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WINTER 2010 OUTLOOK (Temps, Precip, Detailed Long Range, All Regions(USA) included)
Posted by: wjp201111 (IP Logged)
Date: August 30, 2009 12:39AM
Here it is! We have completed Our Winter 2010 Outlook(I WORKED WITH ANOTHER ANONYMOUS FORECASTER IN ADDITION TO MYSELF). This Outlook Includes:
-temperature Map
-Precipitation Map
-Main Discussion
-Detailed Long Range
OUR FORECAST IS BASED UPON LONG RANGE MODEL THINKING, OUR OWN THINKING, ALONG WITH ANALOGS/HISTORICAL TRENDS, SOLAR ACTIVITY, & SOME IMPUT FROM OTHER FORECASTERS. ENJOY
Quick Tips, (DETAILED LONG RANGE AT THE BOTTOM!!!!!!)
PLEASE BE RESPECTFUL
Please read to End DETALED LONG RANGE AT THE BOTTOM!!!!!
As of the time this Outlook was posted, the El Nino, While Warming slightly, looks very disorganized, and poorly structured as Warm Anomalies extend far out. As we Head into the Fall, My personal thinking is for the El Nino to PEAK in FALL in Moderate Form. HOWEVER... WE Both are calling for the El Nino to Fizzle to WEAK during the Dec-Jan_Feb timeframe, and it should NOT Be the Main Driver in the Pattern. However, its effects will be noticable, NOT by Temperature standards, Instead it will make its presence known in the form of a More persistant Single Storm Track, An almost Non-Existant SW ATL ridge, and the Return of the Noreaster!
Mild Temperatures Will Be Noticable Across Most of Florida & S GA & S Alabama as this area will be south of the Upper convective storm zones, but having moist airmass & above normal Rainfall/ T storms, While Parts of the SW Pacific coast will Recieve above Average temps mostly due to a warm pacific low.
Other Than Those Limited Mild Temperatures, There seems to be the possibility of a Very Stormy & SNOWY Febuary. Areas That COULD See Heavy Snows & BLIZZARDS include: NEW ENGLAND, THE I95 CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON DC TO BANGOR, THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, THE APP. MOUNTAINS, THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS(Including Northern & Central TX), OHIO VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE ENTIRE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THE HIGH ELEVATION PNW, AND POTENTIALLY THE MID SOUTH.
A MONSTER EAST COAST STORM is Possible in Mid Febuary, as Storm Systems should be more "mature" during that time period. The East Coast apppears to Be In Line for at LEAST 3 Coastal Storms or "Noreaters" But there could be as many as 5 if these Calculations are correct.
As for the West, the Storm Track Can Vary. There will Be a period in Mid December When a strong Trough will Hang Over the PNW, And Storms will Drop From The Alaskan and Canadian Waters, Possibly Bringing the Lowlands of Seattle at Risk for snow. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD FOR THE PNW REGION, AS TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO JAN & FEB, WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. However, Storms will Continually Enter Anywhere from N california to The PNW generally, AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST CAN BE SLAMMED WITH MANY BLIZZARDS, Looks Like a Good Ski Year if this turns out correctly.
As for the California Drought Situation, It looks like Precipitation Over Most of the Area Will Be Near Average, as Southern California will be South of the Main Storm Track. Rainy & Windy Conditions will be common when storms come close, but overall, it should not be as Wet as One might think with a Weak El Nino.
For Eastern Snow Lovers, That Pesky SE Ridge Does not look like it will be popping Up For any Extended Period of time, and Folks In the Tenessee Valley, S App. Mountains, Mid South, Middle Atlantic, and I95 Corridor MIGHT have a SNOWY winter. HOWEVER, I CANNOT EXACTLY TELL WHERE SNOW WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WON'T, BECAUSE WHILE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE ONE THING, PINPOINTING WHERE THE SNOWY REGIONS WILL BE WILL BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. IF I WERE TO POST A SNOWFALL MAP, THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE ERRORS IN IT, AND I WOULD GET BASHED BADLY, LOL. So at this point, Don't Expect to see any snowfall map Anytime Soon. I can predict where snowstorms may breed, and where snow may fall significantly, but at this point, a map just for snowfall is out of the question, sorry
Anyhow, BELOW IS THE DETAILED LONG RANGE, Your region is Listed If you're in the Lower 48.
IMPORTANT!!!!! IF YOU LIVE IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, OR ANY REGION UP IN THE MOUNTAINS, (Rockies, Wasatch, Sierra, Cascades, Ect), ANYWHERE UP THERE, I Might not have covered your area as Thoroughly as the other Higher Populated areas. JUST KNOW THAT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COULD BE IN FOR A BRUTAL WINTER OF SNOWFALL IF YOUR UP HIGH!!!!!!!!! If your in the Valleys, more Average Conditions may be in store. IFF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, FEEL FREE TO ASK ME
.
ANYHOW, ONTO THE DETAILED LONG RANGE
Below is the Detailed Long Range, which I worked on with Me an one other Author!
THE FORECAST BELOW IS BASED UPON LONG RANGE MODEL THINKING, SOLAR ACTIVITY + A LITTLE OF OUR OWN CALCULATIONS.
Here We Go!
