Another storm system next weekend ????

[donbrown]

Big storm likely starting 5-7 February. Maybe like storm 22-25 January. Initially rain at 7000 the then snow dump at end of storm below 7000.

Mammoth expects another 4 feet? Then multiple little storms after 10 February.

Friday, January 30, 2009 3:14:16 PM

FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT AGAIN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK SO WE ARE A GO FOR ANOTHER WET STORM WITH INITIALLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS...AND RAIN IN TOWN.

IN FACT, SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE DEJA VU FROM LAST WEEK. I WONDER IF WELL SEE ANOTHER 4 FEET? THE STORM IS ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT GETS PINCHED OFF...SPENDS A BIT OF TIME OFF SHORE TAPPING INTO WHAT EVER IT CAN FROM THE SUBTROPICS...THEN GETS THE BOOT INTO CALIFORNIA. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS....LIKE WILL THIS SYSTEM GET KICKED IN FROM THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM LIKE LAST WEEK...OR WILL IT GET ABSORBED
BY THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM....OR, WILL THERE BE AN EXTRA SHORT WAVE LIKE THE LAST TIME?

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT APPARENTLY, THE PV OVER AK WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE BEYOND THE NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLES....IT RETROGRADES BACK OVER ASIA BY THE 9TH/10TH. THE GFS ENSEMBLES FROM 00Z FRIDAY WANT TO SET UP ANOTHER COLD PATTERN IN THE LONGER RANGE WITH WEST COAST SLIDERS AFFECTING CALIFORNIA....WILL SEE!!

FRIDAY AM UPDATE:

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PRETTY MUCH IN SYNC IN BRINGING IS ANOTHER MID LATITUDE SYSTEM MOVING IN THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH FRIDAY'S OOZ EC AND 00Z GFS HAS A FAIRLY DECENT SYSTEM FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. SNOW LEVELS LIKE THE LAST ONE WILL BEGIN PRETTY HIGH. THE DWEEBS WILL TRACK THE PWS NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE SUBTROPICAL ENTRAINMENT.....AS THE EC IS POTENTIALLY WETTER THEN THE GFS BECAUSE OF ITS CONFIGURATION. AT THE MOMENT THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION.

IN THE MEANTIME A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE THE SIERRA CREST A BREAK TODAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN REBUILDS AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEKEND FOR MORE SIERRA CREST NE WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEXT MONDAY AT THE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE SIERRA AGAIN.

GO STEELERS!!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

THE DWEEBER
__________________
SYNTHETIC GREASE $2 a pound !!!!

 

[donbrown]

Many storms likely in the next 30 days starting 5 February. 5-8 February storm will be larger from central coast going south.

Dweeb Report :
Sunday, February 01, 2009 9:27:07 AM

SUPER SUNDAY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH BEAUTIFUL WX TODAY AND RIDGE TOP GUSTS TO 60MPH.....MAMMOTH MARMOT SEES A HUGE SHADOW ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT IS OVER HEAD....6 MORE WEEKS OF WINTER IS A GIVEN WITH A POTENTIALLY "VERY WET" PERIOD COMING ABOUT MID MONTH"

1. LITTLE SENSIBLE DIFFERENCES WEATHER WISE IN TOWN TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S.
2. AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OFF SHORE TODAY...A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS CONFINED TO AREAS LIKE THE LIP OF THE CREST. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY IN MAMMOTH ON SUNDAY.
3. UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES OVER THE TOP OF CALIFORNIA MONDAY FOR MORE FRIDAY LIKE WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CREST.
4. THEN FAIR AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT CLOSED LOW OR CUT-OFF WEATHER MAKER TO EFFECT CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. POTENTIALLY....ALTHOUGH ALL OF CALIFORNIA WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION....THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

INTER SEASONAL:

ED BERRYS LATEST DISCUSSION WAS QUITE INTERESTING FRIDAY. HE CHATTED ABOUT THE RELOADING OF LA NINA AND THE SSW IN PROGRESS. THE SSW IS A STRATOSPHERIC WARMING PHENOMENON WHEREBY LARGE ANOMALIES OF ZONAL MEAN EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PROPAGATING DOWNWARD INTO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC HIGH LATTS.

ED STATES THAT ON A LARGE SCALE, A POSSIBLE REGIONAL-SCALE RESPONSE IS FOR THE CURRENT BLOCKING OVER SCANDINAVIA TO RETROGRADE "OR BACK UP" OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND CANADA, THEN INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.

A BLOCK THAT MOVES IN THAT FASHION WOULD SUPPRESS THE POLAR JET WELL TO THE SOUTH...THUS POSSIBLY FORCING THE JET TO ENTER THE CONUS THROUGH CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THEN ON THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. IF THIS DEVELOPS, WE COULD BE IN FOR QUITE A WET PATTERN FOR A FEW WEEKS. THE DWEEBS WILL KNOW MORE LATER NEXT WEEK.

DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS..............