N
Nikolai
ACCOUNT CLOSED
Be careful this weekend, avy conditions sounds horrible.
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MOUNTAIN WEATHER ROUND UP FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS
-General Weather Observations-
Temps have decreased at all weather stations (except the DOT station at Turnagain) from Summit to Girdwood by 1-6 degrees. Winds at all ridgetop weather stations have been light and variable. There has been zero to a trace of precip in the area.
-The DOT weather station near the crest the highway at Turnagain Pass at 1000 feet-
Is recording a temp of 35 degrees (3 degrees warmer than yesterday) with calm winds.
-The NRCS Center Ridge weather station at 1800 feet in Turnagain Pass-
Has a temp of 25 degrees (3 degrees colder than yesterday). Zero inches of water and zero inches of new snow has been recorded. Total snowpack depth is 69".
-The Sunburst weather station at 3800 feet in Turnagain Pass-
Shows a temperature of 22 degrees (1 degrees colder than yesterday). Winds have been light and variable averaging 1-6mph mph with a max gust of 14mph.
-Surface Analysis Maps-
Between 3am and 9pm yesterday....There has not been very much going on above us or near us. The big story is out in the Bering Sea once again. I'm kind of getting tired of the Bering Sea taking all our storms this year. Anyway, there is a large storm out there that is still building (982-961mb). This storm is pulling a huge arm of moisture up from the south, but the precip forecasts only call for .1 inch of water for our area in the next 24-48 hours.
-Radar-
Nothing going on for us. All the precip is on the west coast of Alaska.
AVALANCHE HAZARDS
Primary avalanche concerns
-Upside down surface slabs on slippery bed surface on alpine slopes above 3000 feet
-Upside down surface slabs on top of rain crust below 3000 feet. (Avalanches have been common and widespread on this lower elevation instability. Be very careful in Placer Valley and lower Seattle Creek)
AVALANCHE AND SNOWPACK
Bottom Line
Extra Caution is advised today. There are pockets of considerable avalanche hazard. The conditions right now are the types of conditions when many people get killed in avalanches because human perceptions and overconfidence in the snow pack intersects with the reality of a problematic snowpack.
Discussion
In the avalanche world, people talk about "tipping the balance" when there is enough weight added above a weak layer to create avalanches. That balance was tipped in the Girdwood Valley over the weekend, and this balance is starting to tip in Placer River Valley and Turnagain Pass.
When we talk about inches of water, we are really talking about how much new weight has been added to the snowpack. This is like adding weight onto a balance scale.
Listed below is a round-up of new water weight since the mid-January hurricane left behind those slippery bed surfaces from ridgetops to sea-level.
Girdwood Valley: ~4 inches H2O
Grandview (Near Placer Valley): ~2-2.5 inches H2O
Turnagain Pass: ~1-2 inches H2O
Summit Lake: ~1 inch H2O
Alyeska Ski Patrol triggered lots of avalanches over the weekend, and we should use this information as an indicator of what to expect in places like Placer Valley and Turnagain Pass after more weight is added to those areas. An area on Alyeska's North Face called the "Monies" was shot with artillery yesterday. That area has many characteristics of a backcountry snowpack right now, and it ripped out wall to wall with big avalanches during yesterday's howitzer work.
Based on the water weight above, I'd guess that Placer is next on this list for big avalanches. Be very careful on the lower steep slopes out there.
Many of the avalanches triggered by Patrol failed on the rain crust below 3000 feet on skier compacted slopes. Above 3000 feet, the upside down surface snow zippered with big propogation. A lot of these avalanches failed on slabs near rock bands.
If you think Turnagain Pass has enough skier/snowmachine compaction to reduce the avalanche hazard on those slippery bed surfaces, I think you are wrong. Those slippery bed surfaces are very strong and compaction might just be creating more of a slab on top of those weak layers. We need to be very careful today and especially when the next storm hits us.
We saw natural avalanches on Wolverine, Eddies, and Tincan yesterday that probably occured on Monday. These were on south, west, and northern aspects at about 2500 feet. Natural avalanches are a sure sign of the begining of tipping the balance at Turnagain Pass. We got a report of a remotely triggered avalanche near Silvertip Creek on the southern end of Turnagain Pass that happened on Monday. Serveral folks have reported lots of collapsing and "whumping" on the lower slopes of Eddies. Yesterday, we were able to trigger surface slabs on steep rollovers on Tincan.
Turnagain Pass is like Mt. Redoubt right now. We are watching in 24/7 just waiting for it to erupt, and its showing signs of elevated unrest.
Some well respected avalanche folks and avid backcountry skiers have been saying things like...
-"This is the most tender I've ever seen the backcountry."
-"The rain crust is the most reactive I've seen it all year."
-"We've triggered avalanches 12 out of the last 12 days we've been out."
