***AVY DANGER IS HIGH!! ***

[modsledr]

Avy danger on EAST facing slopes is HIGH.

All other areas are CONSIDERABLE.

http://www.nwac.us/

Be careful out there...use your head...dont let peer pressure force you into a bad situation...come home alive, not in a body bag!!

 

[ApeSh*tBananas]

avy Danger

It is particularly high in mount Vernon where theres over a foot a fresh on pavement not a good bond! What i Wouldn't give to go snowmobile Eaglemont golf course right now That course has some good climbs. But on the other note avy danger is high so everone should STAY AWAY from the mountains.

 

[rmk2112]

Everyone be extra careful out there this weekend

FYI to everyone who hasn't seen or used it. We have a link in the stickies at the top of the forum for weather and avy info.

[url=http://www.snowestonline.com/forum/showthread.php?t=208326]Weather Forecasts/Conditions - Avalanche Info - Wilderness Boundries [/url]

 

[Midwest_Cat]

either today or saturday will be the two days to go out...sunday is a negative...

saturday:

sunday:

Saturday and Saturday night: Considerable danger above 4000 feet and moderate below early Saturday increasing mid-late Saturday and becoming high above 6000 feet and considerable below. Greatest danger shifting onto higher elevation east to southeast exposures.


Sunday and Sunday night: Further substantially increasing avalanche danger expected Sunday, becoming high to extreme below 7000 feet. Natural and human triggered avalanches are certain and avalanche terrain should be avoided


Report is for the snoqualmie area:
http://www.nwac.us/forecast/avalanche/current/zone/3/

 

[modsledr]

Please keep in mind...more people die when the conditions are Considerable and Moderate than any other...

Considerable = Natural Avalanches Possible; Human Triggered Avalanches LIKELY!!!

EVERYWHERE ABOVE 3-4000 FT IS CONSIDERABLE ON SATURDAY.

BE SMART!!

either today or saturday will be the two days to go out...sunday is a negative...

saturday:

sunday:

Saturday and Saturday night: Considerable danger above 4000 feet and moderate below early Saturday increasing mid-late Saturday and becoming high above 6000 feet and considerable below. Greatest danger shifting onto higher elevation east to southeast exposures.


Sunday and Sunday night: Further substantially increasing avalanche danger expected Sunday, becoming high to extreme below 7000 feet. Natural and human triggered avalanches are certain and avalanche terrain should be avoided


Report is for the snoqualmie area:
http://www.nwac.us/forecast/avalanche/current/zone/3/

 

[Van Epps]

Sunday... wow. What is causing that extreme swing in the pack stability?

 

[modsledr]

Sunday... wow. What is causing that extreme swing in the pack stability?

new wind driven snow pack on top of icy layer, followed by warming temps Sunday...

but this is a rhetorical question, right? because you've been reading the NWAC Avy forecast daily and have been following the trend, RIGHT??!!

 

[Van Epps]

...

 

[Van Epps]

new wind driven snow pack on top of icy layer, followed by warming temps Sunday...

but this is a rhetorical question, right? because you've been reading the NWAC Avy forecast daily and have been following the trend, RIGHT??!!

RIGHT!! Latest avy info... I don't leave home without it!

Not a rhetorical question though ... forecast doesn't give much detailed info more that 48hrs in advance.

 

[H20SKE]

RIGHT!! Latest avy info... I don't leave home without it!

Not a rhetorical question though ... forecast doesn't give much detailed info more that 48hrs in advance.

Ya--but they give weather 7 days out and cannot get it right 2 days out---avy center has to be buddy---LOL

 

[modsledr]

the diff is that the avy forecast is not just weather...it is snow geeks getting out and doing the legwork so we dont have to. PLUS taking in field reports from ski areas, industry professionals, forest service, etc...on actual conditions and avalanche observations.

Weather is unpredictable...that's part of the reason you only get 2 or 3 days at a time...that is all that the weather prediction, the snow conditions trend, and observation will allow to be accurate.

 

[raytech]

Newbie to sledding this year

Was thinking of riding Crystal Springs tomorrow pretty much sticking to the roads learning the ropes. Can any of you help me out with how the avy warnings play into those plans? Like I said, new to this just looking for some knowledge. I appreciate any advice. Thanks.

 

[MVR]

Sunday outlook

Below is the text from the forecast for Sunday (for the east slopes of the Cascades). It gives a fairly good explanation of what is causing this event. Make sure you are reading the snow pack synopsis in the bulletin...it's where you will track the trends. The danger rose is more useful for a daily outlook. I'm glad to see this post...all great discussion.

Sunday Outlook
The expected combination of strong winds, moderate to heavy snow and slight warming on Sunday should produce a very dramatic and substantial increase in the danger as higher density wind driven snow is deposited over and loads an abundance of weak layers including very low density snow, surface hoar and facets, all over an old crust. As a result, the danger should become generally high along the Cascade east slopes. Very sensitive and increasingly large slabs should become likely on Sunday, with some possibly involving most or all of the snow that lies over a crust region that developed in mid-late January (the MLK crust) and was reinforced by several lighter rain episodes in early to mid February. Remotely and sympathetically triggered avalanches should be expected along with extensive fracture propagation, shooting cracks and widespread collapsing or whumpfing of the very weak underlying snowpack structure. Whether skier or boarder, rider or snowshoer, hiker or climber, back country travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended on Sunday

 

[modsledr]

raytech,

you dont mention whether you are riding solo or in a group...I will assume in a group since riding solo in the mountains is insane.

With the unusually unstable conditions, if you get off the road stick to VERY low angle slopes and meadows, and pay attention to what is above you. Low angle slopes that increase to higher angles as the elevation goes up put you at risk.

Only one rider on the slope at a time...hopefully you have the proper safety gear and have practiced using it!!

Here is a link to the next Avalanche Awareness Class:

ASAP Avy Class

 

[raytech]

modsldr, absolutely riding with a couple of friends. I appreciate your insight and taking the time to respond. Have a great weekend.