Don Brown you out there? The GFSx 10 day forecast looks promising again for Cal. Let's hope it holds 
A Chance of Snow back in the Forecast -
- Thread starter CatHill
- Start date
I am here ... watching sled DVDs !!!
Yep ... was trying to see if not posting would work !!!
The two weather forecasting models are both saying now for the past 5 days a wet pattern will occur 18 January till the end of the month .... AND LONGER !!! (this is the longest they have been in agreement since October)
SNOW LEVELS UNKNOWN
Mammoth weather is saying to go up and drive your car over TIOGA Pass and get a couple pics cause he prays this type of January will not happen for the next 128 years.
What I found funny about this week was the Los Angeles weather guys reported it snowed over a foot in 72 hours in downtown Los Angeles 50 years ago.
Yep ... was trying to see if not posting would work !!!
The two weather forecasting models are both saying now for the past 5 days a wet pattern will occur 18 January till the end of the month .... AND LONGER !!! (this is the longest they have been in agreement since October)
SNOW LEVELS UNKNOWN
Mammoth weather is saying to go up and drive your car over TIOGA Pass and get a couple pics cause he prays this type of January will not happen for the next 128 years.
What I found funny about this week was the Los Angeles weather guys reported it snowed over a foot in 72 hours in downtown Los Angeles 50 years ago.
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Yeah, This is the best for "snow" long range forecast we have seen since November. I like this quote from "Snowforecast.com" up on Kirkwood Ski Resort's site today:
Long range forecast / discussion...January 18 to 21
--We expect to see a ridge of high pressure across western Alaska, with an undercutting jet stream and long fetch of Pacific moisture pushing into the Sierra Nevada (the Pacific fire-hose as some have called it). When this happens we expect to see wet Pacific storms into the Sierra Nevada with close-call snow levels (relatively mild air due to the source region off the milder mid Pacific Ocean waters), for 2-3 days (Thursday 19th into Saturday the 21st). This wetter scenario is expected to help balance out the dry patterns we have seen so far this winter. This could set up a very good base of heavy dense snow pack mainly above 6,000 feet (could easily be multiple feet but we will need to watch) and a lot of water (what we wanted to see in November and December). The 2-3 days of wet snow and possible 7,000+ foot snow levels could be finished by 1-2 days (Sat/ Sun~21-22 Jan) of colder and less dense, but still heavy snowfall, again possibly multiple feet (will need to watch). It is possible that the arctic push/ front and storm track end up a bit further south or north (we are pulling for further south/ colder), in which case we will have to adjust snow levels and snowfall, but either way, the snowfall is expected to come, and be heavy. After a possible 5+ day break with high pressure ridging (sorry, I will watch my language) and mostly sunny skies, we enter late January/ February with more snow storms possible. We are watching closely.
I got my fingers and skis crossed
Come on just a little boondockn'g is that too much to ask?
...
Long range forecast / discussion...January 18 to 21
--We expect to see a ridge of high pressure across western Alaska, with an undercutting jet stream and long fetch of Pacific moisture pushing into the Sierra Nevada (the Pacific fire-hose as some have called it). When this happens we expect to see wet Pacific storms into the Sierra Nevada with close-call snow levels (relatively mild air due to the source region off the milder mid Pacific Ocean waters), for 2-3 days (Thursday 19th into Saturday the 21st). This wetter scenario is expected to help balance out the dry patterns we have seen so far this winter. This could set up a very good base of heavy dense snow pack mainly above 6,000 feet (could easily be multiple feet but we will need to watch) and a lot of water (what we wanted to see in November and December). The 2-3 days of wet snow and possible 7,000+ foot snow levels could be finished by 1-2 days (Sat/ Sun~21-22 Jan) of colder and less dense, but still heavy snowfall, again possibly multiple feet (will need to watch). It is possible that the arctic push/ front and storm track end up a bit further south or north (we are pulling for further south/ colder), in which case we will have to adjust snow levels and snowfall, but either way, the snowfall is expected to come, and be heavy. After a possible 5+ day break with high pressure ridging (sorry, I will watch my language) and mostly sunny skies, we enter late January/ February with more snow storms possible. We are watching closely.
I got my fingers and skis crossed
Come on just a little boondockn'g is that too much to ask?
...