-"WOW that was big"
Safe terrain management is essential today.
------------------------------------------
MOUNTAIN WEATHER ROUND UP FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS
-General Weather Observations-
Temps have decreased at all weather stations (except the DOT station at Turnagain) from Summit to Girdwood by 1-6 degrees. Winds at all ridgetop weather stations have been light and variable. There has been zero to a trace of precip in the area.
-The DOT weather station near the crest the highway at Turnagain Pass at 1000 feet-
Is recording a temp of 35 degrees (3 degrees warmer than yesterday) with calm winds.
-The NRCS Center Ridge weather station at 1800 feet in Turnagain Pass-
Has a temp of 25 degrees (3 degrees colder than yesterday). Zero inches of water and zero inches of new snow has been recorded. Total snowpack depth is 69".
-The Sunburst weather station at 3800 feet in Turnagain Pass-
Shows a temperature of 22 degrees (1 degrees colder than yesterday). Winds have been light and variable averaging 1-6mph mph with a max gust of 14mph.
-Surface Analysis Maps-
Between 3am and 9pm yesterday....There has not been very much going on above us or near us. The big story is out in the Bering Sea once again. I'm kind of getting tired of the Bering Sea taking all our storms this year. Anyway, there is a large storm out there that is still building (982-961mb). This storm is pulling a huge arm of moisture up from the south, but the precip forecasts only call for .1 inch of water for our area in the next 24-48 hours.
-Radar-
Nothing going on for us. All the precip is on the west coast of Alaska.
AVALANCHE HAZARDS
Primary avalanche concerns
-Upside down surface slabs on slippery bed surface on alpine slopes above 3000 feet
-Upside down surface slabs on top of rain crust below 3000 feet. (Avalanches have been common and widespread on this lower elevation instability. Be very careful in Placer Valley and lower Seattle Creek)
AVALANCHE AND SNOWPACK
Bottom Line
Extra Caution is advised today. There are pockets of considerable avalanche hazard. The conditions right now are the types of conditions when many people get killed in avalanches because human perceptions and overconfidence in the snow pack intersects with the reality of a problematic snowpack.
Discussion
In the avalanche world, people talk about "tipping the balance" when there is enough weight added above a weak layer to create avalanches. That balance was tipped in the Girdwood Valley over the weekend, and this balance is starting to tip in Placer River Valley and Turnagain Pass.
When we talk about inches of water, we are really talking about how much new weight has been added to the snowpack. This is like adding weight onto a balance scale.
Listed below is a round-up of new water weight since the mid-January hurricane left behind those slippery bed surfaces from ridgetops to sea-level.
Girdwood Valley: ~4 inches H2O
Grandview (Near Placer Valley): ~2-2.5 inches H2O
Turnagain Pass: ~1-2 inches H2O
Summit Lake: ~1 inch H2O
Alyeska Ski Patrol triggered lots of avalanches over the weekend, and we should use this information as an indicator of what to expect in places like Placer Valley and Turnagain Pass after more weight is added to those areas. An area on Alyeska's North Face called the "Monies" was shot with artillery yesterday. That area has many characteristics of a backcountry snowpack right now, and it ripped out wall to wall with big avalanches during yesterday's howitzer work.
Based on the water weight above, I'd guess that Placer is next on this list for big avalanches. Be very careful on the lower steep slopes out there.
Many of the avalanches triggered by Patrol failed on the rain crust below 3000 feet on skier compacted slopes. Above 3000 feet, the upside down surface snow zippered with big propogation. A lot of these avalanches failed on slabs near rock bands.
If you think Turnagain Pass has enough skier/snowmachine compaction to reduce the avalanche hazard on those slippery bed surfaces, I think you are wrong. Those slippery bed surfaces are very strong and compaction might just be creating more of a slab on top of those weak layers. We need to be very careful today and especially when the next storm hits us.
We saw natural avalanches on Wolverine, Eddies, and Tincan yesterday that probably occured on Monday. These were on south, west, and northern aspects at about 2500 feet. Natural avalanches are a sure sign of the begining of tipping the balance at Turnagain Pass. We got a report of a remotely triggered avalanche near Silvertip Creek on the southern end of Turnagain Pass that happened on Monday. Serveral folks have reported lots of collapsing and "whumping" on the lower slopes of Eddies. Yesterday, we were able to trigger surface slabs on steep rollovers on Tincan.
Turnagain Pass is like Mt. Redoubt right now. We are watching in 24/7 just waiting for it to erupt, and its showing signs of elevated unrest.
Some well respected avalanche folks and avid backcountry skiers have been saying things like...
-"This is the most tender I've ever seen the backcountry."
-"The rain crust is the most reactive I've seen it all year."
-"We've triggered avalanches 12 out of the last 12 days we've been out."
-"WOW that was big"
Safe terrain management is essential today.
