
AND ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SIERRA ABOVE 7000 FEET FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS WITH STATIONARY TROUGH ALONG 130W
DIRECTING A WARM AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN THE SIERRA ABOVE
7000 FEET. MAIN ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST ARE HOW HIGH SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, SHADOWING AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA/MONO COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND TIMING THE SNOW LEVEL
DROP LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SNOW LEVELS: AS THE PLUME PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY,
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT 5000-5500 FEET NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH
AND 6000-7000 FEET SOUTH OF I-80. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
PLUME WILL INCREASE SNOW LEVELS AS HIGH AS 7000-7500 FEET NORTH OF
I-80 AND 7500-8500 FEET SOUTH OF I-80 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO THE WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEY FLOORS, HOWEVER THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. THIS PRODUCES
A LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT LOWER UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS: MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY
IN THE LIQUID TOTALS
TUESDAY-THURSDAY, 13-15 MAR WITH HIGH END AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 89 FROM LASSEN COUNTY TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE TAHOE
BASIN. FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY 16-17 MAR WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW 7000 FEET FRIDAY-SATURDAY ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOW LEVEL FORECAST. FOR WESTERN NEVADA SHADOWING AND LACK OF LIFT WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNTIL THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES INLAND. BRONG
Moisture starts north then goes south ... Amounts of snow depends what day the cold mixes with the mloisture.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
320 AM PST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY WILL PREVAIL AS RIDGE OVER CA-NV FLATTENS
AND SW FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS ABOVE 6000 FEET WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER AS 700 MB TEMPS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BUT FOR
THE VALLEYS TEMPS WILL HAVE ONE MORE CHANCE TO TOUCH 70 DEGREES
AS AIR MASS WILL BE WELL MIXED. MOS GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
WERE AGAIN TOO COOL YESTERDAY AND THE SAME RESULT IS PROBABLE TODAY.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BUT COVERAGE IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE VERY THICK THIS AFTERNOON.
A CHANGE TO A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
BUT AT LEAST THRU EARLY IN THE WEEK THIS TRANSITION WILL EVOLVE
SLOWLY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NERN CA-
NWRN NV AND THE CA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN LATE TONIGHT THRU
SUNDAY, BUT THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WASH OUT SUN NIGHT WITH
MEASURABLE PRECIP FAILING TO PROGRESS BEYOND THESE AREAS. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS TO WRN LASSEN COUNTY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE LATE MONDAY THRU MON NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SHADOWING WILL BE STRONG AS MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW
WITH DRIER AIR AND STABLE LAYER ABOVE 600 MB. INCREASING 700 MB
WINDS TO NEAR 60 KT MAY PUSH SOME LIGHT PRECIP A FEW MILES
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CREST AT BEST, WHILE THE WEST SLOPE OF THE
SIERRA RECEIVES STEADY RAIN AND SNOW WITH QPF UP TO 1 INCH FROM
SUN AFTN THRU SUN NIGHT.
FOR WRN NV AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NERN CA, WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT THRU MON NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY-SUN NIGHT
WILL BRING THE FIRST INCREASE IN WINDS WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH IN
MOST AREAS, EXCEPT POSSIBLY A BIT STRONGER IN FAR NWRN NV. FOR
MONDAY-MON NIGHT, THE STRONGER 700 MB FLOW WILL BRING A FURTHER
INCREASE IN WIND MONDAY AFTN-MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIDGES
AS GUSTS COULD REACH 100 MPH. HOWEVER, THE BASE OF THE STABLE
LAYER AS INDICATED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS STARTS AT 600 MB, WHICH
IS TOO HIGH ABOVE RIDGE LEVEL FOR PRODUCING A HIGH IMPACT DOWNSLOPE
OR MOUNTAIN WAVE INDUCED WIND EVENT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS
IT STANDS NOW, GUSTS SHOULD STILL REACH OR EXCEED 40 MPH IN MOST
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 50 MON AFTN-EVE.
WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY-MONDAY, THE MAGNITUDE OF
COOLING IS LESS SIGNIFICANT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. MOST
VALLEYS SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID-UPR 50S BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER
NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. MJD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... 13-16 MAR CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION
EVENT IN THE SIERRA FROM ALPINE COUNTY NORTH TO WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY, WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL FROM TUESDAY TO
FRIDAY BELOW 7000 FEET. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SEVERAL
FEET OF SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY-THURSDAY
AND ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SIERRA ABOVE 7000 FEET FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE MODELS WITH STATIONARY TROUGH ALONG 130W
DIRECTING A WARM AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY IN THE SIERRA ABOVE
7000 FEET. MAIN ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST ARE HOW HIGH SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, SHADOWING AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA/MONO COUNTY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND TIMING THE SNOW LEVEL
DROP LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SNOW LEVELS: AS THE PLUME PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA TUESDAY,
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT 5000-5500 FEET NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH
AND 6000-7000 FEET SOUTH OF I-80. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
PLUME WILL INCREASE SNOW LEVELS AS HIGH AS 7000-7500 FEET NORTH OF
I-80 AND 7500-8500 FEET SOUTH OF I-80 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO THE WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEY FLOORS, HOWEVER THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. THIS PRODUCES
A LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 7000 FEET FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SNOW LEVELS MAY NOT LOWER UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS: MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY
IN THE LIQUID TOTALS
TUESDAY-THURSDAY, 13-15 MAR WITH HIGH END AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 89 FROM LASSEN COUNTY TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE TAHOE
BASIN. FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY 16-17 MAR WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW 7000 FEET FRIDAY-SATURDAY ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SNOW LEVEL FORECAST. FOR WESTERN NEVADA SHADOWING AND LACK OF LIFT WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNTIL THE TROUGH/FRONT MOVES INLAND. BRONG
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HANFORD FORECASTER THINKS MOSTLY HIT FRESNO NORTH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
208 AM PST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOW PRESSURE PATTERN BRINGING COOLING TO
THE AREA SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCES FROM FRESNO COUNTY
AND NORTHWARD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING ELONGATED AND NARROWING AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG
PACIFIC TROUGH IS INCREASING. FOR TODAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE
INDICATOR OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN RESIDING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS. BY TOMORROW THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND JUST CLIP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ALTHOUGH I DON`T THINK IT WILL RAIN, I HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH OTHER WEATHER
OFFICES. THE PROJECTED PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO FEATURE
A SERIES OF WET DISTURBANCES TAKING AIM ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AGAIN, THE MAIN POINT OF CONCERN IS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA, I HAVE MADE JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF CALIF HAVING THE HIGHEST THREAT OF GETTING
WET. IF CURRENT MODEL DATA HOLDS TRUE, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT AS BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DRIVE A MUCH COLDER THROUGH DEEP INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO RATHER LOW
ELEVATIONS IS THE AMOUNT OF PROJECTED COLD AIR COMES TO FRUITION.ALL IN ALL IN THIS VERY DRY YEAR ANY PRECIPITATION IS RARE AND
MUCH NEEDED FOR SNOW PACK.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
208 AM PST SAT MAR 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LOW PRESSURE PATTERN BRINGING COOLING TO
THE AREA SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME...WITH BEST CHANCES FROM FRESNO COUNTY
AND NORTHWARD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA
BECOMING ELONGATED AND NARROWING AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE BIG
PACIFIC TROUGH IS INCREASING. FOR TODAY THE RIDGE WILL STILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE
INDICATOR OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN RESIDING WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS. BY TOMORROW THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND JUST CLIP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ALTHOUGH I DON`T THINK IT WILL RAIN, I HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH OTHER WEATHER
OFFICES. THE PROJECTED PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO FEATURE
A SERIES OF WET DISTURBANCES TAKING AIM ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AGAIN, THE MAIN POINT OF CONCERN IS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL DATA, I HAVE MADE JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO THE POP AND
WEATHER GRIDS WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF CALIF HAVING THE HIGHEST THREAT OF GETTING
WET. IF CURRENT MODEL DATA HOLDS TRUE, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT AS BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DRIVE A MUCH COLDER THROUGH DEEP INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO RATHER LOW
ELEVATIONS IS THE AMOUNT OF PROJECTED COLD AIR COMES TO FRUITION.ALL IN ALL IN THIS VERY DRY YEAR ANY PRECIPITATION IS RARE AND
MUCH NEEDED FOR SNOW PACK.
N
nicholasapp
Member
Sounds great! Thanks for the info!!! I'll take 3-5' of that wet
Heavy stuff and then 4-5' of that powdery pow pow!!
