Mammoth weather forecaster see no SIGNIFICANT snow fall (less than a foot) for MAMMOTH BUT there might be a dumping north of Mammoth to Washington on Sunday 9 February.
Another Cold System will move through Thursday and Friday with warm advection pattern developing over the weekend…..Thus freezing levels on the rise over the weekend….
Tuesday February 4, 2014
Posted at 9:54 am by Howard
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I have looked at the all the guidance this morning and the west coast ridge is still doing the same thing. That is, moving back and forth between 140West and 120west. So either its going to be colder then normal and drier then normal or, warmer then normal and drier then normal. In either situation and in between
we can get light or occasionally a moderate shots of precipitation. However, your not going to get to the pattern that we want along the west coast without a shift in the high latitude block in the -WPO position eastward to the -EPO.
The MJO has been locked in 6/7 and it keeps circulating the same like a skipping record. If this were a moderately strong Enso year the subtropical jet would have swept the legs out from under the current west coast pattern.
Now a new Climatologist claims that “it is” the negative phase of the PDO with the addition of the neutral ENSO conditions for the excessive west coast dryness. The claim is that during the negative phase of the PDO and with its protracted cycle in time, drought over the west are more common because of the effect of weaker and far fewer warm phase El Nino Events. Possibly……there is certainly more logic in that statement as compared to others lately. One comment about the weather in the east this winter, is that this years winter has proven that the AO and NAO in the positive phase can certainly produce very cold winters without those oscillations being in their deep negative phase for long periods of time. Which is more of a concern to long range forecasters I think.
WX discussion:
OK….here we go again….
With the eastern pacific ridge out about 135 to 140west, another system will makes its way into the pacific NW over the next few days allowing another shot of very cold air to advect into the Great Basin. There will be an increase of wind over the crest Wednesday into Thursday as the heights fall north to south instead of the preferable west to east. The upper Jet is going to spin up to the south of us, pulling in a little pacific air and moisture for
some light snowfall Thursday 6 FEB and into the night. (2 to 5 inches snow). Then as the system shifts east Friday, the upper jet will lift north through us into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend and become anti cyclonically curved. Thereafter, the upper ridge axis sets up over or just off the CA coast for an extended period.
Meanwhile over the weekend, the hose appears to be pointed at Northern CA and eventually the pacific northwest. So again Mammoth gets the southern remains of the moisture fetch with higher snow levels over the weekend and early next week.
Looking at the climate models, they still insist upon a significant wet period, for the northern and central sierra in their 45 day outlooks. However, either they are totally wrong, or they are too fast, as I see nothing in the ensemble’s suggesting that this far south.
Yes….with an anti cyclonically curved jet as by buddy Tom C points out, you can get significant precipitation with heights between 576DM and 570DM. However, I have not seen any sign of any sustained robust upper subtropical jet anywhere near this latitude/longitude to suggest that is going to happen yet, except possibly this Sunday for a time. We might get a moderate shot of precipitation from the Hose to the north of us. Otherwise, we wait and wait for later in February and March, while hoping our water storage will be blessed with more water….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………
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