WINTER 2010 OUTLOOK (Temps, Precip, Detailed Long Range, All Regions(USA) included)
Posted by: wjp201111 (IP Logged)
Date: August 30, 2009 12:39AM
Here it is! We have completed Our Winter 2010 Outlook(I WORKED WITH ANOTHER ANONYMOUS FORECASTER IN ADDITION TO MYSELF). This Outlook Includes:
-temperature Map
-Precipitation Map
-Main Discussion
-Detailed Long Range
OUR FORECAST IS BASED UPON LONG RANGE MODEL THINKING, OUR OWN THINKING, ALONG WITH ANALOGS/HISTORICAL TRENDS, SOLAR ACTIVITY, & SOME IMPUT FROM OTHER FORECASTERS. ENJOY
Quick Tips, (DETAILED LONG RANGE AT THE BOTTOM!!!!!!)
PLEASE BE RESPECTFUL
Please read to End DETALED LONG RANGE AT THE BOTTOM!!!!!
As of the time this Outlook was posted, the El Nino, While Warming slightly, looks very disorganized, and poorly structured as Warm Anomalies extend far out. As we Head into the Fall, My personal thinking is for the El Nino to PEAK in FALL in Moderate Form. HOWEVER... WE Both are calling for the El Nino to Fizzle to WEAK during the Dec-Jan_Feb timeframe, and it should NOT Be the Main Driver in the Pattern. However, its effects will be noticable, NOT by Temperature standards, Instead it will make its presence known in the form of a More persistant Single Storm Track, An almost Non-Existant SW ATL ridge, and the Return of the Noreaster!
Mild Temperatures Will Be Noticable Across Most of Florida & S GA & S Alabama as this area will be south of the Upper convective storm zones, but having moist airmass & above normal Rainfall/ T storms, While Parts of the SW Pacific coast will Recieve above Average temps mostly due to a warm pacific low.
Other Than Those Limited Mild Temperatures, There seems to be the possibility of a Very Stormy & SNOWY Febuary. Areas That COULD See Heavy Snows & BLIZZARDS include: NEW ENGLAND, THE I95 CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON DC TO BANGOR, THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, THE APP. MOUNTAINS, THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS(Including Northern & Central TX), OHIO VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE ENTIRE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THE HIGH ELEVATION PNW, AND POTENTIALLY THE MID SOUTH.
A MONSTER EAST COAST STORM is Possible in Mid Febuary, as Storm Systems should be more "mature" during that time period. The East Coast apppears to Be In Line for at LEAST 3 Coastal Storms or "Noreaters" But there could be as many as 5 if these Calculations are correct.
As for the West, the Storm Track Can Vary. There will Be a period in Mid December When a strong Trough will Hang Over the PNW, And Storms will Drop From The Alaskan and Canadian Waters, Possibly Bringing the Lowlands of Seattle at Risk for snow. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD FOR THE PNW REGION, AS TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO JAN & FEB, WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. However, Storms will Continually Enter Anywhere from N california to The PNW generally, AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST CAN BE SLAMMED WITH MANY BLIZZARDS, Looks Like a Good Ski Year if this turns out correctly.
As for the California Drought Situation, It looks like Precipitation Over Most of the Area Will Be Near Average, as Southern California will be South of the Main Storm Track. Rainy & Windy Conditions will be common when storms come close, but overall, it should not be as Wet as One might think with a Weak El Nino.
For Eastern Snow Lovers, That Pesky SE Ridge Does not look like it will be popping Up For any Extended Period of time, and Folks In the Tenessee Valley, S App. Mountains, Mid South, Middle Atlantic, and I95 Corridor MIGHT have a SNOWY winter. HOWEVER, I CANNOT EXACTLY TELL WHERE SNOW WILL FALL AND WHERE IT WON'T, BECAUSE WHILE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE ONE THING, PINPOINTING WHERE THE SNOWY REGIONS WILL BE WILL BE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. IF I WERE TO POST A SNOWFALL MAP, THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE ERRORS IN IT, AND I WOULD GET BASHED BADLY, LOL. So at this point, Don't Expect to see any snowfall map Anytime Soon. I can predict where snowstorms may breed, and where snow may fall significantly, but at this point, a map just for snowfall is out of the question, sorry
Anyhow, BELOW IS THE DETAILED LONG RANGE, Your region is Listed If you're in the Lower 48.
IMPORTANT!!!!! IF YOU LIVE IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, OR ANY REGION UP IN THE MOUNTAINS, (Rockies, Wasatch, Sierra, Cascades, Ect), ANYWHERE UP THERE, I Might not have covered your area as Thoroughly as the other Higher Populated areas. JUST KNOW THAT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST COULD BE IN FOR A BRUTAL WINTER OF SNOWFALL IF YOUR UP HIGH!!!!!!!!! If your in the Valleys, more Average Conditions may be in store. IFF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, FEEL FREE TO ASK ME
ANYHOW, ONTO THE DETAILED LONG RANGE
Below is the Detailed Long Range, which I worked on with Me an one other Author!
THE FORECAST BELOW IS BASED UPON LONG RANGE MODEL THINKING, SOLAR ACTIVITY + A LITTLE OF OUR OWN CALCULATIONS.
Here We Go!
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