2011-2012 Snowfall Prediction/guess or -just fun with numbers-

[PowderMiner]

Ok this is the earliest I have done this calculation, but the NWS has a new “more” ”accurate” ENSO (La Nina/El Nino) model, CFSv2.

I will spare the charts…
I am predicting a general Washington snowfall of 121% of average for 2011-2012 winter with a 62% chance of more than that and 38% chance of less.

Also, a 24% chance of a very heavy snowfall season with just a 10% chance of a poor (not catastrophic) snowfall season.

Just for the record my past-modeled predictions were:
2007-2008, 121% act ~139%
2008-2009, 93% act ~ 88%
2009-2010, 77% act ~70%
2010-2011, 132% act ~115%(peak) 150+%(pac)

act represents a “generally” actual based from the Plain and Snoqualmie data and may not represent every riding area, that is why I put approximate.

 

[Bagger]

Well, I sure hope your right!
Fun with numbers . . . ok.

Bag

 

[Wish]

I'm good with that!! I hope you're right!

 

[PowderMiner]

Looks good since the news is talking about it... almost wish they weren’t though; they might jinx it!

Here is the link to the weekly update and forcast that i use to make my model

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

[PowderMiner]

My pre season model predicted 121%

Although my model looks at cummulative snow for Plain and Snoqualmie i feel it represents Washington, at least the north central Cascades as a whole.

Snoqalmie has ~4 more weeks of measurable snow possible, but the dot is reporting 103% cumulative sofar. and Midway (near Plain) is at 121.4%

Looks like the model was dialed in this year. April 1-6th is the general peak snowpack.

Stevens 115% (26 years) (Avg data set)
Blewett 122% (25 years)
Harts Pass 113% (24 years)
Elbow Lake (Baker) 156% (11 years)
Paradise 115% (26 years)
Alpine Meadow 156% (12 years)

 

[kartorium]

Interesting to also check out current depths as well. Based on that % of average the interesting thing is how solid the snow pack is relative to average.

http://www.nwac.us/data/CLISNO

 

[PowderMiner]

That is a good data source, a long data set. I think they take a "recent", not all, average to calculate "climate average".

Crystal, where they were skiing until July 2011, is 121% over last year? Wow

Some of the folks i work with were thinking last winter was glacier Growing! I looked at a few last week and the snow-water equivelent was even better.

 

[kartorium]

Yeah, I think you might be right. The way I read it is the climate average for April 1st snow depth is *, then they compare that with current April 1 depth. However, to me it seems like they'd wouldn't limit the data to "recent" to calculate the average. You might as well use all the available data. I'm guessing annual snow depth data for April 1st isn't as complete as mid winter dates though.

Some zones we ride and ski carried snow way late into the summer last year, and I was actually joking with some people about some areas glaciating. Some of the 6k plus north facing bowls in the cascades seem to have potential for growth. I'm no expert though.

I do like your predictions Powder Miner! Will be looking for them again in the fall

 

[PowderMiner]

I posted, somewhere, that a neighbor ran into some USGS scientist from back east that were up at the Lyman Glacier taking measurements. They said that the north cascade glaciers had gained 30% back in the last 3 years of what they lost the previous 10 years.

It is common practice to have a “localized” sub-set of data to make comparisons to calling it % of “normal” or “climate”. Some data sets will clearly state the data set, such as, % of “10 year average”. Also might be that a third party is using the data and purposely using a shorter subset to “normalize” varying available data sets.

The ENSO models are a little conflicted going into next winter and looking to be possibly staying neutral or slightly trending to a week El Nino. I’m a little concerned but ya never know!

By the way when researching glaciers or climate generally it seems the data will end 2008. That may be innocent but for the Northwest the last few years have had a substantial spring snowpack and will be interesting to see if there is any updates to reports or if they are just cherry picking data to get at their bias. Not saying that the glaciers are not melting or disappearing, just eerily quiet about the last three years. Lets hope it is not just a blip.

 

[diamonddave]

Nice work on the predictions....

BTW, you didn't happen to make a prediction for the 04-05 season ????

Just wondering about that one.

 

[PowderMiner]

If i have time i will project it back to the BAD years to see if it picks them up and then maybe increase accuracy looking forward or confirm potential bad news.

Here is a good link to a North Cascade Glacier study with data through 2011. I think they might have Bias (like the statement "Seven consecutive years with a decrease in glacial mass confirms global warming” Would they say the contray if seven consecutive years of increase???, heck NO) but i think their data and reporting seem good.

http://www.nps.gov/noca/naturescience/glacial-mass-balance6.htm