http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...look-2014-2015-u-s-winter-forecast?groupid=16
After a record year in the Midwest & the East Coast, El Nino will have a huge impact going into the 2014-2015 winter season. Here in late June we see a 76% chance of El Nino at this point and we feel this is GAME ON in a month or so!
The biggest influence will be in the South as the southern jet and El Nino produce a few big time winter storms with snow and ice. The key to the entire winter will be the intensity of the now trending El Nino. The trend would be to a moderate to perhaps strong El Nino and depending on where you live this will have an small or large impact on your winter forecast.
HOW EL NINO WORKS
EL NINO IS BACK AFTER FOUR YEARS
After a long 4-year absence of El Nino we here at Liveweatherblogs.com are very confident we are heading into a weak to moderate El Nino. A weak to moderate El Nino for the area means a variety of winter weather. We will see wild swings in temperatures throughout the winter.
We have been in a neutral pattern since May of 2012 and before that we were in a La Nina period from June 2010 to April of 2012. The odds are in favor of an El Nino this winter and the chart below indicates that it will start over spring and summer.
So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a moderate to maybe strong event.
WHICH TYPE OF EL NINO WILL SHOW UP ?
So we are thinking a MODERATE TO STRONG EL NINO with above average rainfall this winter. Most of the severe weather will come later in the winter around February
The biggest factor is El Nino followed by the track of the Southern Jet Stream. This track will decide on the rain, severe weather and even tornadoes so be ready for some of everything!
http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/long-range-forecasts/summer-2014-by-city
STJ-Sub Tropical Jet Stream is like a railroad track for storms. It often divides the cold from the warm air and storms/low pressure often form here.
AO-Aritic Oscillation is the period of cold weather coming from the poles. The lower this index goes the colder it gets. The colder low numbers can be the polar vortex.
NAO-North Atlantic Oscillation is the pedulum of weather that moves the Highs and Low near Greenland and the North Atlantic Ocean. That swings can decide not only cold air pushes to the U.S. and Canada but a craved out storm track....mainly for the East Coast.
PNA-Pacific North American Teleconnection runs the weather coming off the Alaskan region and down into the Pacific Northwest. It can change tracks from Seattle to Los Angeles and make the storms shift north or south as they head into the Midwest and East.
The South will see ice again this winter and that includes Atlanta, Birmingham and Memphis. An active jet stream is expect so throw in a few severe weather events in January and February esp. in Florida and Texas. Overall snowfall will be down nationwide and nowhere near the record winter of 2013-2014. California still looks to benefit the most from a wet and wild El Nino and jet stream come this winter.
Temperatures will be much warmer this winter than the icebox of last winter with the biggest change in the Midwest. The Pacific Northwest will be warmer than normal and this will impact the rainfall and snowpack across many states.
The Desert Southwest and Southern California will see above average cloud cover along with abundant snowfall and rain so expect things to be on the cooler side as far as temps go. The South will be warmer as numerous Gulf of Mexico systems bring in warm moisture tropical air almost anytime througout the winter.
The Ohio Valley sits about average for temps and the Midwest will be slighty above average with temps esp. in the first half of winter. The East and New England will sit close to normal overall but the winter will have a split personality with a warm start and cold finish.
So there you have it the Winter Outlook 2014-2015 from the staff meteorologists here at Liveweatherblogs.com.
After a record year in the Midwest & the East Coast, El Nino will have a huge impact going into the 2014-2015 winter season. Here in late June we see a 76% chance of El Nino at this point and we feel this is GAME ON in a month or so!
The biggest influence will be in the South as the southern jet and El Nino produce a few big time winter storms with snow and ice. The key to the entire winter will be the intensity of the now trending El Nino. The trend would be to a moderate to perhaps strong El Nino and depending on where you live this will have an small or large impact on your winter forecast.
HOW EL NINO WORKS
EL NINO IS BACK AFTER FOUR YEARS
After a long 4-year absence of El Nino we here at Liveweatherblogs.com are very confident we are heading into a weak to moderate El Nino. A weak to moderate El Nino for the area means a variety of winter weather. We will see wild swings in temperatures throughout the winter.
We have been in a neutral pattern since May of 2012 and before that we were in a La Nina period from June 2010 to April of 2012. The odds are in favor of an El Nino this winter and the chart below indicates that it will start over spring and summer.
So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a moderate to maybe strong event.
WHICH TYPE OF EL NINO WILL SHOW UP ?
So we are thinking a MODERATE TO STRONG EL NINO with above average rainfall this winter. Most of the severe weather will come later in the winter around February
The biggest factor is El Nino followed by the track of the Southern Jet Stream. This track will decide on the rain, severe weather and even tornadoes so be ready for some of everything!
THE BIG PLAYERS THIS WINTER
STJ-Sub Tropical Jet Stream is like a railroad track for storms. It often divides the cold from the warm air and storms/low pressure often form here.
AO-Aritic Oscillation is the period of cold weather coming from the poles. The lower this index goes the colder it gets. The colder low numbers can be the polar vortex.
NAO-North Atlantic Oscillation is the pedulum of weather that moves the Highs and Low near Greenland and the North Atlantic Ocean. That swings can decide not only cold air pushes to the U.S. and Canada but a craved out storm track....mainly for the East Coast.
PNA-Pacific North American Teleconnection runs the weather coming off the Alaskan region and down into the Pacific Northwest. It can change tracks from Seattle to Los Angeles and make the storms shift north or south as they head into the Midwest and East.
WINTER OUTLOOK 2014-2015
The overall idea this winter is to keep most of the snow in the Northeast and New England in the East. The Ohio Valley will have a near normal winter as far as snowfall and the Midwest will miss out on the big snow like last winter. The Great Plains will also see a lower than average winter for snow. The biggest snow drought will be in the Pacific Northwest with only 50% of the normal snowfall. If you ski or snowboard in the Rockies and Southern California oh you are in for a good winter. Denver could be in the middle of a major snow pattern and this would extend to the New Mexico, Colorado, Utah and Arizona Mountains.
The South will see ice again this winter and that includes Atlanta, Birmingham and Memphis. An active jet stream is expect so throw in a few severe weather events in January and February esp. in Florida and Texas. Overall snowfall will be down nationwide and nowhere near the record winter of 2013-2014. California still looks to benefit the most from a wet and wild El Nino and jet stream come this winter.
Temperatures will be much warmer this winter than the icebox of last winter with the biggest change in the Midwest. The Pacific Northwest will be warmer than normal and this will impact the rainfall and snowpack across many states.
The Desert Southwest and Southern California will see above average cloud cover along with abundant snowfall and rain so expect things to be on the cooler side as far as temps go. The South will be warmer as numerous Gulf of Mexico systems bring in warm moisture tropical air almost anytime througout the winter.
The Ohio Valley sits about average for temps and the Midwest will be slighty above average with temps esp. in the first half of winter. The East and New England will sit close to normal overall but the winter will have a split personality with a warm start and cold finish.
So there you have it the Winter Outlook 2014-2015 from the staff meteorologists here at Liveweatherblogs.com.