Heavy stuff and then 4-5' of that powdery pow pow!!
Best of all it is cold at the end (for this time of the year) ... so the rain does not wash the snow away.
very nice ... with winds under 10MPH!
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I think Don is getting excited 
I think Don is getting excited
Yes I am !
It is nice to see the probabilities of a dumping increase as the storm gets closer !
Where all the computer models increase the likelihood instead of decreasing the likelihood ... like they have for most of this season.
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I guess it is only fitting that winter will arrive just in time for Spring this year. Will it be Fall next Summer???
Here is the latest info….
The Dweebs have looked at all medium and long range guidance including the most recent 12z operational ECMWF which has at 500mb…a 240DM drop in heights Just South of Monterrey Bay between 12z Friday and 12z Sat. Then another 120DM drop over the following 24 hours…… That’s some serious height falls!! Thicknesses in the cold pool have to be in the 518s Can’t wait to see HP 500 temps in the upper low!! Snorkels anyone? or at least keep your CPAP high and working, if you plan on snow camping Saturday!
Now until we get to the weekend, we have some pretty wet unsettled weather to get through. A series of impulses will move through the pacific northwest and Northern California. The upper flow will become WSW natural to the sierra and so excellent orographics will be in play even though the upper jet dynamics remain well to our north. 700mb RH will vary between 50% and 90%. Monday through Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday 13-14 MAR seem the wettest for the first half of the week. CRFC puts a little over a half inch of QPF in Yosemite Valley between Tuesday AM and Wednesday AM. The same forecast time frame has the freezing Level at 7800 feet over Mammoth. Not too sure what to think about that though. (Seems low?) if not then several inches could fall at the Village Wednesday AM.
This mornings 12z GEM model actually has some UVM Wednesday morning for Mono County as a Vort center swings through…. Although the Town of Mammoth may not get into any serious snow until Friday…the upper mountain with good orographics and lots of HR at 700mb may get a foot+ Tuesday into Wednesday at Mammoth Lodge with the winds natural to the Sierra.
Then the excitement begins[/SIZE
More Later………………………….
The Dweeber……………………….
Here is the latest info….
The Dweebs have looked at all medium and long range guidance including the most recent 12z operational ECMWF which has at 500mb…a 240DM drop in heights Just South of Monterrey Bay between 12z Friday and 12z Sat. Then another 120DM drop over the following 24 hours…… That’s some serious height falls!! Thicknesses in the cold pool have to be in the 518s Can’t wait to see HP 500 temps in the upper low!! Snorkels anyone? or at least keep your CPAP high and working, if you plan on snow camping Saturday!
Now until we get to the weekend, we have some pretty wet unsettled weather to get through. A series of impulses will move through the pacific northwest and Northern California. The upper flow will become WSW natural to the sierra and so excellent orographics will be in play even though the upper jet dynamics remain well to our north. 700mb RH will vary between 50% and 90%. Monday through Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday 13-14 MAR seem the wettest for the first half of the week. CRFC puts a little over a half inch of QPF in Yosemite Valley between Tuesday AM and Wednesday AM. The same forecast time frame has the freezing Level at 7800 feet over Mammoth. Not too sure what to think about that though. (Seems low?) if not then several inches could fall at the Village Wednesday AM.
This mornings 12z GEM model actually has some UVM Wednesday morning for Mono County as a Vort center swings through…. Although the Town of Mammoth may not get into any serious snow until Friday…the upper mountain with good orographics and lots of HR at 700mb may get a foot+ Tuesday into Wednesday at Mammoth Lodge with the winds natural to the Sierra.
Then the excitement begins[/SIZE
….Friday 16 MAR as the upper long wave reloads with two powerhouse short waves that move into Central Ca then south to the Mexican border to give Los Angeles a wallop as well. The Weekend storm could drop 3 to 4 feet of Light fluffy powder at 8000 feet
……IE “Platinum Powder”More Later………………………….
The Dweeber……………………….
