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Avalanche Slope Stable 95% of Time

J

jbsleds

Well-known member
In the thread on the Meeker avy, a forum member told us about loosing his friend this year in an avy. He mentioned that they had been climbing the same slope for years without incident.

It reminded me of something I read in "Staying Alive" by Tremper. Here's the quote: "I think one of the major contributing factors is know as 'positive reinforcement'. You go into avalanche terrain, nothing happens. You go out again and again and again; still no avalanches. Yes, there's nothing like success! But here's the critical fact: from my experience, any particular avalanche slope is stable 95% of the time. So, if you know nothing about avalanches, you get a 19 out of 20 times success rate."
 
On saturday I watched these guys highmark under a wind loaded cornice over and over again. Avy danger was listed as "high" on wind loaded slopes. They had complete disregard to the danger, and I'd be willing to bet a paycheck they never checked the Avy forecast, or even knew how to check it. And, of course, it didn't slide. Thank God. But one day stupidity will cost them dearly, sad to say. The law of averages catches up eventually.
 
On saturday I watched these guys highmark under a wind loaded cornice over and over again. Avy danger was listed as "high" on wind loaded slopes. They had complete disregard to the danger, and I'd be willing to bet a paycheck they never checked the Avy forecast, or even knew how to check it. And, of course, it didn't slide. Thank God. But one day stupidity will cost them dearly, sad to say. The law of averages catches up eventually.


Boy isn't this the truth. I preach avy, avy ,avy awareness any time a snowflake falls and I know plenty of people are thinking..."what the hell do you know you've never been in an avalanche". I's funny that some of the crowd out there does not give you an ear if your not up high marking them, as if being able to ride super steep slopes makes a person more avalanche aware or better equipped to rescue someone once the avalanche occurs.
 
Boy isn't this the truth. I preach avy, avy ,avy awareness any time a snowflake falls and I know plenty of people are thinking..."what the hell do you know you've never been in an avalanche". I's funny that some of the crowd out there does not give you an ear if your not up high marking them, as if being able to ride super steep slopes makes a person more avalanche aware or better equipped to rescue someone once the avalanche occurs.

I'd listen more to someone who hasn't been in one!
 
Boy isn't this the truth. I preach avy, avy ,avy awareness any time a snowflake falls and I know plenty of people are thinking..."what the hell do you know you've never been in an avalanche". I's funny that some of the crowd out there does not give you an ear if your not up high marking them, as if being able to ride super steep slopes makes a person more avalanche aware or better equipped to rescue someone once the avalanche occurs.

Agreed. I've noticed that often in groups one alpha male dude will always assign himself as the know-it-all group leader. Everybody follows them usually beacause they know the area, have the most horsepower, or whatever other BS. But if that guy is too cocky to pay attention to avy conditions he's putting all of his friends at risk. I've experienced this about a million times. The know-it-all guys RARELY EVER have a clue about avy awareness.
 
We have seen it go a step further where the alpha male/loudest mouth in the group openly declares the avy professionals as "pencil pushing desk jockeys who don't know our terrain". Obviously, the view point of one narrow minded individual.
As educators, this is the hardest battle to win. We have all seen word of mouth used as a very powerful advertising tool. A well known personality in a particular region can use their considerable influence to deliver a particular message...productive or counter productive. This is one example of the negative effects of the "Expert halo" that is discussed at length in human factor lectures...to place an unqualified person in charge of planning, preparation, travel techniques, etc. Followers in a group whether inexperienced or not inclined to make decisions may place this expert halo on a non deserving member of their group/community...or this "expert" may take it upon his/herself to be the one. Strong, loud, confrontational, type A personalities can easily become this person.
One example that I have been party to has been leading a particular riding group (30+ riders in a formal club) down a road of zero avy training. He has taken the stance that any avy training that is worth anything will not take more than a couple of hours to deliver in a quick classroom session. And that he would gladly deliver his version over hotdogs on the trail. This person has himself had zero training. This extreme case is an example of how dangerous these people can be. Picture the young/innocent riders who are directed unwittingly by friend or family to join the club to "learn the ropes" of riding...these new riders will not only be stunted for the rest of their riding days, they will also become part of the problem that we as educators face...resistant to learn the real thing.

Our best option is to use the real expert riders to spread the word about the importance of being trained. A true expert who is fully trained and aware of the issues is a powerful tool in the world of avy education, there is nothing better at this time. As educated people who know the difference, we need to work around the untrained "experts" to pluck the followers out of their groups. Then get them into classes that will show them what the hazards actually are. Show them how little they (and their riding partners) actually know compared to what there is to know. Show them what would happen if they had to do a rescue right now, this very instant. Would they have a multiple burial situation due to putting multiple riders on the slope at a time? Would they be totally solid with beacons and probes so that digging would start asap? Do they understand that after prevention, decreasing burial time is the key to survival? This list of questions can go on and on as many of us know...the point is that until people get educated, they have NO IDEA that these considerations even exist. They don't even view avy terrain or the back country as a high risk environment.
We need to use word of mouth ourselves, ours needs to be louder and more wide spread than that of the non avy trained! ((shakes fist in air while standing on soapbox)) :face-icon-small-hap
 
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^^^ Excellent post!!

This is a trouble area....the the people being led astray by one (or more) of these types. This is exactly the group that we have trouble reaching because of them following along. Then their children/friends/new riders all get led down the wrong path as well. These are the very toughest to reach.

"So and so has been riding in the mountains for x number of years." That doesn't mean squat.

That is why we have a push here to try to reach kids. We want all to learn, but if we can catch the kids before they are led astray, we can make great strides on narrowing up the gap.

We need to use word of mouth ourselves, ours needs to be louder and more wide spread than that of the non avy trained! ((shakes fist in air while standing on soapbox)) :face-icon-small-hap

Amen to this!! ^^^
 
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