Yeah, This is the best for "snow" long range forecast we have seen since November. I like this quote from "Snowforecast.com" up on Kirkwood Ski Resort's site today:
Long range forecast / discussion...January 18 to 21
--We expect to see a ridge of high pressure across western Alaska, with an undercutting jet stream and long fetch of Pacific moisture pushing into the Sierra Nevada (the Pacific fire-hose as some have called it). When this happens we expect to see wet Pacific storms into the Sierra Nevada with close-call snow levels (relatively mild air due to the source region off the milder mid Pacific Ocean waters), for 2-3 days (Thursday 19th into Saturday the 21st). This wetter scenario is expected to help balance out the dry patterns we have seen so far this winter. This could set up a very good base of heavy dense snow pack mainly above 6,000 feet (could easily be multiple feet but we will need to watch) and a lot of water (what we wanted to see in November and December). The 2-3 days of wet snow and possible 7,000+ foot snow levels could be finished by 1-2 days (Sat/ Sun~21-22 Jan) of colder and less dense, but still heavy snowfall, again possibly multiple feet (will need to watch). It is possible that the arctic push/ front and storm track end up a bit further south or north (we are pulling for further south/ colder), in which case we will have to adjust snow levels and snowfall, but either way, the snowfall is expected to come, and be heavy. After a possible 5+ day break with high pressure ridging (sorry, I will watch my language) and mostly sunny skies, we enter late January/ February with more snow storms possible. We are watching closely.
I got my fingers and skis crossed
Come on just a little boondockn'g is that too much to ask?
...
I like his attitude !
NOAA models still holding for 1" of rain in Nor Cal next weekend. Below is a forecast for Squaw Valley.
Squaw Valley Weather Blog
All Eyes on Next Week
Submitted by weatherman on January 10, 2012 - 4:48am
in Weather
We have been watching for a possible change in the weather pattern for next week and*it is now looking*likely that it will*happen.* The forecast models always struggle when a big change is happening and they*cam change daily until we get closer to the storms.* We know that the telelconnection patterns are changing towards a more favorable state, so we are just waiting for the forecast models to get a better handle on what will happen next week.
The past couple*days the European*& GFS forecast models have been consistent with bringing in snow by the middle of next week and several storms making it last at least a week.* The latest GFS model has been back and forth between the heaviest snow next week staying just to our North or coming into Northern CA.*
The key is going to be where the ridge sets up near Alaska for next week.* If it is a little too far North and West over the Bering Sea then the ridge could build back off the coast of CA keeping the storms just to our North.* But if the ridge builds more over Southern Alaska or down near the Aleutians and pushes into Western Canada, then we could see a prolonged period of snowstorms as the storm track is pushed down the coast into CA.
Either way the weather looks a lot more interesting going forward.* The teleconnection forecasts are favorable for unsettled weather to last through the end of the month.* Stay tuned for an update later in the week as we get close and hopefully the forecast models come to an agreement.* BA
Bring it on!
Squaw Valley Weather Blog
All Eyes on Next Week
Submitted by weatherman on January 10, 2012 - 4:48am
in Weather
We have been watching for a possible change in the weather pattern for next week and*it is now looking*likely that it will*happen.* The forecast models always struggle when a big change is happening and they*cam change daily until we get closer to the storms.* We know that the telelconnection patterns are changing towards a more favorable state, so we are just waiting for the forecast models to get a better handle on what will happen next week.
The past couple*days the European*& GFS forecast models have been consistent with bringing in snow by the middle of next week and several storms making it last at least a week.* The latest GFS model has been back and forth between the heaviest snow next week staying just to our North or coming into Northern CA.*
The key is going to be where the ridge sets up near Alaska for next week.* If it is a little too far North and West over the Bering Sea then the ridge could build back off the coast of CA keeping the storms just to our North.* But if the ridge builds more over Southern Alaska or down near the Aleutians and pushes into Western Canada, then we could see a prolonged period of snowstorms as the storm track is pushed down the coast into CA.
Either way the weather looks a lot more interesting going forward.* The teleconnection forecasts are favorable for unsettled weather to last through the end of the month.* Stay tuned for an update later in the week as we get close and hopefully the forecast models come to an agreement.* BA
Bring it on!
Forecasting TWO storms from 18 to 26 January.
Snow levels have been forecasting 1-2 feet high ... 7500 - 8000 --- 9000 feet.
Expects storms to start north and work its way to at least Mammoth.
Los Angeles had a "dusting" from the storm this weekend 15 JAN.
For WED- SAT
KERN up to 60% chance
Mammoth up to 70%
Truckee 90 % for 20 Jan
SLC up to 40%
ON a good note Whistler BC has over 17 feet ... with 2 feet of fresh this Jan.
Snow levels have been forecasting 1-2 feet high ... 7500 - 8000 --- 9000 feet.
Expects storms to start north and work its way to at least Mammoth.
Los Angeles had a "dusting" from the storm this weekend 15 JAN.
For WED- SAT
KERN up to 60% chance
Mammoth up to 70%
Truckee 90 % for 20 Jan
SLC up to 40%
ON a good note Whistler BC has over 17 feet ... with 2 feet of fresh this Jan.
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