HERE IT COMES !!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
326 AM PDT MON MAR 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...
FOR MOST OF TODAY THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. GUSTS THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WHICH PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIP TO PARTS OF
NERN CA AND THE NRN SIERRA WHILE WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED ADVY
CRITERIA IN PARTS OF FAR WRN NV AND ERN LASSEN COUNTY. WHILE SOME
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THRU THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT AND ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF ERN
CA-WRN NV TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN NERN CA AND THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE,
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAHOE BASIN TUES NIGHT AND WED
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW EXPECTED. FOR WRN NV,
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
INCREASING FOR THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY AND MOST OF WRN NV NORTH
OF I-80 FOR LATE TUES NIGHT THRU WED MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD
REACH 0.25 INCH FOR RENO-CARSON CITY, WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE
IN THE WRN FOOTHILLS. FOR WINDS...WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVY TO INCLUDE THE RENO AND NERN
CA ZONE AFT 00Z THIS AFTN...THEN ADD THE W-CNTRL NV BASIN AND MONO
COUNTY STARTING 12Z TUES AM. FOR TAHOE WILL CARRY THE LAKE WIND
ADVY THRU 18Z TUES, THEN THE WS WATCH WILL TAKE OVER AND INCLUDE
MENTION OF WINDY CONDITIONS. 700 MB WINDS INC ERASE TO 60-70 KT
AFT 12Z TUESDAY FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD. THE ELEVATION OF THE STABLE
LAYER IS MORE VARIABLE ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH THE NAM
KEEPING THE BASE RATHER LOW NEAR 750 MB OVER RENO, WHILE THE GFS HAS
THE BASE BRIEFLY NEAR THE MORE FAVORABLE RIDGE LEVEL AROUND 700 MB
BTWN 06-12Z TUES THEN LOWERS IT TO NEAR 750 MB SIMILAR TO THE NAM
DURING THE DAY, BEFORE QUICKLY RAISING IT WELL ABOVE RIDGE LEVEL
LATE TUES AFTN. THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE IS FAR TO THE NORTH
THROUGHOUT THIS WIND EVENT. 30 MB AGL WINDS ON THE NAM ARE QUITE
STRONG AS EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA CREST BUR REMAIN MARGINAL OVER
THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF LOCAL
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH EARLY TUES AM OR BY MID AFTERNOON,
OVERALL THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY RESULT FROM
THIS STORM SYSTEM.
FOR PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS...THE TAHOE BASIN WILL REMAIN IN
THE WS WATCH BUT WILL RECONFIGURE IT TO INCLUDE ONLY AREAS ABOVE
7000 FT ON BOTH THE NV AND CA SIDE. WHILE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS
ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, THE CARSON RANGE
INCLUDING MOUNT ROSE SHOULD STILL SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW TUES NIGHT
AND WED MAINLY BTWN 06-18Z SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FOOT
OF SNOW. BELOW 7000 FT, SNOW COULD FALL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
BUT HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACCUMULATING ON PAVED SURFACES AS TEMPS
RISE THRU THE 30S AND EVEN ABOVE 40 DEGREES DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REACHES THE SIERRA.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
RISING -3 TO -4 C, RESULTING IN RAIN-SNOW MIX BECOMING MOSTLY RAIN
FROM 7000 FT DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL.
FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LASSEN COUNTY, A MORE DIRECT HIT FROM THE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED, RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW STARTING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THRU MOST
OF WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN YUBA PASS, THE IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
UNPOPULATED HIGH ELEVATIONS SO NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED. PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE HWY 89 CORRIDOR BTWN TRUCKEE AND QUINCY JUST FROM THE TUES-WED
SYSTEM ALONE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
FARTHER SOUTH FOR MONO COUNTY, PRECIP TOTALS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE CREST NORTH OF
TIOGA PASS. THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR A MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL OF HEAVY PRECIP. MJD
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE INCREASED WITH POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE MOISTURE PLUME AND SHORT WAVES/COLD FRONTS EJECTING
FROM THE THROUGH AND INTO SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. CONFIDENCE
HAS DECREASED IN TIMING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND 16-18MAR.
THE MAIN CAUSE FOR THE LOSS IN CONFIDENCE IS THE USUALLY RELIABLE
ECMWF. ONCE THE INITIAL SYSTEM PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE 00Z
ECMWF NEARLY CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE PLUME THURSDAY WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE
PRECIP FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY INTO
FRIDAY. THE NEXT SURGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE
ECMWF IS HELD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
AND FRONT REACH RENO-TAHOE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, 24 HOURS LATER
THAN YESTERDAY`S ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GFS HAS HELD ONTO ITS
TIMING FROM YESTERDAY`S SOLUTIONS, WITH THE FRONT REACHING
RENO-TAHOE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GFS CONSISTENCY HAVE NOT
CHANGED THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHEN THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IN THE
SIERRA AND 0.25-1.00 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. WITH LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 FEET OF SNOW IN THE SIERRA ABOVE 7000 FEET, WITH
15-25 INCHES BELOW 7000 FEET THIS WEEKEND 14-16 MAR. TODAY`S 00Z RUNS AGREE THE SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW 6000 FEET DURING THE TIME OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. SINCE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LOWER SNOW
LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEY FLOORS THIS WEEKEND IS HIGHER.
BEYOND SATURDAY, MODEL TIMING VARIES IN PUSHING ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR
THE MOIST PATTERN TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEK OF MARCH 18TH. BRONG
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
326 AM PDT MON MAR 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...
FOR MOST OF TODAY THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES WITH
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. GUSTS THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE
WHICH PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY BROUGHT LIGHT PRECIP TO PARTS OF
NERN CA AND THE NRN SIERRA WHILE WINDS BRIEFLY REACHED ADVY
CRITERIA IN PARTS OF FAR WRN NV AND ERN LASSEN COUNTY. WHILE SOME
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY THRU THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT AND ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF ERN
CA-WRN NV TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN NERN CA AND THE SIERRA CREST WEST OF TAHOE,
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAHOE BASIN TUES NIGHT AND WED
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW EXPECTED. FOR WRN NV,
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
INCREASING FOR THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY AND MOST OF WRN NV NORTH
OF I-80 FOR LATE TUES NIGHT THRU WED MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD
REACH 0.25 INCH FOR RENO-CARSON CITY, WITH 0.50 INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE
IN THE WRN FOOTHILLS. FOR WINDS...WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVY TO INCLUDE THE RENO AND NERN
CA ZONE AFT 00Z THIS AFTN...THEN ADD THE W-CNTRL NV BASIN AND MONO
COUNTY STARTING 12Z TUES AM. FOR TAHOE WILL CARRY THE LAKE WIND
ADVY THRU 18Z TUES, THEN THE WS WATCH WILL TAKE OVER AND INCLUDE
MENTION OF WINDY CONDITIONS. 700 MB WINDS INC ERASE TO 60-70 KT
AFT 12Z TUESDAY FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD. THE ELEVATION OF THE STABLE
LAYER IS MORE VARIABLE ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH THE NAM
KEEPING THE BASE RATHER LOW NEAR 750 MB OVER RENO, WHILE THE GFS HAS
THE BASE BRIEFLY NEAR THE MORE FAVORABLE RIDGE LEVEL AROUND 700 MB
BTWN 06-12Z TUES THEN LOWERS IT TO NEAR 750 MB SIMILAR TO THE NAM
DURING THE DAY, BEFORE QUICKLY RAISING IT WELL ABOVE RIDGE LEVEL
LATE TUES AFTN. THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE IS FAR TO THE NORTH
THROUGHOUT THIS WIND EVENT. 30 MB AGL WINDS ON THE NAM ARE QUITE
STRONG AS EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA CREST BUR REMAIN MARGINAL OVER
THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF LOCAL
WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH EARLY TUES AM OR BY MID AFTERNOON,
OVERALL THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY RESULT FROM
THIS STORM SYSTEM.
FOR PRECIPITATION AND SNOW LEVELS...THE TAHOE BASIN WILL REMAIN IN
THE WS WATCH BUT WILL RECONFIGURE IT TO INCLUDE ONLY AREAS ABOVE
7000 FT ON BOTH THE NV AND CA SIDE. WHILE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS
ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA CREST, THE CARSON RANGE
INCLUDING MOUNT ROSE SHOULD STILL SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW TUES NIGHT
AND WED MAINLY BTWN 06-18Z SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FOOT
OF SNOW. BELOW 7000 FT, SNOW COULD FALL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
BUT HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACCUMULATING ON PAVED SURFACES AS TEMPS
RISE THRU THE 30S AND EVEN ABOVE 40 DEGREES DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REACHES THE SIERRA.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH 700 MB TEMPS
RISING -3 TO -4 C, RESULTING IN RAIN-SNOW MIX BECOMING MOSTLY RAIN
FROM 7000 FT DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL.
FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LASSEN COUNTY, A MORE DIRECT HIT FROM THE
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED, RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW STARTING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THRU MOST
OF WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN YUBA PASS, THE IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
UNPOPULATED HIGH ELEVATIONS SO NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE
PLANNED. PROJECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE HWY 89 CORRIDOR BTWN TRUCKEE AND QUINCY JUST FROM THE TUES-WED
SYSTEM ALONE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
FARTHER SOUTH FOR MONO COUNTY, PRECIP TOTALS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE CREST NORTH OF
TIOGA PASS. THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR A MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL OF HEAVY PRECIP. MJD
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE INCREASED WITH POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE MOISTURE PLUME AND SHORT WAVES/COLD FRONTS EJECTING
FROM THE THROUGH AND INTO SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. CONFIDENCE
HAS DECREASED IN TIMING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW IN THE SIERRA AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND 16-18MAR.
THE MAIN CAUSE FOR THE LOSS IN CONFIDENCE IS THE USUALLY RELIABLE
ECMWF. ONCE THE INITIAL SYSTEM PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE 00Z
ECMWF NEARLY CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE PLUME THURSDAY WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE
PRECIP FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY INTO
FRIDAY. THE NEXT SURGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE
ECMWF IS HELD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SHORT WAVE
AND FRONT REACH RENO-TAHOE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, 24 HOURS LATER
THAN YESTERDAY`S ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GFS HAS HELD ONTO ITS
TIMING FROM YESTERDAY`S SOLUTIONS, WITH THE FRONT REACHING
RENO-TAHOE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GFS CONSISTENCY HAVE NOT
CHANGED THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHEN THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IN THE
SIERRA AND 0.25-1.00 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. WITH LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 FEET OF SNOW IN THE SIERRA ABOVE 7000 FEET, WITH
15-25 INCHES BELOW 7000 FEET THIS WEEKEND 14-16 MAR. TODAY`S 00Z RUNS AGREE THE SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW 6000 FEET DURING THE TIME OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. SINCE THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LOWER SNOW
LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEY FLOORS THIS WEEKEND IS HIGHER.
BEYOND SATURDAY, MODEL TIMING VARIES IN PUSHING ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR
THE MOIST PATTERN TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEK OF MARCH 18TH. BRONG
&&
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PDT MON MAR 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM FRESNO NORTH
BEGINNING TONIGHT...SPREADING SOUTH INTO KERN COUNTY POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY.&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...WITH A VORTICITY CENTER NEAR 46N/131W AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE ONTO THE COAST AROUND 12Z /0500 PDT/
TUESDAY. FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY /2300 PDT MONDAY/...THEN A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NORTH OF KERN
COUNTY DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
POPS NEAR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.THE 06Z NAM HAS A QPF OF 0.79 INCH FOR YOSEMITE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z
/1100 PDT/...WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS 0.86 INCH AND THE 00Z WRF HAS
MORE THAN DOUBLE THAT AMOUNT WITH 1.87 INCH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS
AT THIS TIME.
ONE CONCERN IS THE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST
TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS THE SALINAS-RENO SURFACE-PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REACH 7.94 MB BY 18Z TUESDAY AND BE 7.35 MB AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY /1700 PDT TUESDAY/. THE 06Z NAM HAS THE GRADIENT AT 8.99
MB AT 18Z TUESDAY...AND 9.42 MB AT 21Z /1400 PDT/ TUESDAY. THESE
GRADIENTS SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH OVER THE CREST. AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE MODELS FORECAST BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH THE
00Z GFS FORECASTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KTS AT MERCED BY 18Z
TUESDAY...AND THE 06Z NAM HAVING 22 KT SUSTAINED WINDS.
MODEL QPF HAS THE HIGHEST 6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE RFC GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 6 HOURS EARLIER. MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT
IS CURRENTLY 4TH PERIOD AND QPF THAT FAR OUT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGHS DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO KERN COUNTY. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...WITH CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...AND 50S THROUGHOUT THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
SUNDAY.THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS HAD A SHARP TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO/S SACRAMENTO AND MONTEREY...ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR SUNDAY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS
TROUGH...SO COULD SEE THUNDER EARLIER IF THIS RUN IS CORRECT.
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PDT MON MAR 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM FRESNO NORTH
BEGINNING TONIGHT...SPREADING SOUTH INTO KERN COUNTY POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY.&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...WITH A VORTICITY CENTER NEAR 46N/131W AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE ONTO THE COAST AROUND 12Z /0500 PDT/
TUESDAY. FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY /2300 PDT MONDAY/...THEN A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NORTH OF KERN
COUNTY DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
POPS NEAR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.THE 06Z NAM HAS A QPF OF 0.79 INCH FOR YOSEMITE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z
/1100 PDT/...WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS 0.86 INCH AND THE 00Z WRF HAS
MORE THAN DOUBLE THAT AMOUNT WITH 1.87 INCH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS
AT THIS TIME.
ONE CONCERN IS THE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA CREST
TUESDAY. THE 00Z GFS FORECASTS THE SALINAS-RENO SURFACE-PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REACH 7.94 MB BY 18Z TUESDAY AND BE 7.35 MB AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY /1700 PDT TUESDAY/. THE 06Z NAM HAS THE GRADIENT AT 8.99
MB AT 18Z TUESDAY...AND 9.42 MB AT 21Z /1400 PDT/ TUESDAY. THESE
GRADIENTS SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH OVER THE CREST. AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE MODELS FORECAST BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH THE
00Z GFS FORECASTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KTS AT MERCED BY 18Z
TUESDAY...AND THE 06Z NAM HAVING 22 KT SUSTAINED WINDS.
MODEL QPF HAS THE HIGHEST 6-HOUR PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE RFC GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 6 HOURS EARLIER. MAY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT
IS CURRENTLY 4TH PERIOD AND QPF THAT FAR OUT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGHS DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO KERN COUNTY. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...WITH CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE 50S...AND 50S THROUGHOUT THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
SUNDAY.THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS HAD A SHARP TROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO/S SACRAMENTO AND MONTEREY...ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS FOR SUNDAY. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS
TROUGH...SO COULD SEE THUNDER EARLIER IF THIS RUN IS CORRECT.
&&
I remember some big dumps in late March and in April,like seperate storms of easy 2-3 ft. Barely anybody rideing cause they're at home doing Spring things.
Ya last year we had 200% of the average.. right now we are at 40-45% percent of normal.
Radar shows SHASTA has been snowing all day 12 MAR
Storm on track
Raining/snowing in Shasta since Monday
Same for Truckee / Tahoe area 3 plus inches water from Shasta to Tahoe since Monday
STORM TO ENGULF ENTIRE SIERRA NEVADA BY SUNSET FRIDAY 16 MARCH AND NOT STOP TILL SUNDAY MORNING 16-18MAR
Center of storm (lowest pressure) start at San Francisco and go thru KINGS CANYON
Jet stream expected to dip into Mexico !
Major dumping late Saturday into Sunday morning south of Mammoth
Major dumping north of Mammoth late Friday Sat morning.
COLDEST part of storm is SAT-SUN and levels dependson when the cold front meets the moisture.
On Sunday morning expect up to 4 inches at 3000 feet from Los Angeles to Susanville.
Expect 1-2 feet at 5000-7000 feet Sunday at Sunrise
Expect 3-6 feet ontop of what we have now at 8500-9000 feet.
Snow will be very heavy.
Temps will stay low till Tuesday and then heat up a little 10F from Sunday
Raining/snowing in Shasta since Monday
Same for Truckee / Tahoe area 3 plus inches water from Shasta to Tahoe since Monday
STORM TO ENGULF ENTIRE SIERRA NEVADA BY SUNSET FRIDAY 16 MARCH AND NOT STOP TILL SUNDAY MORNING 16-18MAR
Center of storm (lowest pressure) start at San Francisco and go thru KINGS CANYON
Jet stream expected to dip into Mexico !
Major dumping late Saturday into Sunday morning south of Mammoth
Major dumping north of Mammoth late Friday Sat morning.
COLDEST part of storm is SAT-SUN and levels dependson when the cold front meets the moisture.
On Sunday morning expect up to 4 inches at 3000 feet from Los Angeles to Susanville.
Expect 1-2 feet at 5000-7000 feet Sunday at Sunrise
Expect 3-6 feet ontop of what we have now at 8500-9000 feet.
Snow will be very heavy.
Temps will stay low till Tuesday and then heat up a little 10F from Sunday
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